In One Chart: 3 Signals That Will Define Nvidia's Quarter

At this years GTC DC event, Nvidia showed a roadmap that points to 500 billion dollars of data center revenue. Since fiscal 2026 first quarter, the Data Center business has already delivered 80.2 billion dollars in the first two quarters, including Hopper products.

Street estimates for the next two quarters are 49.1 billion dollars and 56.1 billion dollars. In that math, fiscal 2027 could still see about 314.6 billion dollars of data center revenue, roughly 70% growth. Investors will listen to how management updates this roadmap and how confident they sound about demand.

Non GAAP gross margin has slipped from a peak of 78.9% in the first quarter of 2024 to 71.3% in the first quarter of 2025, then recovered to 72.7% in the second quarter. Guidance for the third quarter is 73.5%. The key question is whether the fourth quarter can move back toward 75% as Blackwell ramps stabilize.

On the last call, Nvidia said the move to GB300 was smooth, with factories already producing around one thousand racks a week and more capacity coming online in the third quarter. The speed of this Blackwell Ultra ramp will drive how far earnings can surprise on the upside.

Heading into Nvidia's pivotal FY26 Q3 earnings, the options market reveals a high-stakes battleground defined by a staggering 20.24 million contracts of open interest and a constructive 0.89 Put/Call ratio that underscores a persistent bullish bias.

However, this optimism comes at a steep price: with Implied Volatility surging to 58.89%—significantly decoupling from historical norms and sitting in the 79th percentile—the market is actively pricing in a violent price swing, suggesting traders are fully braced for explosive volatility immediately following the report.

In short, Nvidia's earnings release is still the key event of this earnings season. The numbers and guidance will help decide whether the AI story in equities can keep running and may even steer the broader market. The focus will be on the Blackwell Ultra ramp, the timing of any return to about 75% gross margin and, most importantly, how Nvidia executes on its 500 billion dollar data center revenue plan.

Check out moomoo's past insights on Nvidia: