⚔️ Morning War Room Briefing – June 17, 2025 ⚔️ The Roman Su...

Robert Musella wrote a post · Jun 17 22:14

⚔️ Morning War Room Briefing – June 17, 2025 ⚔️
The Roman Sun Tzu Method™ | Market Intelligence. Tactical Execution.

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“Volatility whispers. Oil screams. Retail collapses. But equities drift—until the illusion breaks.”

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🌍 Global Snapshot: Red Skies, False Calm

Global markets are under quiet stress. European indices are decisively lower—DAX down 0.84%, CAC 40 off 0.73%, and FTSE 100 red as well. Asia was mixed overnight, with strength in Japan offset by weakness in Hong Kong and Shanghai. In the U.S., all three major indices opened red:
• Dow: 42,372 ▼ -0.33%
• Nasdaq: 19,623 ▼ -0.39%
• S&P 500: 6,012 ▼ -0.34%

Despite soft selling, there is no capitulation, and the futures curve is still being treated as benign. This misalignment is key.

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📉 Retail Collapse, Consumer Cracks

This morning’s macro shock was clear:
• Retail Sales MoM: -0.9% (vs. -0.6%)
• Core Retail Sales MoM: -0.3% (vs. +0.2%)
• Previous data was revised down

This isn’t just a soft print—this is a confirmation of consumer pullback amid sticky inflation and fading COVID-era buffers. Credit stress and weaker job postings are now bleeding into consumption. Yet, markets are **not repricing earnings forecasts—**not yet.

🎯 Actionable Strategy:
• XRT July 19 $72.5 Puts – Target $70 gap fill. Retail ETF is vulnerable.
• WMT or COST Bearish Call Spreads – Slow bleed setups for stagflation narratives.

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🛢️ Oil Volatility Surges – The Real Signal

Forget the spot price—watch the volatility curve. Oil’s implied vol just broke to the highest level since 2022. This isn’t just pricing in supply risk—it’s pricing in war risk. The IAEA confirmed direct hits on underground enrichment at Natanz. That’s not nothing.

Dealers are now exposed. CTA models are turning long again. If Brent clears $85 this week, fund flows will chase.

🎯 Actionable Strategy:
• USO July 5 $80 Calls – Tactical exposure to ongoing escalation
• Crude Futures Call Verticals (NUSR July) – $75/$85 spread with risk-defined setup
• SLB / XOM / HAL Longs – Swing positions with war premium upside

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📊 VIX & Skew: The Market Is Hedging Quietly

VIX is drifting higher, but what matters more is skew—the cost of downside protection. The put-call skew is climbing again. Smart money is hedging a breakdown, not chasing upside.

SPX smile curves confirm this. Implied vol is elevated across the 5800–5900 strikes. The market is pricing in a tail event—but not reacting yet.

🎯 Actionable Strategy:
• SPY July 5 $600 Puts – Vol compression breakdown play
• SPY Put Fly (602/595/585) – Limited-risk crash hedge
• VIX July 20 Calls – Pure fear bid if news flow accelerates

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📐 Net GEX – The Compression Zone

The SPX GEX profile shows we are trapped:
• Call resistance: 6100
• Put support: 5800
• Spot: 6033

This range is now the battlefield. We are inside maximum dealer hedging territory. Any break below 5975 HVL opens the door to fast gamma acceleration.

🎯 Actionable Strategy:
• SPY July 5 Call Credit Spread (610/615) – Bet on rejection at GEX wall
• SPX Broken Wing Butterfly (603/597/590) – Risk-controlled directional move

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🔍 Single Stock Strategy Board

🔬 SMH / NVDA – Semis at a Turning Point
• SMH GEX: Heavy call buildup between 265–275
• NVDA: Dense GEX through 146–149

Semis are still bid, but dealer flow is saturated. One headline, and flows flip.

🎯 SMH Strategy:
• SMH July 5 $270/$275 Call Spread – Only chase if QQQ holds above 460
• Put Hedge: SMH July 5 $260 Put if weakness in NVDA breaks

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🧠 PLTR – Stealth Accumulation or Setup Trap?

PLTR remains pinned between 140–144, with the heaviest open interest at 140. The pattern looks bullish, but call walls are being sold into.

🎯 PLTR Strategy:
• PLTR July 5 $145 Covered Calls – Income strategy with upside cap
• PLTR July $137.5 Put – If 140 fails on volume

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🔐 PANW – Cyber Stability in a Volatile Tape

Call buyers stacked 200–205. PANW is the cleanest chart in the group.

🎯 PANW Strategy:
• PANW July 5 $200/$210 Call Spread
• Stop under $195, breakout if war escalates

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⚡ TSLA – Overstretched, Dealer Drag Incoming

TSLA GEX shows saturation between 322–328. Dealer flow suggests reversal risk.

🎯 TSLA Strategy:
• TSLA July 5 $325/$315 Bear Put Spread
• Or Straddle > Breakdown near 322 if volatility returns

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🪙 GLD – Bid Holds, But Conviction Fades

GEX is rising around 312–315. Despite paper selling earlier, futures are now lifting XAUUSD again. Still a flight-to-safety setup—but don’t expect momentum until the next headline.

🎯 GLD Strategy:
• GLD July 5 $312/$317 Call Spread
• Or Short Put at $310, if comfortable with long assignment

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🔚 Final Word

“The dealers are trapped. The oil traders are bracing.
The smart money is hedging.

This isn’t a fear trade.
This is the quiet before something moves.”

We remain positioned for volatility, short bursts of trend, and thematic alignment in energy, defense, and AI.

⸻Disclaimer:

I am an investor in several of the stocks mentioned above, including $GLD, $USO, $PLTR, $NVDA, and $SMH. The opinions expressed here are my own. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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🔒 Patreon Teaser:

Want deeper breakdowns like this every morning?
My Patreon War Room opens in July 2025—you’ll get full access to daily GEX maps, macro strategy, options plays, and more under The Roman Sun Tzu Method™.

Strategy lives here. Emotion gets executed.
Stay tuned.
Prepare. Adapt. Conquer. ⚔️ 🛡️ ♻️

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Ton T : thanks for the analysis. really helpful

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Robert Musella OP Ton T : Appreciate that. Stay sharp. We’re just getting started.

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103267746 : very clear strategy with high conviction if only retail understand what was written here.

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Robert Musella OP 103267746 : Appreciate you recognizing the depth behind the post. That means a lot. Full breakdowns and strategic walk-throughs coming to Patreon on July 4th.

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103267746 Robert Musella OP : Surprise to see it tbh this usually comes from individual with extensive experience having worked in a prop firm esp before enforcement of the Volcker Rule

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Robert Musella OP 103267746 : That means a lot, especially coming from someone who clearly gets it. Prop desk instincts still matter. Strategy never goes out of style.

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103267746 Robert Musella OP : Looking fwd to the launching of your Patreon page

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Keleo : as usual Damn Insightful. Thanks

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