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Astera Labs Q4 2025 earnings conference call

Key Takeaways (AI-Generated)

Financial Performance:

- Astera Labs achieved Q4 2025 revenue of $270.6 million, a 17% increase from the previous quarter, and a 92% increase compared to Q4 2024.

- Full year 2025 revenue was $852.5 million, marking a rise of 115% compared to the prior year.

- Q4 non-GAAP gross margin was 75.7%, slightly down 70 basis points from the September quarter, driven by a higher mix of hardware sales.

- Q4 non-GAAP operating expenses were $96 million, up $16 million from the previous quarter, due to expansion in R&D and the acquisition of aiXscale.

- Non-GAAP operating margins for Q4 were 40.2%, a decrease of 150 basis points from the previous quarter.

Business Progress:

- Astera Labs introduced new product lines and achieved several new design wins, significantly diversifying its customer base and operations.

- The company established an advanced design center in Israel to accelerate the development of high-bandwidth AI fabrics and emerging AI inference technologies.

- Key product families like Scorpio P-Series and Taurus showed strong performance with new customer shipments and substantial revenue growth throughout 2025.

Opportunities:

- Astera Labs is positioned for significant market expansion in the AI connectivity space, with a served addressable market projected to grow over 10x to $25 billion within 5 years.

- The company plans ongoing product line expansions and advancements, particularly in PCIe 6 solutions, and is set to capitalize on the shift to 800 gig switching platforms through new products like Taurus.

Next Quarter Guidance:

- Q1 2026 revenue is projected to be between $286 million and $297 million, representing a 6% to 10% increase from Q4 2025.

- Q1 non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be around 74%.

- Non-GAAP operating expenses for Q1 are anticipated to be between $112 million and $118 million.

- Non-GAAP fully diluted earnings per share for Q1 are expected to be approximately $0.53 to $0.54.

Risks:

- The company anticipates gradual growth for its Scorpio product line into 2027 as it begins high-volume production and faces challenges with new customer platform ramps.

- Operational risks linked to scaling up and the integration of new technologies and acquisitions.

Full Transcript (AI-Generated)

Operator

Products are optical engine solutions. Thanks.

Blayne Curtis

I actually wanted to ask in the last part, I thought it was interesting you've been talking more about optical, you know it's part of that warrant agreement. Can you maybe just talk about, you talked about it doubling your Tam maybe timing on that?

Jitendra Mohan

So we think that then we think that the optical for scale up the timing should be somewhere in 2028. We do believe that the initial deployment for optical technology, CPO in particular might happen with scale out and that might receive the deployment of scale up.

Blayne Curtis

Thanks guys, Congrats.

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Moore

Great, thank you. You talked a little bit about the OpEx increase, I guess it's a pretty big step function up. You know, can you talk about was the acquisition a part of that and it was small. And then, you know, as you look out to these optical scale up aspirations, I assume that's expensive. Just kind of any any incremental sense of you know, why the OpEx is coming up so much so quickly?

Michael Tate

Yeah, Joe, over the last couple of quarters we've been coming having a lot of dance dialogue with our customers and they're presenting us as significant revenue opportunities that, you know, we really thought now is the time to really invest in. You know, as we spoke on the call, the Tam is much bigger than we originally expected just you know, when we measured it just 1218 months ago. So we are we are increasing our investments to to pursue these opportunities.

These last last quarter in Q4 we did close the aiXscale acquisitions and now we have a full quarter in Q1. And then just recently in this quarter, we closed another acquihire where we got a very sizable capable team to help us scale up our new Israel design center where we just also brought in very exciting capable leadership as well. So this is all to pursue these these opportunities our customers are pushing us to, to to develop for them.

Joseph Moore

OK, thank you. And then you talked about UA Link. I know there's also a fair amount of noise over the course of the quarter about ESUN Ethernet scale up. Can you just kind of talk about the handicapping those two technologies and how you see those technologies coexisting going forward?

Jitendra Mohan

Yeah. So the scale up networking build, it remains a very large market and it will include proprietary approaches such as NV Link or Google's ICI and will also include the merchant and standard approaches such as PC Express, UALink, Ethernet and and ESUN. What we are seeing is that hyperscalers are are going to leverage the type of solutions that their software stack is designed for.

