January 15th Macro Mainline: Today’s main plot is in a vacuu...

January 15th Macro Mainline:

Today’s main plot is in a vacuum period; the market needs time to digest this week’s major macro events, including the Powell event, Iran geopolitical tensions, December inflation data, and November retail/PPI figures.

The news exclusive to the crypto market is the delay in structural legislation for cryptocurrencies. The core bill, known as the 'Clarity Bill,' has been postponed due to Coinbase CEO's refusal to support it. Although the comprehensive package of crypto structural legislation originally scheduled for January 21st and January 27th has not yet been delayed, it is expected that the overall legislative process will likely be pushed back if the core bill cannot make progress.

The marginal macro event is Japan's plan to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23 and hold a general election in early February. This is Sanae Takichi's attempt to secure a majority in the House of Representatives with the current approval ratings to push forward her policies of fiscal expansion, military buildup, and constitutional reform. The opposition party Komeito has already explicitly partnered with the Constitutional Democratic Party to block Sanae Takichi’s policy advancement in the upcoming election.

The only remaining macro event this week is the US Supreme Court's announcement day on Friday, with the market awaiting the final ruling on Trump's tariff case.

Last week’s announcement was delayed once, and this Wednesday’s second release was not published; now we wait for Friday. In fact, from now until June 2026, it is the US Supreme Court’s announcement period, with two opportunities each week to issue rulings.

As per procedure, the US Supreme Court does not announce specific timings for individual rulings, so we can only patiently wait during each announcement day. Currently, the announcements are scheduled for Wednesday and Friday at 23:00 for verdict releases.

At present, the market sentiment is gradually recovering after experiencing weakened dollar credibility, geopolitical risks, and data impacts earlier this week. The US stock market is performing well, led by gains in technology stocks.

Next, Red Viewpoint will watch whether the Trump tariff ruling will be announced tomorrow night.