Market Proxy suggests higher Fed neutral rate

Futures markets are pricing in a neutral Fed funds rate closer to 4.00% than to 2.60% - which is the Federal Reserve’s own estimate.

As the federal government runs deficits relative to GDP around 6-7% consistently, and with major population growth from immigration, it appears that the Fed funds rate that neither stimulates nor depresses the economy is higher than it was from 2009-2019.