Mr. Buffett said tariffs are "a form of warfare." What risk avoidance techniques can be learned from the portfolio of the wise?

March 3,The S&P 500 index experienced its largest decline this year.This comes as the driving force behind the AI market, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ iswith a 9% decline.Reached an all-time high last week.Concerns about the outlook for the USA economy have intensified due to the deterioration of the economic outlook and the implementation of Trump's tariffs., leading to risk aversion.

Some investors are being particularly cautious about risks.They have sold all ETFs that track the S&P 500 Index.The investment guru,Warren Buffett.Under the leadership of Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway has sold approximately 158 billion dollars worth of Stocks over the past two years, and completely liquidated its ETF linked to the S&P 500 Index in the October to December 2024 period. As of the end of December 2024, the cash on hand reached 334.2 billion dollars (approximately 50 trillion yen), which is the highest level ever. Looking at the performance so far in 2025 (up to March 3), the S&P 500 Index has declined by 0.5%, while $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ IsA 12.5% increase.And it seems that the wise one has demonstrated foresight once again.

Mr. BuffettOn March 2,Regarding tariffs.、「a certain kind of warfare 」(Tariffs are an ‘act of war, to some degree’). Given that tariffs and their impact on inflation and economic growth have become the biggest concerns for investors, Mr. Buffett's words sound like a warning. Taking into account that uncertainty remains strong, let's take another look at the recent portfolio of the sage.andExplored risk aversion techniques and investment ideas.

Berkshire's cash on hand is at an all-time high.
From the 13F report submitted by Berkshire Hathaway on February 15, it was revealed that Berkshire further sold off its holdings in the October to December 2024 period and increased its cash reserves.

(The 13F is a stockholding report that institutional investors file with the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) on a quarterly basis.)

As of December 2024, Berkshire'sthe cash on hand (cash + U.S. Short Treasury Bonds) stood at325.2 billion dollars as of the end of September.from334.2 billion dollarsexpanded towhich is the highest level ever. It is the result of promoting sales rather than purchases of stocks, resulting in cash on hand ofthe amount of stock holdingsof267.2 billion dollarsIt has significantly exceeded. Considering the adjustments in USA stocks until 2025, it can be said that this was a wise position adjustment.

Main changes in Berkshire's portfolio.
1) Complete sale of S&P 500 Index-linked ETFs, additional sale of financial stocks like Bank of America.
Berkshire sold all of the two ETFs linked to the S&P 500 Index in October-December 2024 ( $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ ). $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ や $Citigroup (C.US)$ ETC reduced positions in financial stocks. Investors were focusing on this. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ There were no additional sales regarding this.

Mr. Buffett said tariffs are "a form of warfare." What risk avoidance techniques can be learned from the portfolio of the wise?

2) One new acquisition, additional acquisitions of Occidental and Domino's Pizza.
Berkshire will import and sell Beer from October to December 2024. $Constellation Brands (STZ.US)$ Acquired new shares in the previous quarter. $Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US)$ や $Pool Corp (POOL.US)$ Increased Shareholding in. $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ Also acquired additional shares of major Petroleum firm, increasing the shareholding ratio (Berkshire's ratio relative to the total issued shares of the respective stock) to 28.2%.

Learn investment strategies from the wise man's portfolio.
1) Should stocks be sold to accumulate cash?
If following Berkshire's lead in selling stocks and increasing cash on hand, it might simply lead to selling stocks for cash. However, in reality, it's not just that. Because,the cash on hand isthe total of cash and USA short-term bondsSo, USA short-term bonds are earning short-term interest. For example, the yield on USA 3-month Treasury bonds from October to December 2024 was 4.5-5.0%. Therefore, when following Mr. Buffett in cashing out, it may be necessary to combine investments in USA short-term bonds or ETFs linked to them.

Related Stocks
$Short-Treasury Bond Ishares (SHV.US)$
◇Listed on the Nasdaq in the USA, with the base currency: Dollar.
◇The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF aims to achieve investment results that correspond to the performance of an index composed of U.S. Treasury securities with maturities of less than one year.

$iShares 0-3 Month US Treasury Bond ETF (2012.JP)$
◇Listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the base currency: Yen.
Aim to track the FTSE USA Bond 0-3 Month Index (domestic investment-grade, yen-based). The FTSE USA Bond 0-3 Month Index (domestic investment-grade, yen-based) is composed of securities from the US Treasury with a remaining maturity of less than 3 months, and is a Bond Index that is weighted by Market Cap for each security.

2) Invest according to Berkshire's portfolio?
Regarding Berkshire's portfolio, the investment actions other than cash on hand reflect Berkshire's investment philosophies, and following them could be a possible option.

Berkshire'sAs of the end of December 2024ofTOP 10 Hold PositionsWhen checking, it is as follows. The top position is still $Apple (AAPL.US)$ So, the second place is $American Express (AXP.US)$ , the third place is $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、4位は $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$ , the fifth place is $Chevron (CVX.US)$）and so on. Among them, Bank of AmericaRegarding this, Berkshire hasContinuing to sell.It has been revealed.

6th place $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ will occur from October to December 2024.This additional acquisition raised the shareholding ratio to 28.2%.Following this, $Moody's (MCO.US)$ や $The Kraft Heinz (KHC.US)$ 、 $Chubb Ltd (CB.US)$ 、 $DaVita (DVA.US)$ In addition, there was no change in the number of Stocks.

If following the trading behavior of the top 10 Hold Positions, Berkshire acquired additional shares. $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ It may be mentioned as a candidate. Also, there may be a continuation of long-term holding without selling. $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$ や $Moody's (MCO.US)$ It could also be a viable option. Both companies announced earnings that exceeded market expectations during this earnings report season. Alternatively, $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ directly holding could also be one of the options. In that case, it is important to note that Berkshire's profits are affected not only by investment returns but also by the impact of the insurance business.