📰 FULL RESEARCH & PROJECTIONS 📰
This is a very detailed post about the future of Tesla. I highly reccomend you read it in full, however if you don’t have time I will post a shortened version in the comments below.
Is Tesla a Car Company or an AI Company?
- Valuing the Robot Revolution
Tesla's future isn't just about cars anymore. To understand its sky-high valuation, you have to look past the Model Ys on the highway and into the wilder, more ambitious projects brewing behind the scenes. The big one? Optimus, a humanoid robot that both Elon Musk and Cathy Wood believe could one day be a SIGNIFICANTLY larger industry than the entire world’s car manufacturing industry, which is currently valued at around $3,000,000,000,000 (3 Trillion Dollars) annually.
Let's break down what's really going on with Optimus, from the flashy demos to the tough engineering realities, and figure out what it means for Tesla's bottom line.
Part 1: The Optimus Gamble
From Sci-Fi Dream to Reality TV
The pitch for Optimus is straight out of science fiction: a robot that can do all the boring, repetitive, or dangerous jobs humans don't want to do. Think factory work, home chores, or even elder care. Musk isn't just building a robot; he's trying to build a new form of labor.
This whole venture is a direct offshoot of Tesla's work in AI. The plan is to use the same software that powers its Full Self-Driving (FSD) cars to give Optimus a brain. The same neural networks, the same Dojo supercomputer for training—it's all part of a grand strategy to apply AI to the physical world and beyond.
We've seen Optimus evolve quickly, from a guy in a suit in 2021 to a robot serving popcorn at the Tesla Diner in Hollywood in July 2025. These demos are pure marketing genius. Seeing a robot handle something as delicate as a popcorn bag is designed to go viral and show off fine motor skills. When Musk says, "this will become normal in a few years," he's selling a vision of the future to investors. These carefully crafted moments are a powerful counter-narrative to bad news about production delays or executive turnover.
But here’s the catch: many of these impressive feats were performed by robots being remotely controlled by a human, not acting on their own. It shows what’s possible in a controlled lab, not what's ready for the chaos of the real world. There’s a massive gap between public perception and engineering reality.
Reality Bites: The Hard Truth About Building Robots
For all the polished demos, the road to mass-producing Optimus has been incredibly bumpy. In mid-2025, word got out from Chinese suppliers that Tesla had slammed the brakes on parts orders for Optimus. This wasn't a minor hiccup; it was a full-blown production halt to redesign core components.
The problems they're facing are fundamental:
1. Overheating Motors: The robot's joints get too hot, limiting how long it can work.
2. Fragile Parts: The gearboxes and transmission mechanisms are wearing out way too fast for a machine that's supposed to work factory shifts.
3. Lousy Battery Life: The robot's endurance is reportedly less than half that of a human worker, making it impractical.
4. Weak Hands: The complex, 22-joint hands can't lift much and aren't durable.
To make matters worse, the head of the Optimus program, Milan Kovac, left the company in June 2025, right as the redesign kicked off. His duties were handed to Ashok Elluswamy, the long-time head of FSD, which further links the two projects but also puts immense pressure on one person.
This has forced Musk to dial back his famously aggressive timelines. After hinting at a 2023 release, the target for sales slipped to late 2025, then the goal of building 5,000-10,000 robots this year was quietly walked back. Now, the plan is to have Gen 3 prototypes by the end of 2025, with mass production hopefully starting in early 2026.
The core issue is the "general-purpose" dream. By trying to make a robot that looks and moves like a human, Tesla is battling insane trade-offs between weight, power, and durability. Competitors like Agility Robotics are having more success by keeping it simple. Their Digit robot has bird like legs and simple grippers, which is why they've already landed deals with giants like Amazon while Tesla is still wrestling with the basics.
A Trillion-Dollar Prize and a Crowded Field
The market for humanoid robots could be enormous. Projections are all over the map, from a conservative $15 billion by 2030 to a mind-boggling $5 trillion by 2050, according to Morgan Stanley. The bull case assumes these robots become a new, ubiquitous form of labor that reshapes the global economy.
