Great Long-Term Prospect
Very Long-Term Picture
This company is one of the great's in the oil, gas, and utilities industries. The company has consistently been able to produce confidence in investors to perpetually bid the price up over the very long term. Even with a minimal dividend return. The price action has been traveling in an almost perfect price channel. They don't get much prettier than this.
The price action is nearing support of the very long-term channel, you can see in the chart directly below. If the very long-term trend is to continue, then I would expect a rebound very soon near this support level.
Medium-Term Picture
If we zoom in and take a closer look at the medium-term picture, then we will see that we might have a rebound on our hands. If this rebound gets confirmation, then that will confirm the possible support level I've highlighted in the chart below. At that point, we will have a nice price channel to follow with some appealing upside potential.
Near-Term Picture
Personally, I am very tempted to go long at these prices based on the long-term technicals. But if we take an even closer look at the very near-term picture, then we will see the price is near a short-term resistance level.
This tells me that I might want to wait for a dip since the price has run up sharply over the past 7 trading days.
Conclusion
$SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF(XOP.US$ and $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE.US$ have already broken out and are rallying once again. This will add to the bullish sentiment towards $Texas Pacific Land(TPL.US$.
Based on the technical outlook, this stock looks like a great buy at the moment. As long as the long-term trend holds up, then a rebound is in the works very soon if it hasn't begun already.
There is still a little bit more downside before the price officially touches the long-term support. But sometimes, a rebound can happen prematurely. Either way, I wouldn't worry about getting in too early with this name.
As long as the price stays within the long-term price channel, then I would be confidently bullish. If the price drops out of the channel that it has been in for almost a couple of decades, then I would definitely exit any long positions.
What do you think? Is it a good idea to invest in this company now?
$Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$ $Chevron(CVX.US$ $ConocoPhillips(COP.US$ $Valero Energy(VLO.US$ $Shell PLC(SHEL.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$ $Phillips 66(PSX.US$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US$ $Schlumberger(SLB.US$ $Murphy Oil(MUR.US$ $Murphy USA(MUSA.US$ $Sunoco(SUN.US$ $Marathon Oil(MRO.US$ $Marathon Petroleum(MPC.US$
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Trade the trends via technical, fundamental, and macro analysis. Day Trades, swing trades, and long-term investments.
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BelleWeather : I am hugely bullish on land, especially farmland and mineral rights. But I’m not convinced this is the best play right now (two years ago, perhaps.) I like FPI and GLAD better. And for oil and water, ARIS.
BelleWeather BelleWeather: My perspective is fundamental though - I think it a mistake to use TA in a long view this way.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: Well, as for long-term technicals, the longer a support line holds true, then the stronger it is. And this is a multi year support level. As for the fundamental picture, we are seeing the 3rd highest quarterly revenue and EPS ever recorded, and the correlation over the long-term is an upward trend in these two metrics. The third highest net profit ever recorded with a strong upward trend in this metric over several years. Highest ever net income attributable to stockholders ever recorded on an earnings call, and an even stronger upward trend in this variable over the years. They have a great dividend that has been increasing over the years. And since last quarter, their balance sheet has never looked better. Fundamentally this company looks great on their financial reports.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: As for business fundamentals, they make most of their money from leasing land. Land leases increase in cost over time with inflation and rising property values. Since US oil production has been steadily increasing over the years, their prospects for future profit look great. Especially if Trump gets elected. He has already stated that if he is president, then the US is going to "drill baby, drill." His words, not mine.
Personally, I think the long-term prospects look great. I could be wrong, though.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: These companies look good also.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: I've never even heard of these companies. Thanks for pointing them out.
SpyderCallOP BelleWeather: Remember that long-term technicals are usually an effect of the long-term fundamentals. I believe this is true in this case as their fundamentals and financials have been consistently improving over the years. This is why investors have been consistently bidding this stock price up. Sometimes, the technicals in the charts are irrational and don't reflect the companies fundamentals. I don't think this is the case with this ticker.
BelleWeather SpyderCallOP: Great! Thank you. I clearly have a lot to learn. I really appreciate your help in pointing these things out. They’d been non-intuitive to me and difficult to understand. Your explanations are incredibly helpful and I will study and think on them as they elucidate an approach that I can understand. Thanks again for your time and patience!
BelleWeather SpyderCallOP: Ah, see, even this I’d not connected. Thank you!
BelleWeather : I am so grateful for your generous guidance. I have been lost with technical analysis and am getting nervous about my MSTR gamble this coming week. I ordered a “For Dummies” book but it has gone over my head - and what you’ve laid out has shown me more clearly how these things relate to fundamentals and I am picking up a bit more on how to use TA in trading - it’s a whole new world, honestly. For shorter term stuff, I am practicing by trading crypto. I’d put a small amount of money into some projects last year that did well, so I took out my capital and am “playing” with house money. I was losing (or just staying even) until today in part because the fees were eating into even “good” trades. But, I made the number go up this morning by using the charts! It’s hugely satisfying and effective vs ‘put green into red’ which is what I’d been doing before. And the moves are magnified on prices with four decimal places. I still don’t have any of it truly straight in my head but have a better grasp after reading through your replies. And obviously the crypto isn’t about longterm trends (though I will leave some in my favorite projects and check back in three to five years after practicing up until the halving.) I’m replying somewhat at random, but look forward to reading and responding to your other comments when I’ve time (I’ve spent the whole morning on this, hahaha, I’m addicted.) I had your kind offer to answer my questions in the back of my mind but was so lost I couldn’t formulate one! Maybe that will change this week :). Have a great one
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