I know a lot of losses and benefits, but have you been able to put it into practice?
Today's word for granted in investing“Dai Somko Ri”Let's think about it.
Literally, losses are small and profits are huge... but even if you know it, it's quite difficult. The credit evaluation loss ratio of individual investors is always negative, deteriorating to -6% even in strong conditions, -10% in normal times, and -18% in falling markets.
Around -6% even on strong ground. With this, the ground is overheated, so you can see how losses and profits are reduced in short-term trades.
Profit early, loss in saltSince there are a lot of people who say..., that's why the numbers are like this. You can't win forever with this.
Profit early, loss in saltSince there are a lot of people who say..., that's why the numbers are like this. You can't win forever with this.
So what should I do“Dai Somko Ri”Can it be realized?
Indicators and ways of thinking that are easy to understand are important. That's where it comes out“Profit Factor”, commonly known asPFIt is.
This“MAX Profit/MAX Loss”It is expressed by a simple formula.
This“MAX Profit/MAX Loss”It is expressed by a simple formula.
For example, if MAX profit is set to +3% from the construction price and LC (loss cut) is set to -1.5%,
3%/1.5% = 2.0
PF=2.0
So that's it.
3%/1.5% = 2.0
PF=2.0
So that's it.
This PF is obvious,Win rate and setsI have to think about it.
Even if PF = 3.0 is extremely high, the win rate doesn't reach 30%... not only will it not be positive in total, but in the worst case, a losing streak will continue with 5 consecutive losses, 7 consecutive losses, etc.drawdown(continuous loss amount) will increase.
To get a plus of 100,000 yen, it's like losing 5 times in a row and winning 1 million yen after losing 900,000 yen, and it would be nice if you had the mindset and funds to withstand that, but it would be tough if 900,000 were negative for a typical individual investor.
To get a plus of 100,000 yen, it's like losing 5 times in a row and winning 1 million yen after losing 900,000 yen, and it would be nice if you had the mindset and funds to withstand that, but it would be tough if 900,000 were negative for a typical individual investor.
Not anymore.. You may be forced to retreat along the way.
So it's like thisA major tactic for drawdowns is empty arguments on the deskAnd if you actually hold a position, you'll die.
From my many years of investment success/failure, on the timeline (daily swing level) of short-term trading,
PF = 1.6 to 2.2
Win rate = 55% to 60%
I think the balance is in place.
PF = 1.6 to 2.2
Win rate = 55% to 60%
I think the balance is in place.
Even if the winning percentage is 50%, it's a plus for the year if the PF is 2.0It becomes. Or rather, it's quite a plus.
I'm planning my tactics using this as a guide.
There are many people who eagerly watch videos and radio to guess whether it will go up or down tomorrow by examining charts, but that is very nonsense. You should select information on whether you can achieve a PF of 1.6 or higher and a 55% win rate in tactics you are good at.
There are many people who eagerly watch videos and radio to guess whether it will go up or down tomorrow by examining charts, but that is very nonsense. You should select information on whether you can achieve a PF of 1.6 or higher and a 55% win rate in tactics you are good at.
For example, I will attach 2023 practice data for a tactic I have adopted as a short-term contrarian tactic.
29 rounds 14 wins 15 losses。
Shamefully, my winning percentage was less than 50%..
but+7270 yen for 1 futures, +23.86%It has become. Even if you do it steadily with 1 mini futures, it's +700,000.
Of course, it's a back test, so it's actually a bit less favorable IN/OUT, so there's a need to discount it, but that's still not a good enough record.
What is important is that the profit is +23.8% despite the fact that the win rate was 48.2% and this was a sluggish year once every few years as a tactic.
This is the balance of loss and profit margin, and it has been achieved with a balance where LC is accelerated and profits are not greedy (losses are reduced by securing profit at +3%).
Shamefully, my winning percentage was less than 50%..
but+7270 yen for 1 futures, +23.86%It has become. Even if you do it steadily with 1 mini futures, it's +700,000.
Of course, it's a back test, so it's actually a bit less favorable IN/OUT, so there's a need to discount it, but that's still not a good enough record.
What is important is that the profit is +23.8% despite the fact that the win rate was 48.2% and this was a sluggish year once every few years as a tactic.
This is the balance of loss and profit margin, and it has been achieved with a balance where LC is accelerated and profits are not greedy (losses are reduced by securing profit at +3%).
Invest in stocks at a loss or profit!
There are many investment schools and investment advisors who say something like that but don't tell me specific numbers. In fact, their tactics and advice are airplay (advising with charts and original theories without investing with one's own funds), and there aren't many places that disclose win rates or PF.
