March Core CPI Missed Expectation: Can Relief Rally Extend?

CasualInvestor

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Day 360: Rate Cuts + Trump 2.0 Day 401

🕐 Market Recap | Thursday, Feb 26, 2026

SPX loses 6,900, semis hit hard, silver unwinds, volatility creeping back in.

🇺🇸 Index & Volatility

• SPX $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ 6,900 (-0.66%) → Lost morning highs near 6,950
• VIX $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ 19.21 (elevated) → Risk premium rebuilding

👉 Failed breakout above 6,950 = classic bull trap setup.

Under 6,900 opens room toward 6,870–6,850 support.

🔥 Magnificent 7

MSFT $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ +0.36%

Holding above 400 but momentum fading.

META $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ +0.33%

Strong relative performance — buyers defending dips.

AAPL $Apple (AAPL.US)$ -0.66%

Lost 273–274 zone. Weak tape.

AMZN $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ -1.06%

Failed push above 211. Lower highs forming.

TSLA $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ -1.98%

Rejected from 417–420. Now back near 409.

GOOGL $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ -2.03%

Heavy selling. Breakdown structure intact.

NVDA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ -4.12%

Clear risk-off signal. Lost 190 decisively.

👉 Leadership cracking = especially NVDA.

When semis roll over, the index usually follows.

🥈 Metals & Macro Watch

Silver $XAG/USD (XAGUSD.FX)$ -2.39%

Parabolic unwind. Momentum traders exiting.

SLV $iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ -1.49%

ETF confirming weakness.

Gold ($XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$) +0.18%

Holding relatively steady — defensive bid.

GLD ($SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$) +0.56%

USD Index +0.13%

Stronger dollar = pressure on metals.

US10Y ~4.02% (slightly lower)

Yields easing but not enough to support tech.

👉 This looks more like positioning unwind than macro panic.

📉 What Changed?

Morning = breakout attempt.

Midday = rejection + selling pressure.

Key shift:

• NVDA heavy red

• SPX failed at resistance

• Silver reversal

That’s liquidity rotating out, not expanding.

🎯 Takeaway

This is where discipline matters.

If:

• SPX can reclaim 6,920–6,930

→ Bullish recovery possible.

If:

• NVDA stays below 190

→ Expect more downside pressure.

When leadership cracks, you reduce aggression, not increase it.

Today feels like a:

🟠 “Test the dip buyers” session.

CasualInvestor: Day 359: Rate Cuts + Trump 2.0 Day 400

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