Isn't the fall in US stocks over yet?! Check out a list of the latest views from Wall Street experts!
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
The fundamentals of AI-related stocks will drive further big tech performance
● While investors are closely watching the financial results announcements of approximately 180 S&P 500 companies, including major high-tech companies, they are also paying attention to geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
● As demand for AI expands and contributes greatly to the profits of high-tech companies, there is a possibility that global data center capital investment in 2024 will be underestimated at 300 billion US dollars.
● Despite recent sales, valuations in the tech sector are seen as attractive. Since the current predicted PER for Big Tech is still low, there is a possibility that it will exceed expectations.
Is the fall in semiconductor stocks not over yet?
● Semiconductor stocks have skyrocketed since the beginning of this year. Even after the recent decline, the year-to-date increase rate has exceeded 20%. Valuations are also extremely expensive, and PER (TTM, trailing twelve months) for March has reached 56 times. In addition to these factors, higher-than-expected inflation and interest rate hikes observed due to geopolitical concerns make it easier for these companies to fall back.
● On the other hand, inflation is mainly driven by a few subsequent factors such as rents and car insurance from now on, so expectations for interest rate cuts will increase when such upward pressure on prices begins to calm down. Furthermore, if performance guidance is considered reliable, although stock prices of some companies such as NVIDIA are high, they are not that high in terms of valuation.
● On the other hand, the long-term outlook for these stocks is more severe. Competition is intensifying in the AI field. NVIDIA is still dominant in this market, but there are also companies like Meta that have raised billions of dollars and are planning to develop their own models and chips. This intensification of competition is expected to eventually have an impact on profit margins and profit aspects. The US equity strategy team at BAC Research currently has a neutral view of semiconductor stocks in the US portfolio.
The fall in US stocks is not over yet
● Morgan Stanley's chief market strategist Marco Kolanovic has warned that adjustments in the US stock market have not been completed, and that there is a possibility that selling pressure will intensify due to macroeconomic risks such as rising bond yields, a strong dollar, and rising crude oil prices.
● Mr. Kolanovic said that despite temporary stability due to financial results announcements, the market is facing downside risks due to high valuations, inflation, receding expectations of interest rate cuts, excessive profit predictions, etc., which suggests the possibility of a market decline.
● Kolanovic takes a defensive investment stance and recommends hedging risk assets and investing in specific commodities. Kolanovic and his team maintain a bearish outlook on US stocks, suggesting that the target share price for the S&P 500 at the end of 2024 will fall drastically from current levels.
Why Gold's 3% Drop Will Boost Its New All-Time High
● Gold futures continued to fall for 2 days, falling around 3%. One reason for this decline is that the risk of war between Israel and Iran has declined, and the investment attractiveness of gold has declined.
● Analyst Fawad Razakzada pointed out that the current decline may lead to a “resolution” of overbought purchases, and stated that despite concerns about bond market sales and rising government bond yields, the long-term bullish view on gold has not changed.
● Central banks, particularly those of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are major buyers of gold, and this trend is expected to continue. If the overbought situation is completely resolved, there is a possibility that the current price drop will be a great buying opportunity for investors.
Source: Bloomberg, UBS, BCA Research, JP Morgan, DOW JONES
— MooMoo News Zeber
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
— MooMoo News Zeber
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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丸紅 日本BEST : bubble
HONDA N-ONE : I'm not doing short-term trading, so it doesn't matter if it's over or not
I don't know anyway
しげるちろ : Too much speculation!
Even though long-term buy-and-hold makes the most money!
beikoku : There is no merit in buying US stocks due to the historic depreciation of the yen
181646320 丸紅 日本BEST: What is a bubble and what kind of situation is it?
181137087 : Geopolitics is just noise. If you take a look at interest rates and financial results, everything will be solved. Followthrough Day is about to come out due to NVIDIA's financial results for May, isn't it?
181646320 しげるちろ: How do you determine speculation?
So isn't it dangerous to buy stocks
Are all stocks subject to speculation?
How do you determine if it's speculation?
Aren't you investing?
Can you tell me about it?