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Nvidia smashes earnings, why muted market reaction?
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Main Deployment Strategy for the Bingwu Year - Review of February 4-9

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孫子的末代傳人 joined discussion · Feb 9 06:02
Main Deployment Strategy for the Bingwu Year - Review of February 4-9
I’m really not joking, $HAIDILAO (06862.HK)$ The emotional value provided by the staff is incredible; with just a few words, they managed to win over my child. Consumer-oriented companies generally lack deep moats, especially in the food and beverage category, which is too easily replicable. However, when a company’s service is exceptionally good, it can fully highlight its competitive advantage. Trading happens everywhere in daily life. I’ve grown to enjoy shopping more with my wife and kids recently, as the bustling streets fill me with inspiration. The service made me immediately pay attention to the stock price again. When I noticed that the domestic demand sector was starting to strengthen, Haidilao's trend appeared to be transitioning from the first phase into the second phase. I will actively monitor related mid-to-long term bullish positions. $BIHDLIH@EC2604A.C (17638.HK)$, defensive position at 16.3.
Main Deployment Strategy for the Bingwu Year - Review of February 4-9
The weather has suddenly turned cold recently, and my cat has been resting on our blanket every night; everyone, remember to keep warm. Meanwhile, I am also keeping an eye on related concept sectors, but so far, no opportunities have been found.
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The Hang Seng Index is still within the range, with resistance above at 27,200 and support below at 26,420; it will likely stay within this range before the Lunar New Year.
The tech stocks are still relatively weak, but $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ there has finally been a temporary rebound. It is expected that they will continue to trade in a narrow range before the Lunar New Year, with the former's range between 573 and 550, and the latter's range between 159 and 153. However, after the market closed last Friday, $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ there was news of a penalty, causing the stock price to break through the significant critical point of 75. The daily chart could form a head-and-shoulders pattern, and there is a high likelihood of another downward trend. $BIKUASO@EP2603A.P (19035.HK)$ The defensive position is at 74.4. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Both are still in a downtrend. Meituan has confirmed breaking through an important horizontal trading range, and there is almost no resistance on the left side, so be cautious of another sharp drop developing. $BIMTUAN@EP2612A.P (15409.HK)$ Unless it rebounds successfully above 95 again, the probability of a continued decline is very high. $SMIC (00981.HK)$ There was rare support at the key level of 65, leading to a rebound. For now, resistance above is at 76, and support below is at 69, so the chance of a range-bound movement is higher.
Hong Kong's IPO market remains hot, $MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$ Following the previous session, there was a significant rise, and at the same time, different newly listed stocks in AI and other sectors broke out simultaneously. $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$ $MINIMAX-WP (00100.HK)$ $HANS CNC (03200.HK)$ $GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ Recently, it has been clearly observed that newly listed stocks are evidently attracting capital. As long as there is a solid base, an upward trend is highly probable.
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The Nasdaq index has clearly broken below the crucial level of 25,000 points. Although there was a sharp rebound last Friday with fluctuations over 800 points, the system signals indicate a weakening trend. If the index falls below 24,900 again this week, it can essentially confirm a major peak for the Nasdaq in the first half of 2026.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Support appeared around the key level of 385, triggering a rebound; however, a clear weak trend has already emerged. If it breaks below 380 or lower in the future, a reversal trend can be confirmed. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ For four consecutive days, there has not been a higher low formation, and at the same time, the key 10-day moving average has been breached. Under these circumstances, one should start considering whether the short-term upward momentum has weakened, especially in the memory chip sector. $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Whether there is a gradual possibility of distribution occurring at higher levels.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Massive expenditures announced post-earnings report scared investors, but at the same time attracted capital interest to the chip sector. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ Jensen Huang's vote of confidence in the AI industry also led to a strong surge in related US stocks on Friday night. However, unless this situation continues strongly tonight and tomorrow night, the prevailing view remains cautious about high-level consolidation. Oracle, meanwhile, is essentially confirmed to be in the fourth phase of a downward trend. Another concern in the market is $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$OpenAI facing increasing competition; the company’s stock price reflects a loss of investor confidence, as it shows a decline at the weekly chart level.
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ It used to be the strongest performer among the Magnificent Seven stocks in the US, but has shown signs of topping out for three consecutive days, raising concerns that tech stocks may truly be reversing downwards from their highs. On the other hand, what was once considered a bull stock $Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$ The stock continues to plummet as reports indicate the company has removed a weight-loss drug from its offerings.
1. Holdings and transactions
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Continue bullish positions on soybean oil futures. There may be a significant chance of an energy crisis occurring in the Bing-Wu Year.
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Actively monitor $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ the relevant bearish deployment, as the share price has been falling continuously after a strong earnings start, and at the same time, the market is beginning to worry whether the cash flow of tech giants will weaken significantly.
2. Reflection
Since the beginning of spring started last Wednesday, we have officially entered the Bing-Wu Year. Throughout this year, different markets will gradually exhibit polarized trends: meaning funds will concentrate into strong sectors with dominant stocks or assets with stronger trends, while assets in a downward trend will be heavily sold off, with this phenomenon lasting longer over time. On the other hand, when individual stocks clearly show a downtrend, they will also be abandoned by the market. Contrasting movements will occur across various markets, and momentum along with clear trends will become increasingly important. In such a polarized market, what we need to learn is to trust the logic of trend dynamics. Spend less time finding reasons for every move and focus more on observing the rhythm of trends; this will surely be the biggest takeaway this Lunar New Year.
3. Deployment
Recently, gold quickly recovered losses after breaking below the key 5,000-point level; closely watch the performance of related stocks. $EFUND GOLD MI ETF (02824.HK)$ ; basically, the volatility rate of related stocks is more than twice that of gold. Going forward, gold is likely to hover at higher levels. $EFUND DIGITAL ETF (03434.HK)$ saw a sharp rebound today; essentially, this ETF holds Hong Kong and US stocks related to $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ movements; based on observations and estimated volatility, it’s projected to be more than twice as volatile.
Amid the interest rate cut cycle and severe volatility in global markets, high-yield assets are temporarily favored by capital. $E FUND (HK) MSCI Asia Pacific Select High Dividend Index ETF (03483.HK)$ According to data, none of the weakest telecom stocks recently are among the top ten holdings of this ETF, which has clearly outperformed the Hang Seng Index. $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ $CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$The data shows that the first dividend distribution was carried out in March (once every six months), and the final dividend yield is worth paying close attention to.
Among Hong Kong stock sectors, industrials and domestic demand are currently the strongest. $SANY INT'L (00631.HK)$ It is currently the leader in the industry. At the same time, another newly listed stock from the group has also seen a breakout performance, so it will be placed on the key watch list. $SANY HEAVY IND (06031.HK)$ In the US stock market, 3D printing has suddenly gained favor with investors; we will focus on whether it becomes the next big trend. $Proto Labs (PRLB.US)$ 。
Your comments and likes are the motivation for me to keep sharing. Thank you all.
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孫子的末代傳人
凡戰者，以正合，以奇勝 - 將孫子兵法應用在投資上 孫子大戶頻道創辦人
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