But Tesla isn't alone. The field is getting crowded, with smart competitors taking different approaches. Figure AI and Apptronik are landing deals with BMW and Mercedes by focusing on logistics and manufacturing. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is trying to become the "brains" of the industry with its GROOT project, supplying AI models to everyone, such is the exact opposite of Tesla's DIY strategy. So there is heavy competition, however I have full faith that if anyone can pull this off it is Elon Musk (He likely already has a Neuralink chip installed in his brain)
How Optimus Could Make Money
Tesla's plan for Optimus is two-pronged. First, use the robots in its own factories (B2B). This lets them work out the kinks internally without trying to sell a flawed product. Once the robots are efficient and cheaper than human labor, Tesla can sell or lease them to other companies.
The long-term dream is the consumer market (B2C), selling an "Optimus in every home." Musk's targets are characteristically bold: a price of $20,000-$30,000 and production of one million robots a year within five years of launch. That's a potential $25 billion in annual revenue from hardware alone. Of course, given the production headaches, those numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
The strategy of using the robots in-house first is smart. With an estimated early cost of $60,000 per robot and low efficiency, they're currently unsellable. But by using them internally, Tesla can absorb the cost, gather data, and improve the product until it’s finally ready for prime time. It’s a patient, expensive path that most smaller startups can't afford.
Part 3: More Than Just a Robot Company!
While Optimus grabs headlines, Tesla's other ventures are just as critical to its future. These aren't separate projects; they're interconnected pieces of a single, massive ecosystem.
The Robotaxi Network: Cashing in on Autonomy
In June 2025, Tesla finally launched its Robotaxi pilot in Austin, TX. The rollout has been extremely cautious, a small fleet of Model Ys, a limited area, and human safety drivers on board. This is a far cry from Musk's promise to have the service available to "half the population of the U.S. by the end of 2025." Getting there depends entirely on navigating a minefield of state regulations.
Tesla’s big bet is its vision-only FSD system. By ditching the expensive Lidar sensors used by competitors like Waymo and Cruise, Tesla can collect data from its entire fleet of millions of cars. In theory, this data-gathering machine allows for faster AI improvement and means any Tesla could potentially become a Robotaxi with a software update (A scaling advantage no one else can match.)
The Energy Juggernaut: Tesla's Secret Profit Engine
Often overlooked, Tesla's energy division has become a quiet powerhouse. Its flagship product, the Megapack, is basically a giant battery for the power grid. It solves the biggest problem with renewables like solar and wind, they’re intermittent.
Megapacks store excess energy when it's sunny or windy and release it when demand is high, making the grid more stable and renewables more reliable.
Energy storage deployments more than doubled in 2024, and the division's profits are soaring, helped by tax credits. Musk sees quote: “insane" levels of demand for stationary storage, suggesting this silent profit engine is just getting started.
Next-Gen Cars, Defending the Core Business.
With all this futuristic tech, it's easy to forget Tesla still has to sell cars. Facing fierce competition from Chinese brands like BYD, Tesla needs a cheaper vehicle to drive growth.
Enter the "Model 2." This new, lower-cost model, expected in late 2025, will be built using a revolutionary "Unboxed Process." Instead of a traditional assembly line, large parts of the car will be built simultaneously and then pieced together at the end. This is designed to slash costs, shrink the factory footprint, and speed up production.
These three pillars which are Robotaxi, Energy, and Next-Gen EVs are designed to feed each other. Cheaper EVs create a bigger fleet for the Robotaxi network. A massive Robotaxi network creates huge demand for electricity, which will be supplied by Tesla's Supercharger network and stabilized by its Megapacks. It's a closed-loop ecosystem for transportation and energy, designed to lock customers in.
Part 3: The Final Verdict:
What's Tesla Really Worth?
