Joint U.S.-Israeli 'Operation Epic Fury' Bombs Bitcoin: What's Next?

Key Takeaways

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated military operation against Iran, triggering a sharp selloff in Bitcoin.

Weekend crypto trading becomes geopolitical risk 'pressure outlet,' threatening broader market contagion.

Historical patterns suggest panic-driven war selloffs are often followed by corrective rebounds.

$63,000 may serve as a critical support level for Bitcoin as the market awaits directional clarity.

The Trigger: Long-Brewing Conflict Erupts

On February 28, 2026, a long-anticipated military confrontation finally broke out. Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced a preemptive strike operation against Iran dubbed "Roaring Lion," declaring a nationwide state of emergency.

Almost simultaneously, U.S. President Trump posted a video statement on social media, announcing that American forces had commenced "major combat operations" in Iran. The Pentagon names Iran mission 'Operation Epic Fury'.

The cryptocurrency market's reaction was swift and severe. With traditional financial markets closed for the weekend, Bitcoin became the primary outlet for investors to express panic.

Within 15 minutes, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ plunged to $63,100—its lowest level since February 5—with 24-hour losses exceeding 6% at one point. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ briefly dropped to $1,840, while tokens like $Ripple (XRP.CC)$ and $Solana (SOL.CC)$ saw 24-hour declines surpassing 10%.

Bitcoin Price Action Analysis

From a technical perspective, this crash shattered the relative stability Bitcoin had maintained through late February. Before the geopolitical flare-up, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ had been trading in a narrow range between $65,500 and $66,000, continuing the gradual downtrend that characterized the month's end.

However, after today's 6:00 AM, prices rapidly breached the $65,000 threshold and accelerated toward $63,000. According to Coinglass data, over $100 million in positions were liquidated within the first hour.

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ is currently testing its lowest levels since February 23, when prices briefly touched the $63,000-$63,500 range before finding buyer support in that zone. If the current selling pressure persists, this structural support level may become the market's last line of defense. A breakdown could trigger even larger-scale technical selling.

Despite Bitcoin's reputation as "digital gold," institutional investors often treat it as a high-risk asset during actual geopolitical conflicts. When war risks escalate, investors tend toward "de-risking," shifting capital from volatile assets like cryptocurrencies to traditional safe havens such as the dollar, gold, and Treasury bonds.

Analysts note that the weekend selloff highlighted Bitcoin's unique role when traditional markets are closed—it becomes the only major liquid asset available for trading, absorbing the real-time pricing of all geopolitical risk.

Historical Context: Geopolitical Conflicts and Crypto Markets

Looking back, geopolitical conflicts have had distinctly phased impacts on crypto markets. In mid-June 2025, when Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion"—an airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities— $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ dropped from $110,000 to $103,000, a roughly 6% decline. Over $1 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours.

Surprisingly, Bitcoin rallied 62% over the two months following that conflict, reaching all-time highs. In April 2024, when Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, Bitcoin fell to $61,000 but subsequently broke through previous highs within months.

Market analysts call this phenomenon the "spring effect"—war-related short-term volatility often creates local bottoms, generating strategic buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Historical data shows that major geopolitical conflicts typically trigger immediate 5-15% flash crashes in Bitcoin and altcoins as risk assets. However, these declines are often accompanied by rapid rebounds—the key lies in distinguishing between short-term panic selling and fundamental long-term shifts.

It's worth noting, however, that the current market environment is more fragile. After the massive liquidation event in late 2025, Bitcoin has struggled to hold the $65,000-$70,000 range. From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin has experienced nearly three years of appreciation from $13,000 in late 2022 to its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. At such elevated levels, a deep correction is gradually releasing accumulated leverage risks and valuation bubbles.

How Should We React Now?

Facing current market volatility, investors need to adopt rational and prudent strategies.

In the near term, price swings driven by geopolitical conflicts are primarily emotion-driven and highly unpredictable. The $63,000 level, which has been tested multiple times as a technical support since late February, will be crucial in determining the near-term trajectory. If this level fails, it could trigger larger-scale technical selling; conversely, stabilization and bounce would demonstrate market resilience.

Of course, we need to closely monitor the evolution of this conflict, as well as market movements next Monday after liquidity returns.

For the long term, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain unchanged. The 21 million supply cap ensures scarcity, and halving cycle dynamics remain valid. Current geopolitical risks are more short-term disruptions rather than inflection points for long-term trends.

Strategically, a dollar-cost averaging approach with strict position sizing is advisable. Risk-averse investors should stay on the sidelines, waiting for clarity to emerge before committing capital. Aggressive traders may consider probing with small positions near key support levels—but stop-losses are non-negotiable.

Moreover, in the face of geopolitical black swan events, allocating to safe-haven commodities such as gold and oil represents another viable hedging strategy for portfolio protection.

"Whether the crypto selloff continues may depend on further escalation of the situation." We will continue monitoring developments closely.

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