Investing Essentials | BHP at record highs: It's a copper story now

BHP shares hit new records in both Sydney and New York. The ASX line $BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AU)$ topped A$60 for the first time. The NYSE ADR $BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US)$ is up over 50% year-to-date and 84% in the past year.

Market consensus attributes the rally to a single shift: the engine is no longer iron ore — it is copper. And the change signals something bigger than one company. $Copper Futures (SEP6) (HGmain.US)$

Copper just passed iron ore

For the first time, copper delivered more than half of BHP's underlying EBITDA. The H1 FY26 result puts copper at 51%, with iron ore stepping aside.

Five years ago, iron ore was the undisputed center of gravity. Today, BHP describes itself as the world's largest copper producer, a top-20 gold producer, and a 5% share of global uranium output.

CEO Mike Henry calls these "valuable positions."

How BHP got here in 4 years

The pivot rests on three moves:

• The 2023 Oz Minerals acquisition, which expanded BHP's South Australian copper footprint.

• Operational gains at Escondida in Chile, where mill throughput hit a record.

• Development upside at Vicuna in Argentina, queued as a future growth engine.

The result: copper output is up roughly 30% over four years. FY26 guidance now sits at 1.9–2.0 million tonnes. This stands out from peers, many of whom have been hit by cost overruns and weather disruptions.

Why the market is paying up

Pure-play copper miners now trade at EV/EBITDA multiples of around 9.5x, up from roughly 6.5x three years ago.

As copper's share of BHP earnings expands, the market may consider re-rating the group on a similar trajectory.

Earnings back the move. H1 FY26 profit rose 22%, with a 60% payout ratio and a US$0.60 interim dividend per share.

Risks remain. Valuation looks stretched, and softer Chinese demand may continue to weigh on iron ore margins.

The next decade for mining

Copper sits at the center of three structural demand drivers:

• AI data centers, hungry for power and cabling.

• Electric vehicles and batteries.

• Global grid upgrades and renewable integration.

Supply is the bottleneck. Global copper mine output is expected to grow only around 1% in 2026, well below typical demand growth.

BHP's relevance now extends beyond its share price. The company is reshaping what a top-tier miner looks like — diversified across copper, iron ore, potash, and metallurgical coal, but anchored by future-facing metals. According to BHP's H1 FY26 disclosure, the Jansen potash project (Phase 1 around 73% complete) is targeted for production in 2027. TIKR analysts view its successful delivery as a key pillar for the group's long-term volume growth.

As the world electrifies, the core competence of mining is being redefined. For investors, understanding the structural shift may matter more than chasing short-term price swings.

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