Factors that could push up US bond yields include the announ...

Factors that could push up US bond yields include the announcement by the US Treasury this week to expand the size of its quarterly refinancing auctions for the first time in two and a half years, with increased supply of 10-year and 30-year bonds starting next week. However, the supply of short-term US bonds will also gradually increase in the coming quarters to meet the demand for end-of-year cash balances.
In addition, the Bank of Japan has signaled adjustments to its yield curve control policy since last Friday's meeting, which could ultimately end the ultra-loose monetary policy. This could weaken demand from Japanese investors, who are major buyers of US bonds, and potentially lead to a widening decline in US bond prices.
However, as prominent market figures such as Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman have differing views on US bonds, Wall Street analysts have not yet reached a consensus.
The team at J.P. Morgan, led by strategist Alexander Wise, maintains its forecast that the real yield on 10-year US bonds (adjusted for inflation) will reach 2.5% in the next decade, citing "continuously growing fiscal burden" as one of the most important drivers of long-term growth in real yields.
On the other hand, Stephen Miller, an investment strategist at GSFM in Sydney, believes that US bond yields are unlikely to significantly rise from current levels, as investors may have already priced in the worsening US fiscal situation, despite the downgrade by Fitch Ratings, which has attracted more attention to this focal point. Therefore, buying US bonds is a good choice, and "the more important dynamic is that the Federal Reserve has its own inflation measure."