$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ how much will it rise on fed cut ??

Asuka アスカ : or dump maybe? It happened for the last two cuts

wyyghlp xx Asuka アスカ : The last time, it was due to the early consumption of rate cut expectations; this time, it is not.

Asuka アスカ wyyghlp xx : The probability of an interest rate cut has been above 80 for a while now; the jump from around 80k to 90k is an overreaction based on expectations.

wyyghlp xx Asuka アスカ : So do you really think the previous pre-emptive expectation and the current one are at the same level? Moreover, I don’t believe the rise from 80 to 90 this time is solely due to the Fed's interest rate cut. Instead, it’s more because all the negative factors have been priced in. Think carefully about it.

wyyghlp xx Asuka アスカ : Moreover, the probability of an interest rate cut is over 80%, and the last two times it was about 98%, right? (If I remember correctly.) Are you sure this is really the same situation? Therefore, I’m saying that if a rate cut is confirmed this time, it won’t lead to a pullback like the previous two instances; instead, it will rise.

Asuka アスカ wyyghlp xx : It is now above 90, and the market basically considers it a foregone conclusion. Generally, in such cases, the market would front-run, but as you mentioned, the rebound has been very weak. If the decision turns out to be a relatively hawkish rate cut, it will absolutely be disastrous. Make sure to manage your risks well since these are speculative assets.

wyyghlp xx Asuka アスカ : Indeed, I agree with your point. The key is to see whether the subsequent message from the rate cut will be hawkish or dovish.