Investing in Tesla today is a high-risk, high-reward bet on AI and robotics, however the risk to reward ratio is immaculate. The current stock price already assumes a lot of this future tech will actually work.
- The Strategy and The Moat
Tesla's secret sauce is its AI-data flywheel. It uses data from its cars to train its AI, which powers FSD, the Robotaxi network, and eventually, the Optimus robot. This, combined with its DIY approach to making everything from chips to batteries, creates a competitive moat that's incredibly hard for others to cross. The end goal is to shift from selling cars for a one time profit to earning recurring revenue from Robotaxi fees and robot subscriptions.
Now let’s dive into the bear case.. 🐻
The path to this future is full of traps!
1. Execution Risk: Tesla has a long history of missing deadlines and overpromising. The gap between Musk's timelines and engineering reality is a constant worry.
2. Competition: Waymo is ahead in driverless tech, agile robotics startups like Figure AI are already deploying robots, and BYD is a monster in the affordable EV market.
3. Regulatory Roadblocks: A single bad accident involving a Robotaxi could set the company back years. The laws for humanoid robots haven't even been written yet… A traditional valuation doesn't work for Tesla. You have to value it in pieces. The core car/energy business, the high-risk Robotaxi network, and the ultra speculative Optimus venture.
The Bull vs. Bear Scenarios for 2030
It really boils down to two possible futures.
Firstly, The Bull Case (The AI Dream): Tesla cracks the code on full autonomy. The Robotaxi network is a cash cow, Optimus is working in factories, and Tesla is valued as a dominant AI platform. Potential stock price of $2,000+
Now The Bear Case (The Reality Check)
Autonomy proves too hard. Optimus remains a clunky prototype. Competitors eat away at its market share. Tesla is just a car company with shrinking margins. Potential stock price of $150.
Again, the current price is approximately $300 and the stock could grow to $2000 or fall to $150. This equates to an amazing risk to reward ratio of approximately 1:13.33
In other words either a 50% loss or a 666% gain.
Interesting right, we have the mark of the devil 666 on one side of the risk to reward ratio or if you’re into numerology 666 has its own meaning. On the other side we see 333 Anyway that’s enough religious and numerology talk for now.. Let’s dive into my conclusion.
Conclusion:
So, What's the Play?
An investment in Tesla is no longer a bet on EVs. It's a bet on Musk's ability to pull off an unprecedented pivot into AI and robotics.
My analysis suggests that while the potential gains are enormous, the risks are just as big. The current stock price seems to be pricing in a lot of the optimism without fully accounting for the brutal challenges ahead.
For investors, the key things to watch are no longer just quarterly car deliveries. Instead, ask these questions:
1. Can they fix the robot? Watch for real evidence that Optimus can work for hours without overheating or breaking down in a real factory, not just a slick demo.
2. Will the regulators play ball? The timeline for Robotaxi revenue depends entirely on government approvals, not tech demos.
3. Can the core business keep funding the dream? The car and energy divisions need to stay profitable to pay for these moonshots.
4. Is the competition catching up? Watch what Waymo, Figure AI, and BYD are actually shipping to customers. Their real-world success is the best benchmark for Tesla's progress.
Again I want to emphasise the incredible risk to reward ratio of 1:13.33
We are only talking of 2030 targets. My 2050 predictions I am yet to come to conclusions with yet as we monitor the situation.
My personal recommendation:
This is a no brainer, the risk to reward ratio is incredible.
Hold. This is a long term play.
NFA disclaimer: This advice is for general educational purposes and may not apply to your particular financial situation. You must do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any decisions.
- Valuing the Robot Revolution
Tesla's future isn't just about cars anymore. To understand its sky-high valuation, you have to look past the Model Ys on the highway and into the wilder, more ambitious projects brewing behind the scenes. The big one? Optimus, a humanoid robot that both Elon Musk and Cathy Wood believe could one day be a SIGNIFICANTLY larger industry than the entire world’s car manufacturing industry, which is currently valued at around $3,000,000,000,000 (3 Trillion Dollars) annually.
