The First Crypto IPO of 2026: Backed by Founders Fund, the "Crypto Czar," and Trump. Can BitGo (BTGO) replicate Circle's 3x run? ๐
$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ is about to go public, backed by Peter Thielโs Founders Fund, the newly appointed "Crypto Czar," and a strategic partnership with Trumpโs USD1 project.
Iโve done a deep dive into this IPO, and my conclusion is: Itโs a Buy. (Note: Moomoo subscription closes in about a week).
The Core Logic: Why I'm Bullish
1๏ธโฃ The valuation is reasonable
The P/S ratio stands at 3.5x compared to the industry average of 8x+. It is listing almost flat relative to its last private funding round, meaning it's essentially priced at par with its private market value.
2๏ธโฃ Wall Street & Heavyweight Backing
The investor lineup is stacked. Series A included Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, and Series B saw participation from David Sacks (current US AI & Crypto Czar) and Goldman Sachs. Crucially, Goldman Sachs acts as both a Series B investor and the lead underwriterโa dual role that typically incentivizes them to provide strong price support.
3๏ธโฃ Regulatory moat
$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ holds a US Trust Bank charter and has achieved EU MiCA compliance. This regulatory status creates a massive safety moat, making it the preferred partner for risk-averse institutional clients.
4๏ธโฃ Trump-related stock
Directly benefiting from political tailwinds, $BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ serves as the custodian for Trumpโs WLFI project stablecoin (USD1). This partnership anchors their new Stablecoin-as-a-Service offering, a key growth driver for 2025.
5๏ธโฃ Founders are hands-on, with a stable executive team
The founders remain hands-on in daily operations, leading a core executive team that has shown long-term stability through multiple crypto cycles.
The Risks (Don't ignore these)
โ Average Revenue Quality - 96% is transaction-based revenue, Staking revenue is declining
โ Custodial assets are concentrated - BTC 48.5% + Sui 20%.
โ Governance Structure - CEO controls 55.5% of voting rights with 7.7% equity
โ Intensified competition - Both traditional banks and emerging custodians are entering the market
Detailed Analysis
I. IPO Basic Information
Note: There is a "Green Shoe" option, allowing underwriters to purchase an additional 1.77 million shares at a certain price floor, which helps stabilize the stock post-listing.
2. The Business Reality: The Real Revenue Picture
$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ , founded in Silicon Valley in 2013, is a digital asset custody and infrastructure service provider for institutions.
Core Business:
- Custody Services (Qualified Custody)
- Digital Wallet Technology (Self-Custody Wallet)
- Liquidity Services (Staking, Trading, Settlement)
- Stablecoin-as-a-Service (Newly launched in 2025)
- WBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin) Custodian
Revenue Structure Breakdown
BitGo projects $16B in total revenue for 2025, but this figure is highly misleading.
Profitability Reality Check:
The net profit of $165M looks great on paper, but most of it comes from the appreciation of digital assets held on the balance sheet. Actual operating profit is only ~$3-4M.
This explains why the P/S ratio is a humble 3.5x instead of Coinbase's 8.9x.
III. Why Itโs Worth Paying Attention To (The Alpha)
Although the revenue quality is average, BitGo has four "hardcore" advantages:
1. Endorsement from Wall Street heavyweights
The investor list holds some surprises:
โ Peter Thiel (Founders Fund) - Series A investor
โ David Sacks (Craft Ventures) - Participated in Series B and served as a board member
โ Antonio Gracias (Tesla/SpaceX board member) - led Series A and joined BitGo's board
โ Goldman Sachs - both a Series B investor and the lead underwriter
When lead underwriters hold shares themselves, they tend to work harder to support the stock price. More importantly, a total of 14 underwriters participated in this dealโquite rare for an IPO sized at $189 million. Wall Street is pushing this hard.
Total funding reached $170 million. The Series C (2023) valuation was $1.75 billion, and this IPO valuation is $1.9 billionโonly a 6-12% premium. It's listing nearly at par.
2. Regulatory Moat
- Upgrade to Bank of America license in 2024
- EU MiCA Compliance
- Safe choice for institutional clients = Long-term competitive advantage
Traditional banks are entering the market, but compliance barriers and technical accumulation cannot be caught up within a year or two.
3. The Trump Play
BitGo is the custodian for Trumpโs WLFI project stablecoin (USD1), providing reserve custody and minting/burning infrastructure. Trump's pro-crypto policies directly benefit infrastructure providers like BitGo.
4. Undervalued Metrics
Checking the latest comparable company valuations (as of January 14, 2026):
Even if you strip out the pass-through effects and base the P/S on the "high-quality" revenue of $500-550M, it is still clearly undervalued compared to peers.
4. The Team: Founders Leading the Charge
Mike Belshe - CEO/CTO/President, former Google Chrome engineer
Ben Davenport - Co-founder, former co-founder of Facebook Messenger
The duo has been working together for 12 years, transitioning from "building internet protocols" to "building crypto banking infrastructure."
Both the CFO and COO have been in their roles for 4-5 years, indicating a stable team.
Flag: It is important to note the Extreme Voting Structure: The CEO controls 55.5% of voting rights with only 7.7% economic interest.
V. The Play: IPO Subscription Strategy
Considering the limited downside and the potential for a sentiment-driven run, here is my plan.
I will participate in the subscription with a target of 30-50% gains in the first week.
- Pricing within the $15-17 range is acceptable
- Focus on the first-day market sentiment and overall crypto market trend
- If it opens with a 40%+ surge, consider taking partial profits
- Long-term holding value is moderate; more suitable for IPO trading
Timeline:
โ Reminder: Futu US (Moomoo US) subscription still has one week remaining
- Expected pricing on 1/21 (Wednesday) evening, with the first trading day on 1/22 (Thursday)
VI. Conclusion
$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ isn't an exciting hyper-growth story, but it offers a solid combination: Reasonable Valuation + Establishment Backing + Policy Tailwinds.
As the first crypto stock in the big IPO year of 2026, it benefits from both a sentiment premium and scarcity. It's a buy for me.
Let's do a quick survey: will you participate in the $BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$ IPO? Let's discuss in the comments.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and IPOs are highly volatile; please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Kay McCullough : 3.5x P/S vs. 8x+ sector average, Goldman backing, and USD1 custody gigโBTGO.US IPO is a no-brainer for short-term plays.
Theressa Perico : CEO controls 55.5% voting power? Yikes, thatโs a sketchy red flag. But low premium + crypto IPO scarcity? Might still dip a toe in.
Aimee Shackleton : BTGO.US: cheap valuation + big backers = easy W