$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ look at that decline going into the clo...
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ look at that decline going into the close. I was driving and I missed it.. I probably would have run off the road if I saw it happening in real time. and then look at that giant Spike at the end it's not like any news came out from the company that would have been negative there's nothing that's due anytime soon it's not earnings nothing like that so I think... and maybe I'm wrong .. you've got some big giant institution that got their ass kicked in this stock and once it off their books this is what I think is the beginning of window dressing season.
for those that don't know what that is typically money managers lag the S&P 500 that's just what they do most of them suck. but most clients most investors of mutual funds are not degenerates like everybody reading this including myself they don't live for investing and trading it becomes part of what they put away for the future. so when the annual report year end report comes out the companies that were up the most they want to buy them just to show that they own them for that quarter despite the fact that they never participated in the rally. and when you flip the script the stocks that got crushed and coinbase sank they don't want to show they owned it so they want to clear the books has nothing to do with fundamentals of the company and it has everything to do with they want to keep their job they want to keep the money at the institution that they manage the account for and maybe it's their own account maybe it's their own name on the mutual fund company.. you know like Arc funds Cathie Woods that type of thing.. but it could be one of vanguard's funds or Fidelity's funds or any of the other 100 200 mutual fund companies that are out there that bought this significantly higher they got their ass creamed and they don't want to show shareholders the top 10 Holdings and this was a huge loser for the quarter so they sell it everything.
I think that's maybe probably possibly???? what's going on with this huge sale at the end of the day
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37+ yrs in the trenches, raised 100mil for start ups, syndicate ipo's, yrs on trading desk
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无知无畏的投机徒 : It is indeed at the one-minute level, but the trading volume on the 10-minute K-line has not significantly increased, nor has the daily trading volume. Moreover, the market is up today, so it should not trigger an algorithmic automatic sell-off. I believe the daily trading volume is what makes sense, so I am not worried. What bothers me is that it follows declines but not gains. Logically speaking, given how much BTC has risen, a 10%+ surge would be entirely reasonable.
sooogod 无知无畏的投机徒 : I share the same sentiment. What is the reason for not following the upward trend? And what is the logic behind following the upward trend?
无知无畏的投机徒 sooogod : I don’t understand. On the contrary, I feel it should rise rather than fall. It is a platform that, in principle, only cares about whether there are transactions and the trading volume, not about rises or falls, similar to a brokerage platform. In terms of its tech attributes, a P/E ratio of 22 times is reasonable and relatively low. Just look at HOOD’s multiples. I really don’t know what the reason is.
10baggerbamm OP 无知无畏的投机徒 : the stock should have a big cycle coming.. we've got lowering rates coming up this year that's happening with a new fed it's May it's 6 months away which is a lifetime if you're a short-term trader but the market price is forward and we should be handily into rally mode going into the appointment of the new Fed chair. you also have quantitative easing and generally speaking when you have QE money is injected into the system higher risk assets tend to perform better.. combined with real estate lending companies like regional Banks direct lenders you can't really go back in history and look at crypto over these types of cycles but it should benefit crypto across the board.. coinbase is an exchange and if you look at the largest banks in the United States that are now going to be doing business with coinbase over this past 6 months they made the announcement that never happened in the past so that's value-added that should only help them from transactional processing if you look at stable coin 50% from circle is going into coinbase. the stock should get back above $400 and of course when it crosses that threshold that's when everybody starts talking about 500 $600 all-time highs again.. obviously this is a bigger picture than a day today price movement... the putting a big picture to it it should have another big cycle this up and coming year it's a better company today than where it was at the beginning of the year. I think the only near-term hurdle that we have to deal with is going to be the supreme Court decision on President Trump's ability to impose tariffs. I think that's why you have to carry a pretty good amount of cash in your account right now because we could have another massive move down very sharply across the board in every sector and you're going to want to use that as an opportunity to get invested in the companies that are going to benefit from what I think is going to be a big real estate push over the next year to 2 years so that's your regional banks are going to benefit from it that your home builders everybody knows the ETFs I'm talking about and coinbase leverage ETF I think is going to be making a big big push once we get past a supreme Court decision. and if you look at the cycles in coinbase they're not two weeks 3 weeks they're very long cycles so you have plenty of time to accumulate the stock even if you get a $15 move up one day or $20 move up one day it's going to have a few dollars of profit taking in the coming days and you use that to accumulate..
so I have no idea what that huge sale was at the end of the day somebody wanted out real fast as long as we don't see anything like the CFO getting carted out in handcuffs or the CEO quitting I think looking at this company from a big picture is going to make you a lot of money to something come in here especially the leverage ETF.. but then again this is just my opinion I've been buying on weakness and I've got a huge cash position right now in my account as my hedge in the event that we get the supreme Court that overturns president Trump you got to figure out what you're going to do
Jackpot 100 无知无畏的投机徒 : The defendant was brought to court and faced a lawsuit.
