Chart Analysis (Law of Supply and Demand)

This is the series that shows.

Since I was able to execute a good trade yesterday, I will explain the pattern.

This is a recovery pattern following a post-IPO decline.

Kasumigaseki Capital 2019―A, B
Kasumigaseki Capital 2019―C, D, F
Chime (CHYM) 2025
Gemini (GEMI) 2025

All of these fall within the realm of pattern recognition.

Typically, after prices rise, they fall. This is a normal supply and demand situation and is something that naturally occurs.

However, after prices rise,

・They do not fully retrace.
・They tighten (over 3 to 5 days).
・Trading volume decreases.

When this happens, what kind of supply and demand situation is occurring?

Answer: There are no more sellers left. It’s a situation where the last of the selling pressure has been squeezed out, with some forces supporting the price from below.
In this situation, if strong buying demand emerges, there will be no sellers left, resulting in a sudden surge.

To form this tightening pattern (3-5 days), selling pressure must be eliminated.
Weaker sellers must be shaken out.

✅First time

As a result, even though there is an initial price spike due to positive news, because the supply-demand situation is still normal at that time, it frequently happens that prices fall again after rising temporarily. This leads to weaker buyers being shaken out.

✅Second time

Afterward, when prices rise once more, they may decline slightly, but since weaker buyers have already exited, a tightening phase (lasting 3 to 5 days) tends to form.

✅Hindsight bias

A frequently observed hindsight bias on message boards includes comments such as, 'Wow, I just sold recently; if I had held on, I would have doubled my money.' However, from my perspective,

They lack pattern recognition.
Being weak buyers, they tend to react emotionally, selling either out of fear during a downturn or to secure unrealized profits.

This selling behavior is a natural reaction.
Engaging in trading driven by emotions can lead to such actions.

✅When such buyers exist,

Even if prices gap up and rise, once they start falling, these buyers tend to sell off quickly, creating a chain reaction of panic selling."Round trip"occurs.

If that happens, the hard-earned accumulation by major players would lose its meaning for several months, leaving only those with unrealized losses from a sudden spike and worsening supply-demand conditions reflected in the chart. This could lead to a dire situation. Therefore, it is said that before a surge in buying, the entities behind accumulation may deliberately trigger a final test of selling pressure — a last shakeout. (However, I do not fully believe in this theory.)

The images I posted this time illustrate cases without shakeouts, but another frequently observed pattern is...

Cases where shakeouts occur.

There are also cases where the chart shows a tightening box pattern, forming a lower shadow just before signaling a pivot (reversal). Because it appears as if the price might break below the box, traders often get caught by stop-loss orders.

However, if there is or can be assumed a strong reason to buy, it might be effective to deliberately observe the situation for a day or two.
Of course, being cautious about a breakout below the box from a risk management perspective by using stop-loss orders is also a correct approach.

I am not a wizard.
Everything operates within the realm of logic.

A sharp rise in stock prices is a rare phenomenon that occurs when supply and demand become imbalanced, akin to a physical event triggered under such conditions.
The exit of weak sellers, reduction of floating shares due to accumulation, and emergence of strong buying demand...

If one can understand that it is bound to happen according to the law of supply and demand, the next step is simply to seek high-quality setups that meet the criteria and repeatedly engage in trades with positive expected value. As long as risk management is properly executed, this approach will allow for asset growth.

In a typical year, I execute around 70 successful trades. While winning is common, so is stopping losses at about twice the rate of wins. This is possible because I have a routine for identifying high-expected-value opportunities, a process for inspecting the quality of setups, and a well-established 'system' (a trading factory).

Stop-losses that are twice the size.
Setups that, upon inspection of their quality, fall under Tier 2 or Tier 3 rather than Tier 1.

Since I don’t post about these, it may appear on the forum that I’m constantly winning, but behind the scenes, I am struggling just like everyone else.
In this regard, I believe forums give a misleading impression and can be harmful.

The reality I observe on online forums is that, despite such a favorable environment, most people are not winning, and 70-80% are losing. This statistic comes from live interviews with over ten motivated individuals, so I believe the actual results may be even worse.

Ultimately, I view platforms combining smartphones, social media, and securities trading as gambling arenas luring individuals drawn by marketing messages like 'housewives earning millions through FX trading.' Naturally, most participants lose, and my observations continue to support this conclusion.

My message is simple: posts boasting huge profits are typically either fake or simply the result of luck, so you should ignore them.
Struggle unseen beneath the surface. As a result, you might statistically hit a win through repeated trials.

Winning trades are not something you actively aim for; they are merely part of the statistical trials you undertake.
Successful trades emerge from the remnants of failed ones.

Even after dedicating as much effort as I have, only one-third is actionable, and I feel unsettled about the two-thirds that remain unmanageable.
However, in reality, it seems some people are making purchases based on my posts, so I find myself unable to fully disclose everything, which has led to a deadlock.

Despite the deadlock, I still proceeded with 'Step 1: Demonstrate' today.
I will continue doing this for a little while longer before the end of the year.