No matter how much you lose, it's airplay, so your money will be restored the next month. But if you really invest, you can't do that, right?
Therefore, if you try to summarize the win rate and PF again by yourself, you can see that it is a ton demo advice.
There are many investment schools and investment advisors who say something like that but don't tell me specific numbers. In fact, their tactics and advice are airplay (advising with charts and original theories without investing with one's own funds), and there aren't many places that disclose win rates or PF.
No matter how much you lose, it's airplay, so your money will be restored the next month. But if you really invest, you can't do that, right?
Therefore, if you try to summarize the win rate and PF again by yourself, you can see that it is a ton demo advice.
Even with the 2023 data in the screenshot above,There are 3 consecutive losses, but there is a zone of 10 rounds 3 wins and 7 lossesIt's a mess depending on when it started.
It's 4/6 to 7/13, isn't it?
However, during this period, it's +500 yen.Even a 30% win rate is a plusIt is.
Losses were cut quickly with settlement signs, and profits were taken twice, and this alone is positive.
It's 4/6 to 7/13, isn't it?
However, during this period, it's +500 yen.Even a 30% win rate is a plusIt is.
Losses were cut quickly with settlement signs, and profits were taken twice, and this alone is positive.
Incidentally, this tactic2024 is 6 rounds 5 wins 1 loss as of 4.23, explosive profitbut... so far too much has been done lol
We are doing backtests after COVID-19,An annual rate of +20% or more for either the falling market in '22 or the rising market in '23 or 24I'm putting it out.
We are doing backtests after COVID-19,An annual rate of +20% or more for either the falling market in '22 or the rising market in '23 or 24I'm putting it out.
So, firstIt is important to grasp the win rate and how much PF is in your own investment tacticsIt is.
There are many cases where the atmosphere, sense of affordability, and investment/trade style at the request of the sender are unable to grasp this. That was the case for me when I was in my 30s.
So, I scoured various books and YouTube. I was in my 30s at the time, and YouTube wasn't there yet, so I relied on books and blogs.
But it wasn't easy to win. Even if you can avoid a big loss, you can't win...
If you think about it, it's natural, and there's no way you can win if you don't know the investment efficiency of what you're doing and can't cut losses quickly...
Be sure to check this out first.
If I had a time machine, I would love to shudder myself in my 30s... lol
There are many cases where the atmosphere, sense of affordability, and investment/trade style at the request of the sender are unable to grasp this. That was the case for me when I was in my 30s.
So, I scoured various books and YouTube. I was in my 30s at the time, and YouTube wasn't there yet, so I relied on books and blogs.
But it wasn't easy to win. Even if you can avoid a big loss, you can't win...
If you think about it, it's natural, and there's no way you can win if you don't know the investment efficiency of what you're doing and can't cut losses quickly...
Be sure to check this out first.
If I had a time machine, I would love to shudder myself in my 30s... lol
Also, the tactic shown in the screenshot is how to create charts, trade rules, and backtests with a Cablab membership.
However, I'm not here for advertising purposes, so I'll just post a link. Please do your own research on how to join a member!
However, I'm not here for advertising purposes, so I'll just post a link. Please do your own research on how to join a member!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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涼しいランドル_6964 : Stocase
yamacyan : Please promote it
I've been referring to YouTube every day since I learned about CabLab and Opravo.
I think I have intermediate level experience
I've been skipping my studies until recently, so it's been helpful to be able to get helpful information.
I think this is a site I definitely want beginners to check out.
熊谷_オプラボOP yamacyan: Thank you for always watching!
Everything I talk about in the video is something I've learned from my mistakes, so if you use them as a reference, you should be able to avoid losing money due to the same mistakes! w
We look forward to your continued support!
exera : When it's going up, I feel good and optimistic; when it starts to fall, I hold that it should rebound next; when it comes to a downtrend, performance isn't bad, so if you hold it, it's ultimately a day of loss, big profit, small time loss, and loss. I wonder if hedge funds that don't have emotional harm and individual investors are different around here? The timing of profit determination and loss cutting is difficult, isn't it
熊谷_オプラボOP exera: Thanks for commenting.
In the case of individual stocks, it's an imperative rule to sell when the reason you bought them falls apart, isn't it?
If you buy it with a technical signature, then the payment is mechanically made when it becomes an LC signature.
If you buy it with Funda, you pay when the reason you bought it is broken.
I understand, but it's difficult.
However, we can't win while we say that, so we have no choice but to mechanically set rules and put them into practice.