Major Players in HBM Market: A Comprehensive Assessment of SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron

The main players in the HBM market, including SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, will benefit from the strong growth and tight supply-demand relationship in the HBM market, as this has led to sustained significant pricing premiums for HBM and may increase the overall DRAM profit margin for each company.

Compared to its peers, SK Hynix has better production capacity and output. SK Hynix will maintain its market share of over 50% in the next 2-3 years, thanks to its extensive cooperation experience with major GPU customers (mainly Nvidia) and the company's strong supply chain, relatively higher production capacity, and yield. However, one factor that needs to be closely monitored is that SK Hynix's customers may need diversified suppliers to prevent supply chain bottlenecks and reduce costs.

For Samsung, it has the opportunity to gain market share in the mid-term as the company has developed the industry's first 12-Hi HBM3E. However, execution will be key as there is a significant gap between developing products and generating meaningful revenue from them. Samsung is the only company in the world capable of providing one-stop HBM services, which may help it maintain market share in the long term. Samsung already has experience in providing small-scale 2.5D packaging "H-Cube" for customers and created an advanced packaging team in 2022 to focus on this area. Samsung also mentioned at its March 20 annual shareholders' meeting that it expects revenue from its 2.5D packaging to reach $1 billion this year, indicating significant progress.

For Micron, the company will benefit as it narrows its focus on HBM3E. Micron is expected to surpass its peers starting in 2025, but whether it can gain significant market share will depend on how quickly it can expand its relatively small HBM capacity. According to TrendForce's research, in 2023, SK Hynix accounted for 46% to 49% of the HBM market, and Samsung's share was almost the same, while Micron only accounted for 4% to 6%, very small, but considering the sensitivity of AI chips, it cannot be ruled out that major technology companies tend to purchase products made in the United States. As can be seen from the above, the HBM market is basically divided between Samsung and SK Hynix, but they are not listed on the US stock market. If you want to invest in the HBM market, as a US stock investor, you can only choose Micron, which will bring some extra premium to the company and benefit its stock price performance.