Leonidas21 : Good morning Baggerbamm, I wanted to hold on to some leveraged etfs for example SMUP, for about 6 months. I dont care about what people say about the decay and all the negative stuff. Just wanted your opinion if you thought it'd be alright, hence id rather do that than trying to do options
10baggerbamm OP Leonidas21 : I've held leverage ETS for over a year and when they're going up you don't notice the decay if the underlying stock particularly on an individual company more so than an index so if the underlying stock just flat lines then what you will notice is on a rally if you were to play connect the dots where the ETF rally to last time versus this time you're going to notice a slight difference.
for example if you had a ETF for a stock that was leveraged that was $40 and it fell to 20
and maybe the underlying stock was 80 and it fell to 60 that caused that drop in the leveraged ETF. the stock just trade sideways for four or five months at 60 and sometimes that's what happens after you get a market event where something becomes out of favor and you need good news to accumulate before money returns to that sector or that stock.. next time the stock would rally those 20 points so the underlying stock goes back to where it was before it collapsed. your ETF is not going to be where it was months back it will be a little less and that's your decay. how much less could it be will this is where management fees come into play and the derivatives that they use to create that leverage I personally and this is just my opinion.. I'm more interested in an ETF that has weekly options over monthly options or no options at all in that order and I could care less who the administrator of that leverage ETF is I don't care if they take an extra 1% because 1% is not going to make or break an investment and the ability to sell puts and sell calls more than offsets a 1% or even a 2% difference if management fees and expenses for operation are greater..
so I disclosed to everybody I got put a lot of SMR through the leverage ETFs and I made a lot of money all year long trading them and investing in them and selling calls and selling puts and I went back to the well one too many times and I drank the poison water and you know now I got put positions that are significantly higher than the current price.. again I run a p&l I'm still way up but as I've said I only view myself like a pitcher in a baseball game and it's what are you doing right now what you did last year or 6 months ago is irrelevant.. so for right now I'm holding these leveraged ETFs I'm not selling calls against them because if the stock moves up $2 then I'm going to realize the loss is on The leverage ETFs they'll move up substantially through the strike price that I would have sold the calls and I'm not doing that so this becomes what I call a non-performing asset in my account or in other words dead money.. between now and the end of the year I'm going to do something with several positions cuz I've got a few duds in my account that are these non-performing assets and I've got big capital gains taxes to pay so I'm going to have to make a decision do I want to hit the sell button and realize the capital loss in order to offset my taxes but now I'm out of that stock for 61 days.. I can't buy it back I can't buy that ETF back so that's what I'm going to have to try to decide because 90 days 3 months and this stock market is a huge monumental swing and all you have to do is look what happened to Google stock Apple stock look what's happened to these nuclear stocks from where they were to where they peed in 90 days.. so that's my dilemma because once they start to move again if you're not in them you're going to miss out
10baggerbamm OP Leonidas21 : I wanted to split my response up into two sections because I can be a little long-winded and then if I talk too much I have to take a screenshot and then post the image.
so the long and the short is we have one big hurdle to overcome and I've said this before and this is why I'm holding quite a bit of cash and that's the supreme Court decision
I think if the supreme Court upholds president Trump you are going to see money come back into these sectors that have been crushed if the supreme Court overturns it I think the whole Market is going to get whacked and the higher beta are really going to get hit hard and I think this company in particular it'll retest the low where it just was in the past couple of weeks and you'll see oklo nne also retest their lows and probably put in new lows.
if that were to happen I probably would sell this leverage ETF that I'm in especially if that decision comes out before the end of this calendar year because I think it will depress a lot of companies until the new course of action by President Trump is outlined and new tariff deals are renegotiated and as we've seen you know we're 11 months into this right now and there's still many countries that don't have tariff deals..
so that's my thoughts on this issue I haven't obviously average down just so you understand that on this company it's either going to work or it's not going to work it's either going to retest the highs whether it's 6 months down the road or a year down the road or it's not going to.. so for right now I'm not going to commit more money and average down that being said if they start announcing deals and contracts with Nations or companies to build small modular reactors I may average down
Leonidas21 : Thanks again for always giving your in depth thoughts. Im still trying to learn all the ins and outs of this thats why I go to your page on a daily, wether they want to delete your posts or not, your just the only one not BULLSHTNGG, and people always try to quiet the ones with the transparency or truth. Thank you and have a great day.
By the way, is that a Corso on the pic?
10baggerbamm OP Leonidas21 : it's a black English lab.. my boy passed and there's not a day that goes by that I don't miss him.
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