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Nigel Chong 庄证评 wrote a post · Mar 6 18:23

Market Dropping Hard – Here’s What I’m Thinking…

📉 The market has taken a hit, but here’s my perspective on what’s happening:
Image 1: My message to my members
Image 1: My message to my members
🔹 Image 1: A message I sent to Weekly Education Workshop members before Chinese New Year, highlighting the rise of the Hong Kong market. During our CNY gathering, I also mentioned that for those looking for mid-to-long-term positions without frequent trading, Hong Kong and A-shares were the ones to watch. Following China’s recent policies, stock prices had returned to pre-announcement levels, signaling an undervaluation. Meanwhile, the U.S. market had started transitioning into Stage 3.
Chart of Hang Seng Index
Chart of Hang Seng Index
🔹 Image 2: A chart of the $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Hang Seng Index. The cyan arrow marks January 27, when I identified the market’s strength. From that entry point to now, the index has seen a significant rally. This week, many Hong Kong stocks rebounded from the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating signs of a strong uptrend.
Relative Strength after Deepseek announcement
Relative Strength after Deepseek announcement
🔹 Image 3: A Relative Strength (RS) chart, which is a must-know for trend traders. Reviewing the past 100 years of the most successful U.S. traders, all emphasized the importance of Relative Strength. Normally, we compare individual stock performance against the market, but here, I compared the three major markets that Malaysian investors follow. The strength is clear at a glance – Hong Kong stocks are rallying, while U.S. and Malaysian stocks are in a downtrend.
Chart of QQQ, notice how it bounced from the 200SMA
Chart of QQQ, notice how it bounced from the 200SMA
🔹 Image 4: A $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) chart – since 2023, the 200-day SMA (yellow line) has been a key support level. The past two trading sessions showed signs of a rebound. Several other indicators also suggest that the U.S. market is in oversold territory, and I believe this pullback is likely over for now.
Chart of Natgate
Chart of Natgate
🔹 Image 5: $NATGATE (0270.MY)$ Natgate’s chart. I previously discussed the reasons for its sharp decline. Even though management held an emergency meeting after the crash, the stock remains at low levels. Personally, I rarely try to bottom-fish stocks. I believe Natgate has entered Stage 4, and no matter how great the past earnings were, price action is showing that the momentum is gone.
Chart of TOPGLOV and its price movement
Chart of TOPGLOV and its price movement
🔹 Image 6: A classic example of market psychology – Charts reflect sentiment faster than fundamentals, usually 2-3 quarters ahead of earnings reports. Take $TOPGLOV (7113.MY)$ as an example: If you track its past price movement and earnings releases, you’ll notice that by the time the best earnings were announced, the stock had already dropped 47% from its peak.
EPF annouced 6.3% dividend for 2024
EPF annouced 6.3% dividend for 2024
🔹 Image 7: EPF just announced a 6.3% dividend for 2024. But if you do some simple math, you might notice that the actual interest received doesn’t fully match the total savings. That’s because EPF calculates interest monthly, meaning that funds contributed later in the year receive less interest – it’s not a flat 6.3% on the total balance, which few people talk about. That said, EPF remains one of the best retirement savings plans globally, which is why I always encourage my non-investor friends to maximize their EPF contributions while they’re young.
Market Dropping Hard – Here’s What I’m Thinking…
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Market Dropping Hard – Here’s What I’m Thinking…
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Nigel Chong 庄证评
Specialise in Growth stocks 🏆 FB: Nigel Chong 庄证评 🌟 Influenced by MM VCP Trading Style & WON CANSLIM 💯
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