Crypto Weekly Digest | BTC hits $60K then $70K: Is this the bottom or just a bounce?

Crypto-Moo joined discussion · Feb 10 04:10

Market Summary

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ fell dramatically last week, plunging 4.8% intraday on February 6 to touch $60,033 during Asian trading hours before staging a sharp V-shaped recovery. The cryptocurrency now rebounded to around $70,000, representing a significant rebound from the week's lows. This volatile action came after $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ dropped over 14% on Thursday, February 5, marking its largest single-day decline since the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022. From its October peak of $126,000, Bitcoin has retraced over 50%, with the decline trajectory echoing the November 2022 crash and marking entry into deep bear territory.

Crypto Weekly Digest | BTC hits $60K then $70K: Is this the bottom or just a bounce?

$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ slumped in parallel with Bitcoin throughout the week, falling from a high of around $2,400 to a low of close to $1,750, as selling pressure intensified across the broader cryptocurrency market. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ now quotes close to $2,000, having gradually recovered from its weekly lows.

The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 10, indicating "Extreme Fear" as market participants grapple with heightened volatility, and critical questions about support levels.

This Week's Key Upcoming Events

Will Delayed Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI Data Trigger New Volatility?

Due to the previous US government shutdown, January's non-farm payroll report has been delayed to February 11 (Wednesday) at 21:30, and January's CPI report to February 13 (Friday) at 21:30. This dual heavy-weight data release during the final trading week before Lunar New Year holidays could trigger significant market turbulence.

Why it matters: These macro indicators will heavily influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and broader risk asset appetite. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reduce rate cut expectations and pressure Bitcoin, while weak employment data might raise recession fears and trigger risk-off flows.

Can Trump's Crypto Legislation Provide Market Support?

Trump previously stated he hopes to complete the signing "soon." The bipartisan Digital Asset Market Structure Act remains stalled in Congress over stablecoin provision disputes, contributing to elevated 30-day Bitcoin volatility above 40%.

Why it matters: Clear regulatory frameworks could restore investor confidence and provide institutional capital with the clarity needed to re-enter the market. Conversely, continued legislative delays may prolong uncertainty and keep risk appetite suppressed, potentially weighing on a sustained price recovery.

Perspectives

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Why Crypto Is Down and When It Might Bottom?

After Bitcoin's 15% plunge, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan pinpointed six drivers behind the downturn: long-term holders selling over $100B in Bitcoin, attention shifting to AI stocks and precious metals, October's record leverage liquidation triggered by Trump's tariff announcement, hawkish Fed concerns, quantum computing fears, and broader risk-off sentiment. The silver lining? On-chain data shows selling exhaustion, sentiment matches 2018/2022 bottoms, and "much of the bad news is already priced in." While $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ could fall further—currently down 54% versus 77-86% in past cycles—Hougan believes crypto's maturity makes extreme drawdowns less likely.

Hougan emphasizes that "bear markets end in exhaustion, not excitement," comparing today to 2018 and 2022's incredible buying opportunities (2,000% and 300% gains respectively). Recovery catalysts include the CLARITY Act, renewed risk appetite, quantum solutions, rate cuts, and AI-crypto breakthroughs—but typically it's just time and patience. He concludes that all the positive fundamentals (regulatory progress, stablecoin growth, tokenization, Wall Street adoption) remain intact for long-term investors willing to wait out the storm.

Treasury Secretary Bessent: US Won't Rescue Bitcoin by Requiring Banks to Purchase More

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before Congress that the US government will not "bail out" $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ during market downturns by requiring private banks to purchase more of the asset. He emphasized that neither the Treasury Department nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council has such authority. Bessent also revealed that the US government's Bitcoin holdings, obtained through asset forfeitures initially valued at $500 million, have appreciated to over $15 billion. According to the 2025 executive order signed by Trump, the US can only increase its strategic reserve through asset forfeitures or budget-neutral strategies (such as converting oil or precious metals to Bitcoin), not through open market purchases.

Michael Burry, 'The Big Short' Investor, Warns: Bitcoin's 2026 Crash Mirrors 2022 Playbook

On Thursday, February 5, Michael Burry—famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis in "The Big Short"—posted a Bitcoin price comparison chart on X with just the caption "Bitcoin pattern," showing striking similarities between the current decline and the 2021-2022 crash cycle.

The pattern comparison is sobering: The 2021-2022 cycle saw Bitcoin peak at $69,000 before bottoming at $15,500, a 77% decline. The current cycle peaked at approximately $126,000 in October 2025 and has declined about 49% to $64,000 levels. If the pattern repeats proportionally, Bitcoin could test the $45,000-$55,000 range or even below $50,000.