So for example, if a customer is using a memory centric protocol like NV Link or like PCI Express, they are likely to continue to use that and transition to UA Link as those solutions become available. At the same time, the customers that are using Ethernet are likely to stay with Ethernet and then maybe move to ESUN where ESUN becomes available.

This is overall a very big market and there is a lot of room for for different solutions to coexist. And we do indeed think that these solutions will coexist. We are primarily developing solutions where our customers are asking us to, which happens to be PCI Express, UALink and now increasingly on NVLink Fusion.

Joseph Moore

Great, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

Vivek Arya

Thanks for taking my question. On Scorpio, I'm curious if it achieved that 15% of sales I think milestone that you had said in Q4. And if it did, is this kind of 200 ish million, you know, with this 200 ish million run rate, where do you see the outlook for Scorpio, you know, at a high level for 2026?

Michael Tate

Yeah, yeah, Scorpio continues to perform very well. You know, it just launched for the first time in in Q2 of this year and it it did break above or 15% for the year and it it it grew very nicely in Q4. This is all on the Scorpio P primarily, which is scale out switching.

We did say we just started to ship initial volumes here in Scorpio X and that will have increasing volumes as we as we enter into 2026 with a much more material ramp in the back half, half of the year. So you know, Scorpio by far is our biggest Tam right now. So it it's it's you know, it's growing in a very fast clip as a result of that.

Vivek Arya

OK. And for my follow up, Jitendra, how do you see your content as NVIDIA moves to the Vera Rubin generation versus the Blackwell? Generation and how do you see whatever the NVIDIA racks are deployed in the Vera Rubin? Do you think you know they let them capture more of their proprietary content or do you still see enough opportunity for Astera or whatever Vera Rubin is installed? Thank you.

Jitendra Mohan

Yeah, great question. So as we have established now that the opportunity for Astera arises when our customers do custom deployments of the the the Grace Blackwell or in the future Vera Rubin reference designs. Very minimal opportunity with the reference design itself.

The initial ramps that Mike is referred to what happening as part of these customized deployment of Grace Blackwell platform by our lead hyperscaler customer. And as the hyperscaler customer announced at the public event, they want to continue to deploy Vera Rubin also as a as a custom deployment. So we will certainly do our best to make sure that we are part of that solution as well as the designs transition from Grace Blackwell to Vera Rubin.

Vivek Arya

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Tore Svanberg

Yes, thank you. Congratulations on the results and and Mike congratulations on your new role. I had a follow up question for Sanjay. Sanjay, when you talked about the SAM by 2030 $20 billion, you know you'll you'll be able to address half of that today. But you said you know PCIe UALink and then platform specific scale up topologies. And I'm just curious, is the world changing a little bit where you know, there's less reliance on standards and there's more platform specific scale up initiatives? And is that also why you're stepping up your OpEx as much as you are this quarter?

Sanjay Gajendra

If you think of scale up topology, you're interconnecting accelerators. And to that standpoint, the accelerators could be a merchant silicon or could. Be an internal custom ASIC and because these are homogeneous links and everyone is trying to eke out that the maximum amount. Amount of bandwidth and performance on the connectivity side. So in general, what you'll expect is there is quite a bit of customization that will be needed.

Now with Astera, we're unique in the sense that our fabrics are designed to be software defined in the sense. They can be updated to to do certain things that are. Custom and optimized for the specific scale up topology. So what we have tried to do is not do one silicon for every opportunity, but to be. Able to leverage same piece of silicon, but to be able to customize that in many different ways.

So in some ways we are making sure that the investment that we do is, is is managed and the differentiation comes from software rather than keep doing a unique silicon for everyone. Now having said that, the thing that we're seeing is a tremendous influx of opportunities and that's largely coming from the fact that, you know, we've spent about 12 to 15 months sort of being in the scale up domain and we have learned a lot.

There's a lot of unique things that become critical when you're designing scale up fabrics. And that learning has enabled us to, you know, better present our solution as well as the feature set that we're incorporating in our new product lines. And those are gaining interest and support from several new customers and to support that is where we see a need to to step up our R&D, meaning the time to invest is now. And this will help us as we think about the longer term growth of the company as well as our position in the scale up market.

