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SOX Hits 17-Day Winning Streak. How Much Upside Is Left?
ExpectationGapss
joined discussion · Mar 31 14:31

Big Tech is underperforming the broader market at a faster clip.

Big Tech (MAGS) -15.9% YTD
Capex hit $37.5B in a single quarter. Gross margins dropped to 68% (3-year low). Free cash flow is under pressure. AI is scaling, but so are costs.
Infrastructure spending keeps accelerating. Legal risks are rising at the same time. Capital intensity + regulatory pressure = a more fragile margin outlook.
Missed operating profit expectations. Took $2.44B in special charges. Logistics + cloud capex continues to compress profitability.
AI exposure is strong. But the business still carries cyclical semiconductor risk. Any slowdown in AI spend could expose weaker legacy segments.
Capex expected to reach $175–185B in 2026. Free cash flow margins already dropped to 21%. Infrastructure costs are rising faster than monetization.
Still the core AI beneficiary. But expectations are extreme. Any execution miss could compress margins quickly.
Core hardware is slowing. Mac revenue down, wearables declining. AI narrative is weaker
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ -6.9% YTD Big Tech (MAGS) -15.9% YTD $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ -26.2% YTD Capex hit $37.5B in a single quarter. Gross margins dropped to 68% (3-year low). Free cash flow is under pressure. AI is scaling, but so are costs. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ -20.4% YTD Infrastructure spending keeps accelerating. Legal risks are rising at the same time. Capital intensity + regulatory pressure = a more fragile margin outloo...
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