Bear Hunting Diary: Bottom fishing triggered by VIX hitting 30, fierce words, peculiar operations // Technical analysis futile! Bearish sentiment overwhelms everything.
As of the U.S. stock market close, the VIX closed at 26.42, still within an awkward range that is neither high nor low. This range typically indicates that market panic has been triggered but has not yet reached the level of 'despair' (above 30). This suggests that the current market may not yet have hit the bottom of this downturn. This scenario bears resemblance to the periods from March to April 2025 and from August to October 2024.
In March, due to tariffs, both the U.S. stock market and $BTC declined together. By April, the panic caused by Sino-U.S. tariffs had escalated sharply, with Bitcoin’s lowest price dropping to $75,000. The rebound was attributed to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S.
In August 2024, the situation was primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which led to extremely poor liquidity—a condition highly similar to the present. At that time, the VIX surged past 50 and continued to fluctuate between 22 and 28. The rebound was triggered by Trump's presidential campaign announcement.
Up to now, these two structures appear similar, but they feel more akin to the situation in March. Initially, there was no direct rise above 30; however, as time triggered investor panic, it surged past 50. What we are likely facing this time could be the Fed's December monetary policy or the economic data for December.
If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December or if the economic data for December indicate a high probability of the U.S. entering a recession, it would mean that the VIX might enter the 30 or even 50 range for the third time, corresponding to a potential decline of 10% to 25%.
In response to this situation, I will slightly adjust my new bottom-fishing strategy. Instead of buying the dip based on price, I will do so according to the VIX data, which is estimated to be above 30.
In March, due to tariffs, both the U.S. stock market and $BTC declined together. By April, the panic caused by Sino-U.S. tariffs had escalated sharply, with Bitcoin’s lowest price dropping to $75,000. The rebound was attributed to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S.
In August 2024, the situation was primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which led to extremely poor liquidity—a condition highly similar to the present. At that time, the VIX surged past 50 and continued to fluctuate between 22 and 28. The rebound was triggered by Trump's presidential campaign announcement.
Up to now, these two structures appear similar, but they feel more akin to the situation in March. Initially, there was no direct rise above 30; however, as time triggered investor panic, it surged past 50. What we are likely facing this time could be the Fed's December monetary policy or the economic data for December.
If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December or if the economic data for December indicate a high probability of the U.S. entering a recession, it would mean that the VIX might enter the 30 or even 50 range for the third time, corresponding to a potential decline of 10% to 25%.
In response to this situation, I will slightly adjust my new bottom-fishing strategy. Instead of buying the dip based on price, I will do so according to the VIX data, which is estimated to be above 30.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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