English
Back
Download
Need Help?
Log in to access Online Inquiry
Back to the Top
Bitcoin volatile: Macro pressure shaping short-term moves?
Views 55.9M Contents 3221

Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?

avatar
ImSteven joined discussion · Dec 3, 2025 03:17
I'm Steven. Today's topic comes back to Crypto and Crypto-related Stocks.
Yet first of all, let's take a soul-searching question before we begin: Do you think the crypto sell-off is over?
In our previous note - Panic or Opportunity? Using COIN and MSTR Options to Trade Crypto's Crash, we argued that after the 2022 crypto crisis, Bitcoin’s price behaviour has become more stable. Absent a new “crypto meltdown” or a major fundamental break, a normal technical pullback tends to fall in the 25%–35% range. We also cited three post-2022 drawdowns to support that pattern.
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
In fact, the recent low at 80,600 versus the prior high at 126,199 implies a 36% drawdown—right on cue.
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
After a deep sell-off and the first rebound, it’s common to see a second bottom: bears press again to test where bulls will defend, while bulls often step back after the initial bounce to see if the selling wave continues. Only after that second test—when both sides “find the line”—does a new, sustained uptrend tend to form.
For now, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ , $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ , $Solana (SOL.CC)$ , and $Binance Coin (BNB.CC)$ —the four “Mag-Coins” —have reclaimed the 20-day moving average (MA20), which suggests the crash phase may be cooling off. Some forums are still hoping for a further “crypto disaster” or a “long winter,” but isn’t -36% already pretty wintery?
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
As the crypto “polar anticyclone” fades, a thaw in crypto and crypto-related stocks may not be far behind.
Coinbase (COIN)
From a fundamentals perspective, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ doesn’t look expensive. Based on current Street consensus, next year’s total revenue is expected to be around $8.5–$9.0B. With a market cap near $70B, that implies a P/S of ~7.8–8.2x—reasonable given COIN’s growth optionality. Back in July, when the stock peaked around $444, the implied P/S on 2025 revenues was as high as ~16x.
If we assume next year’s peak multiple doesn’t return to 16x, but tops out at ~12x, and we use $9.0B revenue, a simple target price would be roughly $405. (Below the 2025 high—our assumptions are intentionally conservative , —also a prove that July's high likely carried some valuation froth.)
Options ideas
(1) Short put
If you want to boost cash yield while the stock is still consolidating and not necessarily ripping higher immediately, consider selling puts with 3–4 months to expiry, strikes about 20%–30% below spot. A practical management rule is to close after capturing ~50% of the premium.
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
(2) LEAPS call
If you like the upside over the next year but don’t want to hold much stock, consider deep-in-the-money (LEAPS calls) with 9–12 months to expiry and strikes roughly ~20% below spot. Keep in mind: COIN’s IV isn’t low, so even with a ~20% ITM strike, the option can still carry $30+ of time value (roughly ~30%).
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
Robinhood (HOOD)
$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ ’s growth narrative is cleaner and more straightforward than COIN’s. First, inclusion in the S&P 500 on Sep 22 helped bring in passive flows and upgraded the stock’s “institutional recognition.” Second, its push in Europe into tokenized equities and other crypto products is seen as a medium-to-long-term growth driver. Besides, crypto M&A and global expansion (e.g., Bitstamp) are also viewed as strategic levers.
More recently, Robinhood announced an expansion into prediction markets, through a JV structure with Susquehanna. It also involves acquiring a crypto derivatives exchange asset, with an expected 2026 launch. A final pillar is Gold (subscriptions)—user growth and a more diversified revenue mix reinforce the “from trading app to full-spectrum financial platform” re-rating story.
Street expectations for next year’s revenue are broadly $5.4–$5.6B. On the current market cap, that’s roughly ~20x P/S—on the rich side, but not extreme given Robinhood’s tech multiple profile and its cross-asset growth runway (stocks, options, crypto).
Options idea
(1) “Income” short put
If you’re primarily harvesting premium rather than trying to take delivery, consider 4–6 months to expiry, with strikes 30%+ below spot.
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
(2) “Take-delivery” short put
If your goal is to potentially buy shares on a pullback, use strikes closer to spot—about 10%–15% below—and keep the term shorter, typically ≤ 3 months. For this approach, you should reserve sufficient cash in advance; otherwise a sell-off can trigger margin pressure or forced position reduction.
Crypto: Second Bottom and Rebound — Entry Timing for HOOD and COIN?
Strategy (MSTR)
We covered $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ in our previous note; the framework remains unchanged—please refer back to that piece.
One point worth emphasizing: after the sharp, persistent slide in the second half of the year, MSTR’s “crypto reserve” strategy has been stress-tested. Even if the stock rebounds, it may not return to its prior “glory days.” Valuationally speaking, the era of trading at >3x market cap versus underlying BTC value is likely difficult to sustain.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
3
46
1
1
1
1
+0
11
Translate
Report
522K Views
Comment
Sign in to post a comment

View more comments...

avatar
ImSteven
3770
Followers
54
Following
6207
Visitors
Follow