Let's break down what's really going on with Optimus, from the flashy demos to the tough engineering realities, and figure out what it means for Tesla's bottom line.
Part 1: The Optimus Gamble
From Sci-Fi Dream to Reality TV
The pitch for Optimus is straight out of science fiction: a robot that can do all the boring, repetitive, or dangerous jobs humans don't want to do. Think factory work, home chores, or even elder care. Musk isn't just building a robot; he's trying to build a new form of labor.
This whole venture is a direct offshoot of Tesla's work in AI. The plan is to use the same software that powers its Full Self-Driving (FSD) cars to give Optimus a brain. The same neural networks, the same Dojo supercomputer for training—it's all part of a grand strategy to apply AI to the physical world and beyond.
We've seen Optimus evolve quickly, from a guy in a suit in 2021 to a robot serving popcorn at the Tesla Diner in Hollywood in July 2025. These demos are pure marketing genius. Seeing a robot handle something as delicate as a popcorn bag is designed to go viral and show off fine motor skills. When Musk says, "this will become normal in a few years," he's selling a vision of the future to investors. These carefully crafted moments are a powerful counter-narrative to bad news about production delays or executive turnover.
But here’s the catch: many of these impressive feats were performed by robots being remotely controlled by a human, not acting on their own. It shows what’s possible in a controlled lab, not what's ready for the chaos of the real world. There’s a massive gap between public perception and engineering reality.
Reality Bites: The Hard Truth About Building Robots
For all the polished demos, the road to mass-producing Optimus has been incredibly bumpy. In mid-2025, word got out from Chinese suppliers that Tesla had slammed the brakes on parts orders for Optimus. This wasn't a minor hiccup; it was a full-blown production halt to redesign core components.
The problems they're facing are fundamental:
1. Overheating Motors: The robot's joints get too hot, limiting how long it can work.
2. Fragile Parts: The gearboxes and transmission mechanisms are wearing out way too fast for a machine that's supposed to work factory shifts.
3. Lousy Battery Life: The robot's endurance is reportedly less than half that of a human worker, making it impractical.
4. Weak Hands: The complex, 22-joint hands can't lift much and aren't durable.
To make matters worse, the head of the Optimus program, Milan Kovac, left the company in June 2025, right as the redesign kicked off. His duties were handed to Ashok Elluswamy, the long-time head of FSD, which further links the two projects but also puts immense pressure on one person.
This has forced Musk to dial back his famously aggressive timelines. After hinting at a 2023 release, the target for sales slipped to late 2025, then the goal of building 5,000-10,000 robots this year was quietly walked back. Now, the plan is to have Gen 3 prototypes by the end of 2025, with mass production hopefully starting in early 2026.
The core issue is the "general-purpose" dream. By trying to make a robot that looks and moves like a human, Tesla is battling insane trade-offs between weight, power, and durability. Competitors like Agility Robotics are having more success by keeping it simple. Their Digit robot has bird like legs and simple grippers, which is why they've already landed deals with giants like Amazon while Tesla is still wrestling with the basics.
A Trillion-Dollar Prize and a Crowded Field
The market for humanoid robots could be enormous. Projections are all over the map, from a conservative $15 billion by 2030 to a mind-boggling $5 trillion by 2050, according to Morgan Stanley. The bull case assumes these robots become a new, ubiquitous form of labor that reshapes the global economy.
But Tesla isn't alone. The field is getting crowded, with smart competitors taking different approaches. Figure AI and Apptronik are landing deals with BMW and Mercedes by focusing on logistics and manufacturing. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is trying to become the "brains" of the industry with its GROOT project, supplying AI models to everyone, such is the exact opposite of Tesla's DIY strategy. So there is heavy competition, however I have full faith that if anyone can pull this off it is Elon Musk (He likely already has a Neuralink chip installed in his brain)
How Optimus Could Make Money
Tesla's plan for Optimus is two-pronged. First, use the robots in its own factories (B2B). This lets them work out the kinks internally without trying to sell a flawed product. Once the robots are efficient and cheaper than human labor, Tesla can sell or lease them to other companies.
