Falling Inflation May Clear the Way for 2026 Rate Cuts: US CPI Breakdown in One Chart
U.S. annual inflation slowed to 2.7% in November 2025—the lowest since July—below the 3.1% consensus and down from 3.0% in September.
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, fell to 2.6% in November 2025, the lowest since March 2021 and below market expectations of 3%.
Energy prices rose 4.2% year over year, with gasoline up 0.9%, fuel oil up 11.3%, and natural gas up 9.1%. Food increased by 2.6% and shelter cost increased by 3.0%.
Other notable gains included medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%).
The smallest increases were in apparel (0.2%) and new vehicles (0.6%).
Due to a 43-day government shutdown, the BLS did not collect October 2025 data; October figures are missing and monthly November data were not released. The BLS reported the CPI rose 0.2% over the two months from September to November 2025.
The U.S. stock index surged after the release.
The market still expects two rate cuts in 2026. However, if inflation continues to decline, expectations for the number of cuts could increase.
By Moomoo Equity Research Team Calvin
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Watermelon Bull : either way, it inflates in the end eh....
BearBear98 : I don't ingest petroleum products. I don't buy new clothes daily. I don't know where they shop for food, but it isn't in Florida. So my inflation rate is above 3.5%.
Slay2dudes : ok
sunwu79 :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
15块钱买花盆 : The data is as fake as it gets. Continue to remove the items with large increases, and in the end, just look at apparel.
71418983 : Micron technology bulls believe that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) will not see further growth in 2026, and prices may retrace. The positive news has been fully priced in. take prifet run fast
jenesron05 : ok
BuzzingBee : Strange..... though I don't live there, but most things I come across are the cost of living is going up. Inflation probably has nothing to do with ordinary people's lives. LOL!!!!
AmTrAder : all consist of basic needs or better known as amenities