I wrote about the quantum threat in my newsletter today. I s...
I wrote about the quantum threat in my newsletter today. I said this there, and I’ll reiterate it here: I am not a quantum computing expert. I didn’t become one over the weekend, and this isn’t me pretending to be one now.
But quantum risk is starting to show up more in serious institutional crypto conversations, so I’ve been spending more time trying to understand it. And the biggest thing I’ve learned so far is this:
The “quantum threat” to Bitcoin is almost always misunderstood.
Bitcoin security today is built on math, not secrecy. The network is a public ledger secured by cryptography, hashing, and digital signatures. With classical computers, breaking Bitcoin’s private key security would take longer than the age of the universe. That’s why Bitcoin security is rooted in mathematics, not trust.
Quantum computing matters because it doesn’t just make computers faster - it changes how certain math problems can be approached. In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break some cryptographic systems that are currently considered unbreakable.
But here’s the part most people miss:
If quantum ever becomes capable of breaking modern cryptography, Bitcoin will not be the only thing at risk. Banking systems, government communications, military infrastructure, and secure internet protocols - all of it would be exposed. That would be a global security event, not a “crypto problem.”
Even within Bitcoin, the risk isn’t “Bitcoin dies overnight.” The more realistic early risk would be targeted wallet vulnerabilities, especially older address formats with public keys already exposed on-chain. And even that assumes quantum hardware that is orders of magnitude more powerful than anything that exists today.
Serious research doesn’t frame quantum as an imminent collapse scenario. It’s usually framed as a long-term engineering transition - similar to how the internet gradually upgraded encryption standards over time.
Work on post-quantum cryptography is already accelerating across both traditional tech and crypto. That alone tells you this isn’t being ignored.
Personally, I’m not overly focused on quantum risk right now. Maybe that’s wrong. But there are people far smarter than I working on this, and I’m confident changes will be made long before this becomes an emergency. The quantum threat is real.
I just don’t think it’s anywhere close to being the thing that breaks Bitcoin.
But quantum risk is starting to show up more in serious institutional crypto conversations, so I’ve been spending more time trying to understand it. And the biggest thing I’ve learned so far is this:
The “quantum threat” to Bitcoin is almost always misunderstood.
Bitcoin security today is built on math, not secrecy. The network is a public ledger secured by cryptography, hashing, and digital signatures. With classical computers, breaking Bitcoin’s private key security would take longer than the age of the universe. That’s why Bitcoin security is rooted in mathematics, not trust.
Quantum computing matters because it doesn’t just make computers faster - it changes how certain math problems can be approached. In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break some cryptographic systems that are currently considered unbreakable.
But here’s the part most people miss:
If quantum ever becomes capable of breaking modern cryptography, Bitcoin will not be the only thing at risk. Banking systems, government communications, military infrastructure, and secure internet protocols - all of it would be exposed. That would be a global security event, not a “crypto problem.”
Even within Bitcoin, the risk isn’t “Bitcoin dies overnight.” The more realistic early risk would be targeted wallet vulnerabilities, especially older address formats with public keys already exposed on-chain. And even that assumes quantum hardware that is orders of magnitude more powerful than anything that exists today.
Serious research doesn’t frame quantum as an imminent collapse scenario. It’s usually framed as a long-term engineering transition - similar to how the internet gradually upgraded encryption standards over time.
Work on post-quantum cryptography is already accelerating across both traditional tech and crypto. That alone tells you this isn’t being ignored.
Personally, I’m not overly focused on quantum risk right now. Maybe that’s wrong. But there are people far smarter than I working on this, and I’m confident changes will be made long before this becomes an emergency. The quantum threat is real.
I just don’t think it’s anywhere close to being the thing that breaks Bitcoin.
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Host of “The Wolf Of All Streets” podcast & BTC market insight
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XTRProf : Good analysis there! I'm no quantum computing scientist or expert but if enough quantum computing, if ever quantum computing gets hatched in a stable form and will not happen at least in the next 5 to 10 years, this can still happen. Think about it as in military a gigantic swarm of drones will definitely defeat any military power no matter how powerful if the jamming can be made useless. Don't ever think Navy Seals Team 6, one of the best trained army unit in the world, can never be defeated if an enmass lesser trained army goes after them. Think about that in that perspective.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")