It has been a long time since I last published a long-form post. Recently, once again, a wave of people panicked, so I have to step in and give everyone some psychological reassurance.
One point must be made very clear: as an investor, you should never operate with a speculative mindset in the first place. You should be focused on long-term ownership of a small number of the best, top-tier industry leaders. Yet recently, many people have been buying precious metals and using leverage and options to aggressively bet on the memory sector. This alone shows that there will always be a group of people who never learn from speculation.
When facing so-called “black swan” events, the essence of panic comes from uncertainty. But at this point, it is very clear that the few narratives being hyped by the market are all deliberately spread misinformation.
First, the so-called issues surrounding OpenAI are nothing more than recycled rumors—so old that they can hardly be any older. Whenever you see information without a credible source, you can be almost 100% certain that it is fake news.
Second is the hype around a potential military conflict in the Middle East. In reality, during the previous conflict between Iran and Israel, Iran barely held out for less than a single morning before it ended. A paper tiger, no matter how large it is portrayed, is still just a paper tiger with no real combat capability.
Next comes the claim that the Federal Reserve may pivot back toward rate hikes. This is clearly impossible. First, we cannot simply take someone’s past remarks and treat them as a summary of all their future decisions, labeling them a “hawk.” If that logic were valid, then based on Powell’s remarks at the end of last year, wouldn’t he also be considered a hawk?
Second, the Federal Reserve is not a one-person decision-making body. Whether rates rise or fall depends on macroeconomic data, not on personal preferences.
Finally, when the market forces liquidations in gold and silver to extract liquidity, it uses that opportunity to shake out positions and amplify fear, pushing large numbers of retail investors out of the market. Taking NVIDIA as an example, the latest regulatory filings show that major institutions such as Vanguard are once again increasing their positions.
Many times, there is no need to obsess over short-term price movements. What truly matters is whether the fundamentals are improving and whether institutions are exiting. And the current situation is exactly the opposite: while fear is being deliberately amplified, institutions are continuously adding to their holdings.
This is not my subjective judgment—it is supported by concrete data from official filings. Therefore, a mature investor should abandon high-leverage strategies at times like this and instead choose long-term ownership. At the beginning of last year, NVIDIA was also widely questioned, yet it ultimately delivered astonishing gains.
Victory belongs to those who persist, not to those who speculate
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