$Better Home & Finance (BETR.US)$ the earnings are out the company had a decent quarter I tend to disagree with their forward commentary in the near term anyways I think the market right now is absolutely deadlocked in a bottle neck because of the war and because of the 10-year treasury spiking to almost 6.3 from 5.9 in a period of a week and a half
the war is going to create a significant amount of apprehension for people that want to buy a house they're going to sit on the sidelines they're not going to buy a house until we have clarity and resolution and that's because buying a house typically is an enormous undertaking for most people a creates a lot of anxiety and layout of stress and when you compound that with a war that's going on with uncertainty with stories at California's going to get bombed by drones 2 days ago there government was saying this and then they were candidate the next day when you have lack of clarity like that people sit still especially on major purchases they're going to slow down if not pause and halt these types of purchases
when you compound the movement of the 10-year where we went from a 5.90 30 year fixed rate to 6.25 and it'll probably be approaching 6.3 this up and coming week the people that want to refinance they're not going to they're going to say yields went up the yields will come back down and when they come down I'll revisit it so you're going to have probably a 50% reduction in people that were planning on refinancing hit the pause button until rates come down they may not worry about the war but they're not going to refinance at the current rate they'll wait until interest rates produce fix rate below the magical 6% level again.
this war right now minimum they're telling us it's 5 weeks and I think we're going to see substantially lower stock prices by the end of the war relative to the beginning of the war and I think when it comes to the mortgage industry it's basically screwed right now the home building industry is screwed lennar's earnings were horrible they were the worst this past year they gave lousy guidance and you look at the big picture unfortunately I own stocks in this space I own the home builders they're getting killed and this now best case scenario is a post-war new Federal reserve chairman sorry and it takes months for home builders to begin to resume an upward trend which means this is a dead sector and a dead space and I hate to say it but that's the truth it is a best case back half of this year's story and what that means it's another year that's been wasted in the space looking for a real estate cycle
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