The long-term dream is the consumer market (B2C), selling an "Optimus in every home." Musk's targets are characteristically bold: a price of $20,000-$30,000 and production of one million robots a year within five years of launch. That's a potential $25 billion in annual revenue from hardware alone. Of course, given the production headaches, those numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
The strategy of using the robots in-house first is smart. With an estimated early cost of $60,000 per robot and low efficiency, they're currently unsellable. But by using them internally, Tesla can absorb the cost, gather data, and improve the product until it’s finally ready for prime time. It’s a patient, expensive path that most smaller startups can't afford.
Part 3: More Than Just a Robot Company!
While Optimus grabs headlines, Tesla's other ventures are just as critical to its future. These aren't separate projects; they're interconnected pieces of a single, massive ecosystem.
The Robotaxi Network: Cashing in on Autonomy
In June 2025, Tesla finally launched its Robotaxi pilot in Austin, TX. The rollout has been extremely cautious, a small fleet of Model Ys, a limited area, and human safety drivers on board. This is a far cry from Musk's promise to have the service available to "half the population of the U.S. by the end of 2025." Getting there depends entirely on navigating a minefield of state regulations.
Tesla’s big bet is its vision-only FSD system. By ditching the expensive Lidar sensors used by competitors like Waymo and Cruise, Tesla can collect data from its entire fleet of millions of cars. In theory, this data-gathering machine allows for faster AI improvement and means any Tesla could potentially become a Robotaxi with a software update (A scaling advantage no one else can match.)
The Energy Juggernaut: Tesla's Secret Profit Engine
Often overlooked, Tesla's energy division has become a quiet powerhouse. Its flagship product, the Megapack, is basically a giant battery for the power grid. It solves the biggest problem with renewables like solar and wind, they’re intermittent.
Megapacks store excess energy when it's sunny or windy and release it when demand is high, making the grid more stable and renewables more reliable.
Energy storage deployments more than doubled in 2024, and the division's profits are soaring, helped by tax credits. Musk sees quote: “insane" levels of demand for stationary storage, suggesting this silent profit engine is just getting started.
Next-Gen Cars, Defending the Core Business.
With all this futuristic tech, it's easy to forget Tesla still has to sell cars. Facing fierce competition from Chinese brands like BYD, Tesla needs a cheaper vehicle to drive growth.
Enter the "Model 2." This new, lower-cost model, expected in late 2025, will be built using a revolutionary "Unboxed Process." Instead of a traditional assembly line, large parts of the car will be built simultaneously and then pieced together at the end. This is designed to slash costs, shrink the factory footprint, and speed up production.
These three pillars which are Robotaxi, Energy, and Next-Gen EVs are designed to feed each other. Cheaper EVs create a bigger fleet for the Robotaxi network. A massive Robotaxi network creates huge demand for electricity, which will be supplied by Tesla's Supercharger network and stabilized by its Megapacks. It's a closed-loop ecosystem for transportation and energy, designed to lock customers in.
Part 3: The Final Verdict:
What's Tesla Really Worth?
Investing in Tesla today is a high-risk, high-reward bet on AI and robotics, however the risk to reward ratio is immaculate. The current stock price already assumes a lot of this future tech will actually work.
- The Strategy and The Moat
Tesla's secret sauce is its AI-data flywheel. It uses data from its cars to train its AI, which powers FSD, the Robotaxi network, and eventually, the Optimus robot. This, combined with its DIY approach to making everything from chips to batteries, creates a competitive moat that's incredibly hard for others to cross. The end goal is to shift from selling cars for a one time profit to earning recurring revenue from Robotaxi fees and robot subscriptions.
