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Japan Strikes Back! What brands are related to “exposure devices” that draw semiconductor circuits? Combating ASML with new technologies and contrarian strategies for advanced fields such as AI

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ビットバレー投資家 wrote a column · Apr 19 02:56
Form a nano (1/1 billion) meter-level electronic circuit pattern on a semiconductor wafer”exposure device” is”The most precise machine in human historyIt is called”, and the manufacturing processHeartBut it's there. Originally, the Japanese team occupied the global market share,Lags behind in developing highly profitable equipment for cutting-edge semiconductorsIt took, and now it's the Netherlands $ASML Holding(ASML.US)$ofWin aloneIt's in a state. ASML'sAdvanced equipment using extreme ultraviolet light (EUV)Is 120 billion yen to 50 billion yenIt is assumed. Meanwhile, Japanese players will be the main marketNon-advanced devicesIt ranges from hundreds of millions of yen to several billion yen per unit. But come hereTry to bounce back with revolutionary new technology and contrarian strategiesThe signs have also come into view.
Currently, ASML, Japan's three companies, Canon, and Nikon, have almost a monopoly on the global market share of exposure equipment. According to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, the world market share of ASML, which is the largest in terms of exposure equipment sales in '2262%Canon, which is in 2nd place31%Nikon is in 3rd place7%It has become. (Nihon Keizai Shimbun 23/11/7)
What is revolutionary new technology originating in Japan?
What is attracting attention as revolutionary technology is Canon, $Dai Nippon Printing(7912.JP)$KIOXIA HOLDINGS (formerly TOSHIBA MEMORY HOLDINGS) has been jointly developing since about 10 years agoNew technology for advanced semiconductors such as AI, “nanoimprint lithography”that's it. Canon successfully launched a device using this technology in 23/10.A simple contact method for transferring a fine circuit by pressing a stamp onto the waferSo, compared to conventional technology that uses strong light and a large number of lenses and mirrors,Electricity consumption is 1/10It becomes.
$Canon(7751.JP)$
Based on camera technology, we handle industrial equipment, office equipment, semiconductor lithography equipment, medical diagnostic imaging devices, etc. The number of semiconductor lithography equipment sold was 140 units in '21, but it grew to 247 units in '24, about1.8 times increaseIt is expected that it will be. 25 years, in Utsunomiya, TochigiA new semiconductor lithography equipment plant is scheduled to be put into operation. Expected sales for the fiscal year ending 2014/12 compared to the previous fiscal year4% increaseExpected net profit of 4.35 trillion yen15.3% increase305 billion yen. The closing price of 4,351 yen on the 19th is above analysts' average target stock price of 4227.27 yen, but up to the highest target stock price of 5100 yen17.2%There is room for improvement.
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Canon's operating profit margin (green) in industrial-related fields, including lithography equipment, etc. is at a high level
Canon's operating profit margin (green) in industrial-related fields, including lithography equipment, etc. is at a high level
$Dai Nippon Printing(7912.JP)$
Printing was the parent business, and the field expanded to industrial materials, electronics, etc. We also handle photomasks for semiconductor manufacturing, lead frames for packaging, etc. Handles semiconductor-related and display-related productsElectronics segment sales account for approximately 15% of total sales(FY22). Expected sales for the fiscal year ending 2014/3 compared to the previous fiscal year2.7% increaseExpected net profit of 1.41 trillion yen2.7% increase88 billion yen. There is about room for increase from the closing price of 4414 on the 19th to analysts' average target stock price of 5116.67 yen15.9%
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
How do you try to bounce back with a contrarian strategy?
Nikoncontrarian strategyThey will compete with While ASML dominates the advanced products market,Develop the Chinese market by focusing on previous generation light source technology for non-advanced applications such as power semiconductorsit's a policy. In line with US regulations against China, the Japanese government added semiconductor manufacturing equipment to export restrictions to China in 23/7. It is said that regulations have made it difficult for Chinese companies to procure cutting-edge equipment, and they are forced to switch production lines to non-advanced ones. We sell exposure devices with reduced performance so that they are not subject to export control to such companies. In the cumulative total up to Q3 of the fiscal year ended March 24, the number of exposure equipment sold increased compared to the previous year.
$Nikon(7731.JP)$
Manufacturer of precision instruments and optical instruments. A new exposure device product, which is the top model, was introduced in January this year. The amount of wafers that can be exposed is 10 to 15% higher than conventional products. Expected sales (sales revenue) for the fiscal year ending 2014/3 compared to the previous fiscal year12.2% increaseExpected net profit of 705 billion yen39.9% reduction27 billion yen. There is approximately room for increase from the closing price of 1,521 yen on the 19th to analysts' average target stock price of 1701.11 yen11.8%
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Who conceals the “tiger cub” related to exposure devices?
The largest construction machinery company in Japan $Komatsu(6301.JP)$Is a subsidiary that handles semiconductor lithography light sources with high earning power while working on the sale of businesses within the group“Gigaphoton” (Oyama City, Tochigi Prefecture) continues to be carefully owned. According to Nikkei, Gigaphoton's operating profit margin exceeds that of the parent company Komatsu, and the estimated corporate value300 billion yenIt's called climbing up.Light sources for deep ultraviolet (DUV) exposure systemsIt will be sold to exposure equipment manufacturers such as ASML, Nikon, and Canon. Become a customer of these exposure equipment manufacturers $Intel(INTC.US)$or Samsung, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$Parts are sold and maintained for semiconductor manufacturers such as Toshiba for repairs, etc. Gigaphoton's competitor is US Saimer, which is under the umbrella of ASML, and its market share is split in half.
$Komatsu(6301.JP)$
Ranked 2nd in the world for construction machinery. The top US caterpillar competes. There are also mining and industrial machinery such as large dump trucks. Expected sales for the fiscal year ending March 24 compared to the previous fiscal year3.3% increaseExpected net profit of 3.66 trillion yen4.2% increase340 billion yen. There is about room for increase from the closing price of 4353 yen on the 19th to the analysts' average target stock price of 4850 yen11.4%. According to Bloomberg data, the EPS annual growth rate45.1%What is the annual growth rate of sales26.4%and expensive.
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Stock price changes since the beginning of '23
Annual sales and EPS growth rate of related stocks
Japan Strikes Back! What brands are related to “exposure devices” that draw semiconductor circuits? Combating ASML with new technologies and contrarian strategi...
*Growth rate figures are Bloomberg data
―MooMoo News Kathy
Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Nikkei Cross Tech, company website materials, Bloomberg, Semicon Portal, moomoo
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