In 2024, Bitcoin's price soared from around $40,000 at the beginning of the year, breaking through $80,000 and $90,000 in November, and surpassing the $100,000 mark in December. The annual increase reached an impressive 120%.
Looking ahead to 2025, as President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20, seismic shifts are expected in the digital asset space. The feasibility and timing of Trump's proposed crypto-friendly policies will be crucial variables.
Key promises and an unprecedentedly friendly regulatory environment
•Establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve
In July, then Republican candidate Donald Trump promised to create a "strategic national bitcoin reserve" and predicted bitcoin could eclipse gold's $16 trillion market capitalization during an appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
•Preventing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
Trump has pledged to stop any efforts toward establishing a US CBDC, aligning with privacy advocates who view government-controlled digital currencies as a threat to personal financial freedom.
•Dominate Bitcoin mining
Trump wants “all remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA,” signaling strong support for domestic Bitcoin mining. From Trump’s perspective, Bitcoin miners can help America stay “energy dominant.”
•Establishing a Bitcoin and crypto advisory council
Trump plans to create a Bitcoin and crypto advisory council in his first 100 days if elected. This council of pro-digital asset experts would develop a clear regulatory framework to encourage industry growth and innovation.
•The president-elect’s crypto policy team is already extensive
Under Trump's proposed administration:
Paul Atkins, crypto-friendly, to chair SEC
David Sacks, crypto enthusiast, as "AI and crypto czar"
Stephen Miran, crypto regulation critic, to lead Council of Economic Advisers
Howard Lutnick, Tether stakeholder, as commerce secretary
Scott Bessent, crypto supporter, as Treasury secretary
•The Most Pro-Crypto US Congress
The upcoming legislative session may provide regulatory clarity for the crypto industry in the US. Recent election results suggest public dissatisfaction with the current financial system. A bipartisan pro-crypto majority in Congress could turn US regulation into a positive factor for crypto performance in 2025, rather than a hindrance.
Source: Coinbase
The strategic Bitcoin reserve will be the biggest variable
Trump promised to create a "strategic national stockpile" of bitcoin if elected. The U.S. currently holds about 200,000 bitcoins worth $19 billion.
Some in the crypto industry and lawmakers want to go further, proposing a strategic bitcoin reserve similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This would involve the government actively buying and selling bitcoin.
Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced legislation to create such a reserve, suggesting the U.S. buy 200,000 bitcoins annually for five years.
Proponents believe a stockpile would tie the U.S. to bitcoin's growth and potentially help pay down national debt.
However, challenges exist, such as legal constraints on what the Federal Reserve can hold.
Galaxy Research analyst Jianing Wu notes that competition among nation states, particularly those unaligned with major powers or those holding large sovereign wealth funds, will fuel strategies to mine or acquire Bitcoin.
Source: BitcoinTreasuries
Public companies and spot ETFs have become important sources of funding in the ecosystem.
On the company's side, the "BTC accumulation plan" has become a trend. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, " 2025 may be an important milestone for more companies to adopt the BTC standard."
We have seen multiple companies following MSTR's lead and adopting Bitcoin financial strategies, such as Semler Scientific, MARA Holdings, and many other publicly listed miners.
Source: BitcoinTreasuries
On the ETF's side, according to data disclosed by BitcoinNews, in 2024, gold ETFs saw net inflows of $454 million, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows of $36.8 billion, which is 81 times that of gold ETFs.
Analysts are optimistic about the prospects of U.S. Crypto ETFs. Bitwise estimates that BTC ETFs alone will attract $35 billion in capital inflows next year, accumulating over $70 billion in less than two years.
Source: heyapollo
Market Outlook for 2025
•Historical patterns suggest Q1 may show strong performance
Bitcoin exhibits strong cyclical utility. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has consistently shown impressive performance in the first quarter of the year following halving events. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2013, it rose by 539%; in 2021, it increased by 103%; and in 2017, it gained 12%.
The fourth halving is scheduled to occur on April 20, 2024. Consequently, the market is closely monitoring Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter of 2025.
•Optimists expect a rise to over $200,000
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, an asset management company focused on cryptocurrencies, believes that Bitcoin's price will be in the range of $80,000 to $150,000 in 2025.
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, another cryptocurrency-focused asset management firm, predicts that Bitcoin will break through $150,000 in the first half of this year and reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter.
On December 31, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted that the price of BTC would reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with continued accumulation by institutions and corporations being the core driving force.
Bernstein analysts have released ten predictions for the crypto industry in 2025, reaffirming their Bitcoin price target of $200,000. They also point out that the stablecoin market size will exceed $500 billion, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will surpass $70 billion, and the integration of crypto and artificial intelligence will further deepen.
Consider risks too
A recent review highlighted that as cryptocurrency becomes more integrated with traditional finance, a price collapse could lead to "stronger spillovers to traditional financial markets and contribute to systemic risk," potentially increasing vulnerabilities, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Bitcoin's performance this quarter may be influenced by the new administration's initial actions. A lack of early progress on campaign promises, particularly within the first 100 days, could potentially trigger a Bitcoin pullback, suggests John Glover, former Managing Director at Barclays Investment Bank.
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context, Show More
Moo Live
Jan 23 16:54
MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
Reassessing Chinese Assets
Following the introduction of China's groundbreaking DeepSeek technology, Wall Street giants have revised their investment outlooks for the Chinese market.
Buy n Die Together❤ :
BlessMoo : anyone wanna buy a pizza with a Bitcoin when it hits 500k?
102564541 :

Lucy_116 :