have we seen the worse of the tariff?
When He Says “No Recession,” We Sell
Over the past three months, I’ve been watching Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s every move—and the conclusion is inescapable: you can’t trust his rosy takes on the U.S. economy. He has no authority over tariffs, yet he’s bent over backwards to deflect blame for any market weakness away from the Trump administration’s trade war.
Instead, he points to phantom threats like “DeepSeek” (whatever that is) whenever stocks wobble. Make no mistake: these are cover stories, not causes. When the Treasury Secretary confidently proclaims “no recession in sight,” that’s your cue to lighten up on risk assets.
History tells us that by the time politicians are all smiles, the market has already priced in their optimism—and it’s time to take profits. So the next time you hear Bessent assuring you that “the economy is on solid footing,” remember: when he says “no recession,” we SELL.
Over the past three months, I’ve been watching Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s every move—and the conclusion is inescapable: you can’t trust his rosy takes on the U.S. economy. He has no authority over tariffs, yet he’s bent over backwards to deflect blame for any market weakness away from the Trump administration’s trade war.
Instead, he points to phantom threats like “DeepSeek” (whatever that is) whenever stocks wobble. Make no mistake: these are cover stories, not causes. When the Treasury Secretary confidently proclaims “no recession in sight,” that’s your cue to lighten up on risk assets.
History tells us that by the time politicians are all smiles, the market has already priced in their optimism—and it’s time to take profits. So the next time you hear Bessent assuring you that “the economy is on solid footing,” remember: when he says “no recession,” we SELL.
news below:
From the moment US President Donald Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on April 2 through the ensuing market mayhem the following day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s phone lit up with text messages from executives tied to his former industry.
Multiple hedge fund managers and finance executives reached out, seeking his help in swaying Mr Trump on the levies, according to people familiar with the matter.
After all, as the former chief investment officer of Soros Fund Management, Mr Bessent was a potential ally. He was seen as someone who could explain to the president that extreme new levies would damage the economy and continue to wreak havoc on markets.
But, in fact, Mr Bessent was not the primary driver of the tariff announcement, according to a person familiar with the matter. He used his role in Oval Office meetings to lay out potential scenarios for markets and the economy based on different tariff levels, the person said.
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104542612 : the ones telling you to buy instead of keeping quiet and buying more themselves indicates they want to sell instead of buying more, while those telling to sell already shorted. meaning majority is extremely bearish.
DataCentre SugarBabe OP 104542612 : good analysis
Billy Griffin : also as he says its time for the 50% of working class Americans rather than the 10% of upper class to phosper
Fist of Fury : JP Morgan, the largest investment bank puts recession at 60%. Powell himself is uncertain. GDP for US is expected to be -2.8%. in GDP for Q2 which is supposed to be released in July is neg as well, US will be in recession. look at unemployment rate, look at GDP, look at consumer index. what does the story tells you. we will know the fear comes end April. he can say whatever he wants. the economy doesn't care about feelings and the numbers don't lie.
105657362 : we still need suckers to buy
DataCentre SugarBabe OP 105657362 : damn. who can be sucker
JeddyHo : powell also said no inflation in august
Fist of Fury JeddyHo : inflation is not something Powell can control. when the tariffs kicks in, there will be a rise in inflation.