Daily Market Outlook - 19 March

19th Mar 2024 (Tues) Daily Market Outlook

Summary - What Is Happening In The Markets

Stock markets in the US opened to a slow start yesterday and pared some of its losses by the end of trading day. S&P futures climbed by +0.60% while NASDAQ futures added +0.91%, with both markets halting a 3-day drop. Traders are expected to be a bit more cautious as volatility increases in the days ahead as central banks across the globe prepare to announce their interest rates decision with BOJ starting later today.

Asian markets edged lower on the expectations that BOJ will finally end its negative interest rates regime and the unorthodox method of yield curve control (YCC) at a meeting later today. NIKKEI225 led the drop with -0.83% as investors start pricing in a BOJ cut ahead of the announcement. HSI retreated by -0.73% on the news that Chinese regulators reported that China Evergrande previously inflated their revenues before going into liquidation. STI opened unchanged this morning.

US Market Key Charts (S&P, US Dollar, Brent Crude Oil, Gold)

US Equities (4 Hour Chart) - [Bearish ↘️ *] S&P drifted higher and is now holding below 5226.50 resistance. Level below which we turn bearish with low conviction, expecting price to do a short term pullback lower towards 5168.00 support. Technical indicators are mixed for now.

Alternatively: A 4 hour candlestick close above 5226.50 will open further recovery towards 5277.00 resistance next.

US Dollar (4 Hour Chart) - [Bullish ↗️ *] DXY pushed higher, surpassing previous resistance. We turn bullish for now, expecting price to shape a pause above 103.350 support before a push higher towards 103.960 resistance. Technical indicators are bullish.

Alternatively: A 4 hour candlestick close below 103.350 support will open a deeper drop towards next support at 103.050.

Brent Crude Oil Futures (4 Hour Chart) - [Bullish ↗️ **] Oil futures pushed higher surpassing previous resistance. We turn bullish with good conviction. A pause above 85.75 support is expected before a fresh push higher towards 88.50 resistance. Technical indicators are advocating for a bullish scenario as well.

Alternatively: A candlestick close below 85.75 support will open a deeper drop towards next support at 84.80.

Gold Futures (4 Hour Chart) - [Neutral] As expected, gold prices drifted higher but failed to reach previous target at 2177.00 resistance. We turn neutral for now as indicators are mixed. Both moving average and MACD is flat, showing no really strength to momentum. A candlestick close above 2177.00 resistance will open further rise towards 2205.00 resistance next.

Alternatively: A candlestick close below 2150.00 will open a deeper drop towards 2134.00 support next.

SG Market - STI

SG Equities (4 Hour Chart) - [Bullish ↗️ *] View unchanged with STI drifting higher above ascending trendline support at 3160.50. We maintain our bullish outlook for now, expecting price to bounce towards 3199.00 resistance. Technical indicators are advocating for a bullish scenario and MACD indicator is showing that price is within bullish environment.

Alternatively: A candlestick close below 3160.50 support will open a drop towards next support at 3142.00.

Economic Calendar – Events to Watch

JP Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision - 18th Mar (Tuesday)**