Burry also warns that incorporating Bitcoin into corporate treasuries creates unprecedented systemic risk—"there is no permanence to treasury assets" as they must be marked to market. With Strategy Inc. facing Q4 losses of $12.4 billion, Burry cautioned that if Bitcoin drops another 10%, the company would "find capital markets essentially closed," potentially triggering chain reactions across the ecosystem. This represents a structural vulnerability entirely absent in previous cycles when corporate adoption was minimal.

Deutsche Bank Suggests: Market Structure Has Evolved; The early 2026 BTC crash is different than the 2022-Style Collapse

Deutsche Bank analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price decline reflects fading market confidence and institutional outflows rather than a fundamental collapse of market structure. The report points to weakened institutional demand, reduced regulatory momentum, and diminished liquidity as key factors. Analysts describe the current downturn as a market reset rather than a structural breakdown, though outcomes remain dependent on broader investor sentiment and macro conditions.

Bernstein Research Forecasts: Bitcoin Could Bottom Around $60,000, Recovery Expected in H1 2026

Bernstein Research has suggested that Bitcoin’s recent downturn may reflect a temporary correction and a loss of investor confidence rather than a fundamental market breakdown, with analysts indicating a possible bottom in the $60,000 area and a potential reversal within the first half of 2026. They also highlight differences from past cycles, including ongoing institutional participation and ETF flows, and have reiterated a longer-term price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.

Analysts Warn: Bitcoin's $60K Recovery Shows Support But Traders Should Stay Cautious

On Friday morning, February 6, during Asian market hours, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ touched a low of $60,033 before rapidly rebounding to $65,926, demonstrating extreme volatility. Other tokens like Solana exhibited similar V-shaped patterns, crashing over 14% before completely recovering losses within hours. Damien Loh from Ericsenz Capital noted that while the rebound from $60,000 indicates "strong support" at that level, continued cautious market sentiment means traders should not "expect a swift, powerful rebound rally." Rachael Lucas from BTC Markets warned that "almost no one is willing to rashly enter the market" during liquidation-driven sell-offs.

Crypto Stock Focus

Strategy Inc. - Reports $12.4B Quarterly Loss

$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ released Q4 2025 earnings showing a net loss of $12.4 billion, primarily due to mark-to-market losses on its massive Bitcoin holdings. As of February 1, 2026, the company holds 713,502 BTC at a total cost of $54.26 billion, with an average cost basis of approximately $76,052 per Bitcoin. The company currently faces unrealized losses of approximately $4.3 billion at current prices around $70,000. Despite massive paper losses, CEO Phong Le stated that Bitcoin would need to fall to $8,000 and remain at that level for five to six years to pose a real threat to debt repayment. Chairman Michael Saylor announced plans to launch a Bitcoin security initiative addressing quantum computing threats and posted "HODL" on social media, reaffirming the company's commitment to its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Robinhood - Strong Q4 Earnings Expected on February 10

$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ is set to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after market close on February 10. The trading platform delivered exceptional performance in the first nine months of 2025, with trading activity surging across all asset classes amid heightened market volatility. 2025 Q3 revenue jumped ~100% year-over-year, driven by the overall transactions-based revenus and the net interest revenues, a sharp rise in Gold membership subscriptions, and increased monthly active users (MAU). For Q4, analysts project revenue of $1.35 billion, representing ~33% year-over-year growth, with expectations that the strong momentum has continued through year-end. The anticipated results reflect strong growth in transaction-based revenues across multiple asset classes, positioning Robinhood to benefit from elevated trading volumes in multiple asset markets.

Coinbase - Quarterly Earnings Expected to Decline Year-Over-Year

$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ is scheduled to release its 2025 Q4 earnings on February 12, with market expectations pointing to both revenue and profit declines. Earnings per share are forecasted at $1.15, down 66.1% compared to the same period last year, while revenue is projected at ~$1.9 billion, reflecting an 18.8% drop year-over-year. The anticipated decline comes as crypto trading volumes have moderated from 2024 peaks and Bitcoin prices have experienced significant volatility. The results will offer crucial insights into how the leading U.S. crypto exchange is navigating the current market downturn and whether subscription and services revenue can offset reduced trading activity.

IREN - Mining Company Swings to Net Loss Amid Bitcoin Price Pressure

$IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $184.7 million, down 23% from the prior quarter due to lower Bitcoin mining revenue. The company swung to a net loss of $155.4 million compared to net profit of $384.6 million in Q1. The dramatic reversal reflects the severe pressure Bitcoin mining operations face from declining cryptocurrency prices while operational costs remain elevated. Mining sector profitability has compressed significantly as Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from October peaks while network difficulty remains high, forcing miners to diversify revenue sources toward AI-related data center businesses to maintain financial viability.