March Core CPI Missed Expectation: Can Relief Rally Extend?

CasualInvestor

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Day 362: Rate Cuts + Trump 2.0 Day 405

🕐 Market Recap | Monday, Mar 2, 2026

SPX under pressure near 6,870 while silver unwinds and NVDA attempts a relief bounce.

🇺🇸 Index & Volatility

• SPX $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ 6,867 (-0.16%) → Sitting below 6,900 pivot
• VIX $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ 21.21 (+6.80%) → Volatility firmly above 20

👉 VIX above 21 keeps pressure on dips.

This is NOT a low-vol grind environment.

🔥 Magnificent 7

NVDA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ +2.20%

Strong bounce from 175–178 area. Needs reclaim of 185–190 for real shift.

MSFT $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ +1.84%

Testing 400–401 zone again. Key psychological level.

META $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ +1.12%

Higher high attempt. Constructive intraday structure.

TSLA $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ +0.24%

Recovered from 388 flush. Still fragile under 405.

AAPL $Apple (AAPL.US)$ +0.22%

Trying to base around 262–265. Not leading.

AMZN $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ -0.99%

Still weak. Failing to hold 208–210 range.

GOOGL $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ -1.94%

Underperformer. Breakdown structure intact.

👉 Leadership split.

Semis bouncing, but broader tech not confirming.

🥈 Metals & Macro Rotation

Now the big move 👇

Earlier strength flipped:

Silver Futures -5.46%

SLV $iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ -6.31%

Aggressive unwind from parabolic highs.

Silver Spot $XAG/USD (XAGUSD.FX)$ -6.25%

Momentum traders exiting fast.

GLD $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ +0.49%

Gold ($XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$) +0.17%

Holding relatively stable vs silver collapse.

USD Index +1.09%

Strong dollar = pressure on metals.

US10Y 4.05% (+2.46%)

Yields rising again = headwind for growth.

👉 This is positioning flush, not quiet consolidation.

Silver’s blow-off likely triggered profit-taking cascade.

📈 What I’m Watching

• SPX must reclaim 6,900 to regain bullish footing.

• NVDA needs hold above 180 for bounce continuation.

• VIX staying above 21 = intraday volatility persists.

• Silver under 90 = further unwind risk toward mid-80s.

🎯 Takeaways

This is a tug-of-war session:

• Equities trying to stabilise

• Volatility elevated

• Metals reversing sharply

• Dollar strong

When VIX > 20 and yields rising,

position size > prediction.

No need to be aggressive in chop.

Let structure confirm.

CasualInvestor: Day 361: Rate Cuts + Trump 2.0 Day 402

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