I'm writing a book this year, so if you have any requests, like a table of contents or specific content you'd like to see, please leave a comment.
I've started writing a book, but my ideas are all over the place and it's turning into a big project, which has been giving me some trouble lately. I jotted down a few ideas in bullet points, and they turned into the following chunks. If there’s anything else you’d like to read about, let me know.
✅ Acquiring the perspective needed to succeed in the market
① US stocks have clear cycles, and I have a strength in capturing those cycles. I want to share how to identify them and techniques for navigating tricky situations.
A framework that divides stock price increase factors into three categories
1. Overall Market Conditions
2. Fundamental requirements (major changes)
3. Timing of the rise (supply-demand dynamics)
2. Fundamental requirements (major changes)
3. Timing of the rise (supply-demand dynamics)
In terms of 1., it refers to the overall market.
② I want to introduce what constitutes significant change using many examples. I also want to show cases that seem like big changes but don't actually impact stock prices much.
③ I want to share the essential basics of chart analysis—knowing just these will be enough to score 80 points, which is sufficient.
④ By having these perspectives (frameworks) and applying this knowledge, I want you to simulate, make repeated judgments, and get a sense of accumulating profits post-COVID.
This could be enough for a whole book by this point.
✅Training Edition (a few thin books, subset image)
⑤ Introduction to Chart Analysis
3. A research book that thoroughly explores the timing of upward movements (supply-demand dynamics).
O'Neil presents 100 charts all at once, which makes learning difficult. The overall picture from the start of an uptrend until its end looks different visually at entry points on the chart. I'd like to cover aspects such as what basis is used for entry, low-risk entry methods, evidence of violations, and similar details.
⑥ Introduction to Changing Beliefs
This is something I have emphasized repeatedly, but those who bring beliefs that worked in the real world into the market cannot win. Recently, I re-read O’Neil, and casually in the preface (P11), it mentions:
・Stocks should be bought while the price is rising, not while it’s falling.
If you're going to buy stocks, you should buy near the year's high...
You should always aim to quickly cut losses when they're still small...
You shouldn't focus too much on a company's book value or P/E ratio...
All of these extremely important actions go entirely against natural human behavior.
It says this and negates beliefs within one page, but it doesn't immediately touch on 'why?', so I think many people just skim over it.
Unless we actually go through each specific case of failure, show empathy, and then explain that in order to succeed in the market, it's necessary to change this behavior pattern—unless we do that, people’s beliefs won’t change.
I don't think people will change their beliefs unless they realize that their current ones lead to failure. That's why I think a book focusing on this aspect is needed.
In the end, there are people who get excited when a stagnant stock jumps a little. I think without checking the boundary conditions between stocks that recover and those that don't, along with their statistics, it's hard to fully grasp.
⑦ A Guide to Exploring Factors Behind Stock Price Increases
O’Neil advocates uncovering big-win stocks and holding them for several months to 3 years, but since I'm more short-term oriented than him, I have various 'If-Then' edges.
When starting with a small capital, even if it triples in two years, the sense of achievement can feel somewhat underwhelming (though in reality, growing at that rate would make you unbelievably wealthy... In position trading, doubling your money in two years is already considered genius-level).
That said, there are strategies that exist, and by confirming with a time lag, you can earn with high accuracy, so these opportunities should be taken.
Lately, I think I've been looking at things like Bitcoin prices or lithium prices, and then capturing rises of about 20% to 50% in stocks like GoldMiner with a time lag. SilverMiner was mostly untouched, but there were similar opportunities in oil. In times of rising geopolitical risks like now, resource prices tend to show trends, making this strategy useful, and in bear markets like in 2022, it's usable year-round.
⑧ A Guide to Building Routines
Reading O'Neil gives an understanding of the characteristics of big-win stocks. But when it comes to 'How do I list candidates daily or weekly and enter trades?' many people don’t take the step of building that routine. Reading one book might make you feel smarter, but if that’s all you do, it has no real value.
Moreover, no matter how hard you work on screening, if it’s just before a bear market, it’s almost meaningless. It might be better to do nothing. This is where the element of timing—and luck—comes into play.
Moreover, no matter how hard you work on screening, if it’s just before a bear market, it’s almost meaningless. It might be better to do nothing. This is where the element of timing—and luck—comes into play.
Having understood the cycles from the overall market perspective (①), we’re already in the fourth year of a bull market—aren’t there any opportunities? Can't we make money based on our convenience? Well, while we can’t exactly make money according to our own schedule, smaller cycles still exist in the market. So, unlike in 2023, when we went all-in on AI and cryptocurrencies—taking on significant risks—we’ll aim to capture existing opportunities without taking such large risks. There’s always a routine to follow depending on the situation.
That’s the part I want to write about. I’ve mentioned this a few times, but just like TradeFactory, I want to help build an investment system where daily processes are run like a factory: sourcing investment ideas, evaluating/inspecting them, moving them into monitoring, and executing when conditions are met.
In summary, I believe ①～⑧ pretty much cover the key strategies comprehensively, but if there are any challenges I haven’t noticed, I’d appreciate your feedback.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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☆KGA☆ :
I want it![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
CPIF(シーピー) : Beginner's Environment Setup Examples
・Capital allocation ratio during the core/satellite (training) phase: Defense with index funds (core), followed by a gradual transfer of capital example
・Is having a PC more convenient in the smartphone-completed era? Considerations regarding TradingView, subscription fees, and benefits of larger displays
・Which chart screens, oscillators, or indicators should be kept ON (displayed at all times)? For instance, various MAs, MACD, BB, etc.
・The 'toxicity' of social media and maintaining distance from investment YouTubers: Detoxification and how to engage
Advice for Beginners
・Why 90%, not 50%, lose when trading based on emotions
・In trading, are there any significant disadvantages for Japanese people or residents of Japan?
