Gold rushes to US$4,000. Will it be US$5,000 in 12 months?
Gold rushes to historical high, US$4,000, but could it hit US$5,000 then US$6,000 next?
Gold broke above US$4,000 for the first time in history yesterday, but the precious metal still has fire in its belly — and could surge to just shy around US$6,000 in this cycle. Here’s why.
Gold has gained 55% from US$2,605 twelve months ago. Crazy, right? Not at all. On August 24, 2024, people gasped from the crowd as I stood on stage at the Australian Gold Conference and said: “Gold just rose above $2,500 — but I see it hitting US $4,000.” A little over twelve months later, it happened. It's not outrageous. The same thesis I had for gold rallying to this level — and for it potentially hitting US $6,000 maybe in over 12 months — still could probably apply.
Gold hits historical high, US$4,000. The 5 reasons it could be near US$6,000 in one year
1️⃣ Gold rallies after the Fed cuts rates
– After the last three Fed rate-cutting cycles, gold rallied an average 99% from the beginning of the cut cycle to the next peak.
– Gold is now up 52% since the first Fed rate cut of this cycle. If history repeats and gold rallies another 47% to its next peak, it could reach around US $5,880 within the next 12 months.
2️⃣ Central banks are buying more gold
– The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has resumed its gold purchases — and so have many others.
– 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council.
3️⃣ Debt-to-GDP concerns are rising globally
– The IMF, World Bank, credit rating agencies and market watchers are all sounding the alarm about surging debt-to-income ratios worldwide.
4️⃣ Geopolitical tensions are boosting demand
– Gold is a key reserve asset on many central bank balance sheets.
– It’s also a typical holding for investment managers and sophisticated investors because of its safe-haven qualities.
– Gold tends to move inversely to the US dollar — and the USD Index is down around 10% from its 2025 high in January.
5️⃣ Investment managers and ETFs are buying again
– Institutional buying has picked up since the Fed started cutting rates.
What I’m watching for the medium to long term - gold and Aussie shares
– Gold stocks, gold ETFs and physical gold, especially with the Fed expected to cut rates again in October and December (92% and 86% probabilities respectively, according to consensus).
– Newmont, $Newmont (NEM.US)$ the world’s largest gold producer, is one of the top 10 performing stocks this year on the ASX — up 124% ( $Newmont Corp (NEM.AU)$). Its US-listed shares are up 137% ( $Newmont (NEM.US)$) — and there could still be more firepower ahead if this thesis plays out.
– Separately consider this. November is historically the best month to be invested. On average, the Aussie share market has risen 4.6% in November over the past five years. Vanguard’s ASX ETF ( $Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS.AU)$ ) has averaged 5.06% in November. So you might want to get your ducks in a row — now — to benefit from the November gallop in the share market.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Jessica Amir
Moomoo Official Market Strategist
moomoo, market strategist.
Seen/heard on Fox News Business, ABC, SBS, Reuters wires.
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Jessica Amir OP 151453268 witso : Heyyy Hey! Thank you sooooo much for your support. Hi Ho silver, I mean gold away!
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105935067 Mula 106682462 : Sold two small golden eggs this morning
, kept one.