Iran-Israel War Situation Observation
1. The war situation in the Middle East has always been carried out in a “proxy war situation”. Pro-Iranian forces, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian government, Hamas, and Iraqi militias, have clashed with Israel's border
2. Iran has the largest armed army in the Middle East and is also seen as the supporter behind these “agents”
3. On April 1, 2024, Israel dropped several bombs on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing some senior commanders and generals suspected of being in touch with “agents”
4. Iran says it will retaliate after the attack
5. According to reports, Iran's foreign minister notified the US a week ago that it would “proportionate and restraint” launch a “non-escalating” counterattack against Israel, and notified allies and Western countries
6. On Friday, the US said Israel would be attacked by Iran's drones within 24-48 hours. Iran issued an order asking the UN to condemn Israel to launch an attack otherwise
7. Iran attacked Israel as expected. Iran claimed that it had achieved the expected results and indicated that the punishment against Israel was over; at the same time, Israel also claimed that it had almost completely intercepted drones from Iran
8. Israel and neighboring countries, such as Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon, announced the reopening of airspace
9. US says it condemns Iran but does not seek to get involved in war with Iran
Observation:
Judging from Iran's overall military operation, the warning given in advance, plus the launch of drones and missiles, it quickly stated that “the punishment against Israel is over,” and it seems that they don't want to cut corners.
Iran's consulate was bombed. As the largest military force in the Middle East, a counterattack on the table seemed inevitable.
Iran's counterattack did not cause any substantial damage to Israel. The damage was not high, but it was quite representative.
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SpyderCall : good read.
So, do you think Isreal will retaliate?
I assumed that they would retaliate and the markets would make big swings. But I didn't know that Iran let foreign powers know that they were going to attack. I also didn't know that Iran only wanted a proportional retaliation without escalating the situation into all-out war with Isreal. This makes it seem like much less detrimental for financial markets.
I am very curious to see how futures markets will open today. Do you think some assets will have big moves? Like oil, gold, etc? Or do you think this unsuccessful barrage of missiles is a no-news event?
102502703 : there's opinion the measured attack by Iran exposed the weaknesses in Israel's defence, a learning experience event.
Iran is said to have used low cost tech to discover holes in Israel's iron dome. A brilliant strategy for an upcoming asymmetrical war.
twitter.com/Rea...
kelvinkew : An exploratory attitude. It's not like this when you actually fight. If you see something good, you probably won't be able to win it. You have to look at the face of old America no matter what. As soon as the US came, an anti-war coalition appeared all over the country, haha
_KY_ : Shouldn't have played ~
Israel also has to act like it, otherwise it will be difficult to explain to the people
AFCJAP : Israel has retaliated, now how would Iran respond? more aggressive move? will US or Russia step in? how is the prospect of commodities such as gold, metals, petroleum or even agricultural commodities be affected? but for sure, stock market will tank and tonight will be red in NYSE.