[Earnings Preview] How far will Mitsubishi UFJ's highest profit grow? Note whether there are additional shareholder returns
● $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group(8306.JP$(MUFG) is scheduled to announce financial results for the fiscal year ending 2024/3 on 5/15.
● Earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending 2014/3 at the time of the announcement of interim financial results are net operating profit down 9.0% from the previous fiscal year to 1.45 trillion yen, ordinary profit up 81.2% to 1.85 trillion yen, and net profit up 16.4% to 1.3 trillion yen.
● As of the third quarter financial results, net operating profit reached 1,520.2 billion yen, ordinary profit of 1,801.9 billion yen, and net profit of 1,297.9 billion yen, all of whichIt has exceeded full-year earnings forecasts。In terms of profit, it has already surpassed the full year of the previous fiscal year, and net profit has hit a record high for the full year。
● There is also a possibility that additional shareholder returns will be carried out in order to counteract the situation where the PBR, which is the “passing point,” is broken by 1 times.Profits accumulate at about the same pace as the third quarter, and if a dividend payout ratio of 40%, which is the target for fiscal year 23, is achieved, there is room for dividends to increase。
● According to evaluations by 12 analysts, bullish and slightly bullish are 41.67%, and neutral and slightly bearish are 8.33% each, and the overall evaluation is “slightly bullish.” The average target stock price is 1655.42 yen, which is 3.9% higher than when the closing price was on the 10th.
● Earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending 2014/3 at the time of the announcement of interim financial results are net operating profit down 9.0% from the previous fiscal year to 1.45 trillion yen, ordinary profit up 81.2% to 1.85 trillion yen, and net profit up 16.4% to 1.3 trillion yen.
● As of the third quarter financial results, net operating profit reached 1,520.2 billion yen, ordinary profit of 1,801.9 billion yen, and net profit of 1,297.9 billion yen, all of whichIt has exceeded full-year earnings forecasts。In terms of profit, it has already surpassed the full year of the previous fiscal year, and net profit has hit a record high for the full year。
● There is also a possibility that additional shareholder returns will be carried out in order to counteract the situation where the PBR, which is the “passing point,” is broken by 1 times.Profits accumulate at about the same pace as the third quarter, and if a dividend payout ratio of 40%, which is the target for fiscal year 23, is achieved, there is room for dividends to increase。
● According to evaluations by 12 analysts, bullish and slightly bullish are 41.67%, and neutral and slightly bearish are 8.33% each, and the overall evaluation is “slightly bullish.” The average target stock price is 1655.42 yen, which is 3.9% higher than when the closing price was on the 10th.
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The fiscal period for US Morgan Stanley, which is a company applying the equity method, has been changed, and there are times when it has been added to the 3-month surplus, and the fiscal year ending 24/3 has already exceeded the record high profit (1.13.8 billion yen for the fiscal year ending 22/3) as of the 3rd quarter (April-12).2.1 billion yen remaining until the annual target of 1.3 trillion yenIt is approaching, and further increases can be expected. I had an annual target of 7.5%ROE (return on equity) also reached around 6.9% as of the 3rd quarter。
The third quarter (23/10-12) saw an upward phase in domestic interest rate levels, and profit margins grew. Compared to the second quarter (July-September), for small and medium-sized enterprises, it fell 0.01 points to 0.56%, but for large enterprises, it rose 0.04 points to 0.64%.
Although the interest rate level in the fourth quarter was not as high as in the third quarter, there is a possibility that it was able to maintain a trend close to the third quarter.
Overseas operating companies also contributed greatly to improving performanceAs of the financial results for the 3rd quarter (23-4/12), the total contributions made by the subsidiaries Bank of Thailand Ayutthaya (Krunsi), Indonesia Danamon Bank, Australia First Sentia Investors, and US Morgan Stanley, a company applying the equity method, have risen to over 390 billion yen.
Although stock prices have risen by about 30% in '24, President Hiroki Kamezawa talks about it as a “passing point”It's still below 1 times PBR。
There is also a possibility that stock prices will be raised through shareholder returns such as dividends increases or stock buybacks by utilizing cash obtained from strong performance.
According to the company's basic shareholder return policy, with regard to dividends, “the basic policy is a stable and sustainable increase in dividends per share through profit growth,Aim for a progressive increase in dividend payout ratio to 40% by fiscal year 23It says”. Assuming that net profit accumulates at the same pace as until the 3rd quarter, final profit is about 1.73 trillion yen, net profit per share is about 144 yen, and when dividend payout ratio is simply calculated at 40%, the dividend amount per share is around 57 yen.
The current dividend forecast is 20.5 yen each for the middle and end of the fiscal year, for a total of 41 yen,When the payout ratio is set to 40%, it is calculated that the dividend will be increased by about 16 yen。
Meanwhile, with regard to share buybacks, Mitsubishi UFJ has indicated a policy to “consider the market environment including performance and capital conditions, growth investment opportunities, and stock prices, and implement them flexibly.”Company stock buybacks have been carried out every year for the past 10 years. Recently, since a stock repurchase worth 400 billion yen was just completed in 24/3, it seems unlikely that a stock buyback will begin in line with financial results announcements.
Another point of interest when financial results are announced is the earnings forecast for fiscal year 24 (fiscal year ending 25/3). As with when financial results were announced in the past, it seems that detailed figures will not be specified,A major point is whether the net profit target will be added from fiscal year 23It becomes.
Since there are 3 months' worth of additions due to changes in the fiscal year 23 (fiscal year ending 24/3) financial results, there are downside factors in fiscal year 24, but conversely, there are factors where an increase can be expected from fiscal year 23.
A major factor that can be expected to increase profits from fiscal year 23 is the domestic interest rate level. The Bank of Japan lifted negative interest rates in March, and speculation about additional interest rate increases is spreading in the market. For this reason,It is also conceivable to make earnings forecasts that anticipate optimistic interest rates。
In addition to this,Revenue from investee companies in Asia positioned as the “second mother market”andGrowth in asset management businesses aiming to establish the “fourth pillar”How much is expected is likely to have an impact on the outlook for business results to a certain extent.
ー MooMoo News Mark
Source: Mitsubishi UFJ website, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Moomoo
Source: Mitsubishi UFJ website, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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182372348 : We hold Mitsubishi UFJ shares in US stock trading, but they have been salted. Will it go up?