Be alert: the high and low points of the band are constantly moving down
The last few bands of qqq (values are approximate, just judge the trend)
1. High 390, low 360
2. High 380, low 350
3. high 370, low???
According to the elementary school Olympics method, after that, 340 - 360 - 330 - 350![]()
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In fact, I definitely wouldn't go this way. But what we're looking at is the trend. Once the high point continues to move down and the low point continues to move down, then a bear market is here. So 350 is an extremely important position for qqq. If there is a break this time, the three complete downtrend bands will be completed. Once inertia is formed and then reversed, a new external stimulus is required.
The reversal at the beginning of this year relied on a series of incentives such as AI concepts, lower interest rates on 10-year treasury bonds, falling inflation, temporary water release due to the Silicon Valley Bank thunderstorm, and the return of international dollars. However, the fundamentals of the US economy have not improved. Instead, the AI craze is cooling down, interest rates are higher, the shadow of war, concerns about a rebound in inflation, the number of bankrupt companies has caught up with 2020, layoffs in non-tech companies, and the labor force has changed from full time to part time. The only positive factor at the beginning of the year was the return of the US dollar (so other countries' stock markets are worse).
Inside big technology, $Tesla(TSLA.US$ I knelt down, $Netflix(NFLX.US$ It's not bad, but the two aren't the same level of consumption. Even though I can't afford a car anymore, I still have to finish at least this season after the drama![]()
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Consumers are out of money and are starting to cut expenses in order:
Buy fewer snacks and drinks first
I'm not buying cars or anything $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $CarMax(KMX.US$
Let's do our best to wear clothes too $Nike(NKE.US$
I don't buy any electronic products $Best Buy(BBY.US$ $Target(TGT.US$
Is the computer still being replaced? $Dell Technologies(DELL.US$ $HP Inc(HPQ.US$
Is the phone still replaceable? $Apple(AAPL.US$
Did chasing dramas become the last expense to be cut? Also, it's only a few yuan a month. Even if you lose your job, get relief, and lose your old age, it's just that demand will be higher. However, with so many free things to watch online, are Netflix dramas really that good![]()
Recent gold $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ It's rising a bit fast. There is no way to keep up with this kind of increase.
Some people say they are worried about a war in the Middle East, but I don't think it can be fought.
Just imagine:
AB has two waves of mixed fights. There is a leader on each side. The two are holding sticks and are in the middle of PK. The A side scoundrel is currently at a loss.
At this point, if people on side A suddenly pull out their guns all at once... will this fight continue? Chances are that Party B abandoned the provocateur, and the others scattered and fled. This pact is over, isn't it![]()
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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mubbiiee : Lipstick economics, right? Actually, it's not necessarily true, unless the risk-return of essential stocks is better than treasury bonds. Also, factors such as declining profits must be taken into account. The conclusion is that the price isn't low enough, hehe
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: Currently, the entire stock market can only be used as a band; I really can't see long-term opportunities. Let's take a look at how long Netflix users can last.
mubbiiee 高贵的阿德莱德OP: According to Lao Bao's statement yesterday, isn't he bearish in the long run? I'm referring to the trend from six months to one year. If you analyzed the valuation yourself, wouldn't that also be the conclusion? Asset prices must return,
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: Yes, our conclusions are basically the same. There are currently no long-term opportunities. So either seize cash and wait for opportunities, or do we go into a period of excessive decline and rebound
mubbiiee 高贵的阿德莱德OP: Um, the big trend is gone, so I'm not going to be a short-term bully. I'm not that skilled, and it's still more comfortable to just lay back and win. Other than having to pay taxes, it's delicious to eat interest.