・Which timeframes should be given special attention: Daily, monthly, minute charts, etc., and what insights each provides
・Short selling (short, inverse, bear ETFs), leverage, and margin accounts: Meaningful or meaningless?
· Entry and Exit in Segments: Is Risk Diversification Effective? / On Full Investment
I would be delighted if such topics were available. (I sincerely apologize if this is off-topic.)
I feel like I've witnessed an incredible moment. I hope the book writing proceeds smoothly.
倍プッシュ : Thank you for your hard work. I always appreciate it. I am looking forward to the publication. Recently, I purchased Minervini and am gradually learning from it.
I’m not sure if it will be a challenge, but if you could write about the details of the evaluations, inspections, monitoring, and enforcement that Mr. Butsukumaku has actually experienced, including success stories, failures, charts, diagrams, and amounts, it would be very helpful for me personally.
183171865 : I always enjoy learning from you. Thank you very much.
I’ve just started trading with a small amount of capital, but I’m dreaming of becoming a small-time millionaire. I was also wondering if you could write about it in section ⑦, but I would be grateful if you could share more details about Pradeep's momentum burst strategy and the methods used by Mr. Bear during his small-capital days (was it from 3 million yen to 200 million yen?).
K2株 : The explanation regarding the basis of the violation is very much appreciated.
After entering a position, there are many cases where it feels like getting shaken out, especially during ambiguous market conditions.
It makes me nervous, thinking ‘Maybe my judgment was wrong after all,’ particularly during periods when it’s neither a rising market nor a falling one, and I frequently encounter this kind of situation.
テンプルトン25 : Yes, I will definitely buy it. I'm looking forward to it.
Now, there are some points that have already been mentioned, but:
- Understanding the overall market. Starting from the very basics. I assume that even for the same indicators, the state may vary, and depending on how they're combined at different times, there are probably various ways to interpret them. If there's any guidance on that, I'd be grateful.
- This is exactly point ⑧. Regarding the routine here, diligent people, those with good instincts, and those who charge ahead recklessly should be able to continue building and growing even without much help. However, for ordinary people (who might not be cut out to be traders), having a textbook-style approach with practical examples broken down into actual operational steps—perhaps explained in excessive detail—would allow them to follow along initially and help broaden the base of participants.
An amateur has written down whatever came to mind. While striving not to drop out of the market, I’m eagerly awaiting the publication of your book.
仏熊苦 OP CPIF(シーピー) : Thank you very much.
The way to use indicators is certainly something many people are interested in. Personally, I hardly use any indicator-based tools and only look at price, moving averages, and volume.
With that approach, I can identify intraday reversal points (though it’s just my self-assessment), but I’m thinking of writing about how to capture such price movements in a basic charting guide.
On top of that, there seem to be people who skillfully utilize MACD/VWAP, so those who want to use them should go ahead and do so.
However, there are more fundamental basics that need to be mastered first — these are the key 80% that I think everyone should focus on.
As for why individuals lose 90% of the time, I’ll try editing what I wrote about Figma to make it clearer. There are probably already diagrams online illustrating the psychology of people who incur losses, but…
Entry techniques
If you read O’Neil, he doesn’t specifically write about this, but in his case, whether or not a stock has high growth potential is crucial. As long as you buy around the right point, it won’t matter too much where exactly you buy if it’s a big winner.
However, the shorter the time frame, the more important technique becomes. For example, last year, with IREN, I managed to achieve a 3.6% return, but even a 1% error in entry timing can lead to a significant difference in annual performance, making short-term trading quite unforgiving.
Since I’m not a day trader, I’ll avoid pretending to know everything about that field, but I’d like to share insights into what’s important for swing trading time frames.
The longer the time frame you take, the less critical these kinds of techniques become. Investing has that kind of nature.
仏熊苦 OP 倍プッシュ : If we were to include content, it would be ⑧Trade Factory.
(Figure 1) / (Figure 2) This is how I’ve organized what Pradeep explained about the concept. However, I think this alone won’t lead to practical application, so I’ll try writing it out in detail with concrete examples as well.
(Figure 3) The final form for evaluating charts ends up like this, so we need to figure out how to present it.
Even when you look at the completed form, it should feel overwhelming and hard to read because you don't know which order to look at or the types of elements to consider and their priorities.
I found the first 100 charts in O’Neil’s book pretty tough to interpret, so I’ll try to come up with some sort of workaround.
仏熊苦 OP 183171865 : To reference posts on moomoo, I’ve recently been writing about the logic for stocks like Sidus (space-related), resource-related CRML, CRCL, TEM, Databolt, Beyond Meat, Antimony, TLRY, JMIA, and ZEPP, so feel free to check those out if you’re interested.
I thought I wasn't doing this much anymore, but it turns out I was still quite active.
There isn’t much depth in these cases—just look for unusual volume with over 9 million shares traded, verify the details, and if it seems likely to continue, buy the pullback or tightening.
仏熊苦 OP K2株 : Shakeouts happen quite often, right?
The market is fundamentally really nasty.
Even if there’s a big surge, it won’t rise until it shakes off the weak holders.
Lately, I’ve been observing price movements that seem to relentlessly torment holders before finally saying, "Alright, no more sellers left—time to take off."
I was looking at IREN recently.
There are plenty of undercuts happening in the middle of a trading range, so I've been thinking lately that it might be better to confirm those before entering.
After a drop where you think, "This is brutal, holders must be crying," it tends to rise afterward.
I'll try to write about this mechanism too, though I haven't researched it much.
Will stocks with nasty undercuts during consolidation rise more?
Or will high-quality stocks with smooth price action and no undercuts during consolidation rise more?
I don't yet know which scenario offers higher expected returns.
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