More money to flow into US stocks amid overnight trading boom, US elections and 1H fuelled momentum

The boom in overnight stock trading, on one hand, is stoking angst on Wall Street about potential trouble and increasing volatility after dark. Some industry veterans think oversized moves and rising short-term speculation could also put added pressure on markets outside of the US. Given financial conditions are easing from July (with the Fed allowing its balance sheet to run off), we could continue to see record inflows into US shares.

We usually see a median US bull market rise 100%. Plus, in favor right now, we're in a US Presidential election year where markets are positive 80% of the time. Plus, we just closed off a solid half year for equities. When the S&P 500 has gained 10% in a half-year, the second half usually delivers solid returns too, where returns have been positive 89% of the time.

But do consider that closer to the election, we could see volatility pick up, as that's what usually happens around September and October. Typically, after an election, we see a rebound/relief rally as clarity around Federal policies picks up once markets know who is in office.