GTC and OFC Conferences Approaching: The Next Catalyst for the Optical Communication Industry?

Contrary to the new round of decline in software stocks caused by Anthropic's Claude Code Security, stock prices of companies in the optical communication sector within the AI infrastructure segment remain strong. $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ , $Ciena (CIEN.US)$ , $Coherent (COHR.US)$ , and $Fabrinet (FN.US)$ have risen over 10% in the past week.

The reasons are: firstly, cloud service providers are accelerating CapEx; secondly, the penetration rate of high-speed optical modules above 800G is increasing, currently only in low double digits in AI data center scenarios. The gross margin of optical modules will increase from 800G to 1.6T and future 3.2T bandwidths.

2026 is viewed by the industry as the "mass production year" for 1.6T optical modules.

Multiple institutional forecasts point to a trend where 1.6T demand is rapidly jumping from "pilot scale" to millions in quantity. Industry data shows that global 1.6T demand will be about 500,000 to 1 million units in 2025, expected to leap to several million units by 2026. Correspondingly, the TAM (Total Addressable Market) of the optical module market has been significantly raised by many institutions. According to industry media like C-Light, the TAM adjustment for 2026 and 2027 is over 40%.

Catalysts for optical modules in the coming month:

Related Company Earnings

1. $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ is expected to release earnings on March 4. The revenue of Broadcom's chip business and switching chips will be used by the market to infer network spending in AI hyperscale data centers, thus affecting optical module demand expectations. The market expects its revenue to grow 30.93% year-over-year, with Non-GAAP EPS increasing by 35.66%.

2. $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ : Its quarterly earnings are scheduled for 2026-03-05. Marvell's data center revenue disclosure will influence judgments on optical module strength.

3. $Ciena (CIEN.US)$ : Will announce earnings before the market opens on 2026-03-05. As an optical network equipment supplier, its major customer distribution and order pace will directly affect optical module order volume expectations. The market expects its revenue to grow by 32.69%, with Non-GAAP EPS increasing by 183.15% year-over-year.

Industry Conferences

OFC 2026 will be held at the Los Angeles Convention Center from March 15-19. OFC (Optical Fiber Communication Conference) is equivalent to the annual Super Bowl of the global optical communication industry. Many technical route competitions, product launches, and business collaborations are set here. According to official predictions, about 16,000 people will attend, with over 700 exhibitors.

Key agenda points of the conference: March 15 - Marvell CPO special Workshop. March 16 - CEO roundtable closed-door meeting. March 17 - Plenary (core of the general assembly). March 17-19 - New product releases in the exhibition area. OFC 2026 sends very clear signals, with a CPO manufacturing seminar set for the first day of the conference.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 's GTC conference will be held from March 16-19, 2026, also a weathervane for optical modules.

Jensen Huang has previewed the release of a chip "never before seen in the world," which the market predicts to be a complete system-level product of the Rubin architecture—NVL144. The market generally predicts that under the NVL144 architecture, the ratio of GPUs to 1.6T optical modules may further increase. Additionally, some high-density cabinets (such as upgraded versions of NVLink 72 cabinets) are even beginning to explore 3.2T solutions. These factors may become the next round of catalysts for the optical communication sector.

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