Now let’s dive into the bear case.. 🐻
The path to this future is full of traps!
1. Execution Risk: Tesla has a long history of missing deadlines and overpromising. The gap between Musk's timelines and engineering reality is a constant worry.
2. Competition: Waymo is ahead in driverless tech, agile robotics startups like Figure AI are already deploying robots, and BYD is a monster in the affordable EV market.
3. Regulatory Roadblocks: A single bad accident involving a Robotaxi could set the company back years. The laws for humanoid robots haven't even been written yet… A traditional valuation doesn't work for Tesla. You have to value it in pieces. The core car/energy business, the high-risk Robotaxi network, and the ultra speculative Optimus venture.
The Bull vs. Bear Scenarios for 2030
It really boils down to two possible futures.
Firstly, The Bull Case (The AI Dream): Tesla cracks the code on full autonomy. The Robotaxi network is a cash cow, Optimus is working in factories, and Tesla is valued as a dominant AI platform. Potential stock price of $2,000+
Now The Bear Case (The Reality Check)
Autonomy proves too hard. Optimus remains a clunky prototype. Competitors eat away at its market share. Tesla is just a car company with shrinking margins. Potential stock price of $150.
Again, the current price is approximately $300 and the stock could grow to $2000 or fall to $150. This equates to an amazing risk to reward ratio of approximately 1:13.33
In other words either a 50% loss or a 666% gain.
Interesting right, we have the mark of the devil 666 on one side of the risk to reward ratio or if you’re into numerology 666 has its own meaning. On the other side we see 333 Anyway that’s enough religious and numerology talk for now.. Let’s dive into my conclusion.
Conclusion:
So, What's the Play?
An investment in Tesla is no longer a bet on EVs. It's a bet on Musk's ability to pull off an unprecedented pivot into AI and robotics.
My analysis suggests that while the potential gains are enormous, the risks are just as big. The current stock price seems to be pricing in a lot of the optimism without fully accounting for the brutal challenges ahead.
For investors, the key things to watch are no longer just quarterly car deliveries. Instead, ask these questions:
1. Can they fix the robot? Watch for real evidence that Optimus can work for hours without overheating or breaking down in a real factory, not just a slick demo.
2. Will the regulators play ball? The timeline for Robotaxi revenue depends entirely on government approvals, not tech demos.
3. Can the core business keep funding the dream? The car and energy divisions need to stay profitable to pay for these moonshots.
4. Is the competition catching up? Watch what Waymo, Figure AI, and BYD are actually shipping to customers. Their real-world success is the best benchmark for Tesla's progress.
Again I want to emphasise the incredible risk to reward ratio of 1:13.33
We are only talking of 2030 targets. My 2050 predictions I am yet to come to conclusions with yet as we monitor the situation.
My personal recommendation:
This is a no brainer, the risk to reward ratio is incredible.
Hold. This is a long term play.
NFA disclaimer: This advice is for general educational purposes and may not apply to your particular financial situation. You must do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any decisions.
-
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
| Financial Reporter | Business Owner | Background in Accounting | Medium/Long Term Investor | High Dividends.©️NFA
1041
Followers
53
Following
4117
Visitors
Follow
Market Insights
Hot Topics
Trump's 'Taco deal' sparks market rebound : Market rebound sustainable ?
1. If tariffs pause, which sectors benefit first? 2. Trump's "threat-compromise" cycle normalizes—how to hedge across assets?
Moo Options Explorer
Apr 7 17:28
Weekly roundup: Tariff turmoil and recession fears dominate
GLOBAL INVESTOR OP : TLDR:
My analysys rating: Buy and hold long Term Investment. Buy and hold long term.
Positive risk to reward ratio of 1:13.33
Bull case 2030: $2,000+ per share. (≈666.666% gains by 2030)
Bear Case 2030: $150 per share. (≈50% loss by 2030)
NFA disclaimer: This advice is for general educational purposes and may not apply to your particular financial situation. You must do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any financial decisions.