Crypto Weekly Digest | Bitcoin Pushed to $80K; Stablecoin Bill Compromise Advances; Securitize Targets $70T Equity Market

Market Summary

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ surged over $80,000 today as institutional flows strengthened. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a $630 million single-day inflow on 2 May, the highest in recent weeks.

$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ fell slightly during last week to $2,370, underperforming bitcoin as the market digested mixed signals.

Fear & Greed Index stands at 44, indicating neutral sentiment as investors balance institutional inflows against regulatory uncertainty.

What Moves Markets Next?

Senate Banking Committee Eyes Mid-May Markup as Stablecoin Yield Compromise Clears Banking Lobby Concerns

Senator Tillis says the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has 'addressed a lot of concerns,' with markup possibly in mid-May. Compromise text bans passive stablecoin yield but carves out activity-based rewards. The bill still faces ethics and DeFi-related hurdles.

Why it matters: A mid-May markup could position the bill for a Senate floor vote before midterms, potentially creating the first comprehensive U.S. stablecoin framework as the sector nears $200 billion market cap.

Roundhill's May 5 Prediction Market ETF Launch as Sector Volume Surges 300%

Prediction market volume hit $63.5 billion in 2025, up 300% YoY. Roundhill launches the first U.S. prediction market ETFs on May 5. The Senate unanimously banned members from prediction market trading.

Why it matters: Prediction markets are going mainstream. ETF wrappers will give traditional investors regulated access, poised to accelerate capital inflows into the rapidly growing sector.

Fed's June Rate Decision Looms Over Crypto

Market pricing currently shows approximately 30% odds of higher year-end rates, reflecting concerns about inflation rebound and labor market resilience. May employment report (released June 6) and May CPI data (June 11) will directly influence the Fed's June 18 rate decision. If inflation data surprises to the upside or the jobs market remains tight, the Fed may signal hawkish tilt, pushing rate hike expectations higher. Bitcoin and risk assets are highly sensitive to rate path, with BTC's 12% April gain partly driven by cooling March inflation data.

Why it matters: The Fed's policy trajectory is crypto's largest macro variable: a hawkish June signal could push bitcoin to retest $70,000 support, slowing institutional ETF inflows. Conversely, continued inflation cooling and dovish Fed stance would provide momentum for BTC to break $80,000. Current 30% year-end hike pricing reflects investor concerns about stagflation risks, directly impacting Ark Invest's projection of bitcoin reaching $730,000 by 2030. The interplay between employment strength and inflation persistence will determine whether institutional adoption accelerates or pauses through year-end.

Securitize-Computershare to Tokenize U.S. Equities

BlackRock-backed Securitize and Computershare are partnering to issue blockchain-based shares (ISTs) for public companies. Computershare acts as transfer agent for ~58% of S&P 500.

Why it matters: ISTs could enable 24/7 trading and instant settlement for traditional equities on-chain, blurring the line between DeFi and TradFi across a $70 trillion market.

Perspectives

Pantera's Morehead: AI Stocks 33% Overvalued, Bitcoin 43% Undervalued

Pantera CEO Dan Morehead called it 'the biggest divergence in history': AI stocks 33% above their 4-year log trend while bitcoin sits 43% below. He characterized AI as 'pretty fully priced' and crypto as 'incredibly cheap,' noting most institutions still have zero exposure.

Ark Invest Projects $16 Trillion Bitcoin Market Cap by 2030

Ark projects Bitcoin's market cap surging from $1.5 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030, implying $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ above $730,000. U.S. ETFs and public companies already hold 12% of total supply, up from 9% in 2023. Bitcoin is expected to capture 40% of gold's $24 trillion market value.

Blockstream's Back: Institutional Bitcoin Adoption via ETFs Requires 12-18 Months

Blockstream CEO Adam Back says institutional adoption via ETFs will take 12-18 months as fund managers slowly implement 2-4% portfolio allocations. New institutional flows from ETFs, sovereign funds, and bitcoin treasury companies will eventually overwhelm sellers and drive sustained appreciation.

Crypto Stock Focus

Strategy - First Monthly Gain in Nine Months at 33%

$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ posted a 33% April gain, ending an eight-month losing streak. The company raised $3.3 billion through $STRATEGY INC VAR RT SER A PERP STRETCH PREFERRED STK (STRC.US)$ preferred stock and made four bitcoin purchases totaling $4.13 billion, bringing holdings to ~818,000 BTC. $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ remains down over 60% from peak levels.

Riot Platforms - AMD Data Center Deal Doubles to 50MW, Stock Surged

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ doubled contracted capacity to 50MW at Riot's Rockdale campus, potentially generating ~$636 million over 10 years. Data center revenue reached 20% of total Q1 revenue while bitcoin mining revenue fell 22% YoY. $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ also lowered its $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ credit facility rate from 8.3% to 6.15%.

Robinhood - Q1 Crypto Revenue Plunges 47%, Stock Plunged

$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ plunged after a 47% YoY decline in Q1 crypto revenue, dragging down $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ and others. KBW cut its price target to $65. However, Ark Invest purchased $39.7 million in shares post-earnings, and Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating with a $110 target.

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