ASTS Earnings Preview: Space Tech Will Become Strategic Assets in Global Tensions

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$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ is scheduled to release its financial results post-market on March 02 ET. Currently, ASTS has not yet developed a complete constellation capability. However, it has already partnered with several major mobile network operators, and is expected to generate advance payments.

Core Financial Indicators

– ASTS's revenue is expected to be 41.55M for 2025Q2, up 2066.3% YOY;

– Net loss is estimated to be -$58.20 million, an increase of 62.31% compared to last year.

Two Things to Watch

Specific Progress in Commercial Implementation

The difference between ASTS and $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ , which also makes satellites, is that RKLB delivers the satellites themselves, while ASTS delivers communication services based on satellites. Its downstream customers include communication companies like $Verizon (VZ.US)$ , $AT&T (T.US)$ , and Vodafone.

As one of the first companies globally to achieve direct satellite connection for ordinary smartphones without specialized equipment, ASTS is expected to realize real commercial revenue in the second half of 2026.

Based on last quarter's financial report, some downstream customers have already started making advance payments, so the market expects a significant increase in revenue from very low levels. In the earnings report, attention should be paid to the implementation pace of the company's partnerships with telecom operators, such as the launch time of testing with Verizon in the U.S. market and whether network speeds meet standards.

Progress in Government and Defense Cooperation

The defense sector is an important growth point for the company. In February 2026, ASTS became a direct prime contractor for Space Development Agency's low-orbit satellite program, establishing a direct customer relationship to test seamless connections between satellites and U.S. military tactical radios. Previously, ASTS had been obtaining subcontracts through prime contractors. Therefore, this marks ASTS's first breakthrough as a prime contractor for U.S. government space projects. In the earnings report, investors should pay attention to the progress of this contract and whether any new government orders have been secured.

On the other hand, attention should be paid to the approval progress of spectrum resources, which are the core barrier to satellite communications. The company has obtained S-band MSS priority through acquisition, but implementation in various countries still depends on subsequent licensing and coordination. Meanwhile, it is pushing for long-term use arrangements for L-band MSS in North America, which still awaits key regulatory approvals (including from the FCC).

Option Market Signals

Currently, the company's put/call ratio is 0.50, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment. However, the company's implied volatility is at 112.95%, which remains at a relatively high level.

Summary of Risks and Opportunities

– Potential Positive Catalysts: New orders from the U.S. Space Development Agency

– Risks to Monitor: Commercialization progress falls short of expectations

– Valuation:

ASTS's PB Ratio is 18.15 times, which is at the 85th percentile of its historical range over the past five years.

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