Tore Svanberg

That that's great color. Thank you. And I've got a follow up for you Jitendra, just to to clarify, I think you said Scorpio X, so pre pre pre production still first half of this year, then you start the ramp with your lead customer second-half. But I think you also said that you expect to have some pre production with additional customers beyond your lead customer in the second-half with ramps and 27. Just want to make sure that I got that right.

Jitendra Mohan

Yeah, that's correct. Yeah. There is a lot of traction for the Scorpio X family for customers who are trying to use PCIe Express in the memory centric protocol for their scale up. We are fielding so many different calls and we expect some of those to get qualified towards the end of this year and then ramp in 27.

Tore Svanberg

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

Ross Seymore

Hi guys. Thanks for asking the question. And Mike, Congrats on the new role, you'll be missed. I guess my first question is on the OpEx side of things. You're basically spending about $100 million run rate more than than you were prior. I get that the revenue opportunity is larger, but can you give us a little bit of idea on, on what the time to revenue would be in this? When you say now's the time to invest, I know the 2030 numbers are big, but is that when today's investment pays off or should we expect things sooner than that? Just any more color on the OpEx would be helpful.

Michael Tate

Yeah, there there's a range, but you know the technology that we're developing does have a longer lead time there. But there are there are, you know, new opportunities that can be turned into silicon in relatively short order and then you have the qualification process with the customers. But you, you could, you could see, you know, from start to revenues in 18, 24 months on the earlier side.

But also keep in mind, you know, we've been looking at optical, you know, from the inception of the company knowing that, you know, at some point it was going to be very important as a connectivity supplier. So we've been putting the pieces together internally and, and including the, the, the new acquisition that we had last year.

But you know, we're, we're building something internal that, you know, other companies, you know, are, are, are paying billions of dollars for, you know, to get externally. So in, in by doing this, we're doing it the right way and we're, and we're, we're, we're building it this daring way a lot along with the input from our customers. So we our developments closely aligned with input from our customers as well.

Ross Seymore

Thanks for that. Mike. I guess is my follow up on to the Scorpio family. I believe you said it crossed 15% of sales in 2025. So I just want to clarify if that was true. But perhaps more importantly, any sort of bogeys as far as the growth rate this year, I believe in the past you talked about it would crossover and become your biggest product line at some point this year. Is that still the case? Any updates on those sorts of timing and magnitude?

Michael Tate

Yeah, So, yeah, so we, we originally set up for a 10% bogey. We we did, we did cross above 15% for 2025. And again, that's all just P Series X is for scale up is, is a much bigger, larger Tam for us and that, you know, we're starting to shift initial volumes in the first half, but the more material step up in the back half.

So the combination of those two will put us on a trajectory for it to be as our biggest product line. But you know, Aries and Taurus and Leo are all growing as well. So it's hard to know exactly when to crossover, but definitely at some point it will. It will. It's going to drive very good revenue growth for us.

Ross Seymore

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Your next question comes from Sebastien Naji with William Blair.

Sebastien Cyrus Naji

Great. Thank you for taking the question and Congrats on the results. Just in terms of the more customized solutions that you're building, is it right to think that your average ASP for the solution or the content opportunity should go up meaningfully versus some of your existing products? And is there anything to call out in terms of maybe a different margin or different profitability profile for those solutions? And to confirm, you're referring to the Scorpio X?

Sanjay Gajendra

That's right. Although the customs, sorry, didn't hear the first part. Yes, for the customized solutions that you're building for some of your hyperscaler customers, Yeah. So the custom solutions that we build like for example the NVLink Fusion opportunity that we noted. So the engagement model of course tends to be. Different, but the attach rate will also tend to be higher.

So I think from a volume standpoint it will be. It will be at a certain rate, but the ASPs, there will be some. Considerations that have to be applied because there will be blocks that come from. You know the, the partners that we work with. So end of the day, I think like Jitendra highlighted when it comes to our revenue content, both based on a native switch versus a custom solution.

You know, things sort of even up where on the native switches it tends to be 1 switch being shared across, you know, a few accelerators. Whereas in the custom solution type of products you're doing it one per accelerator, which means that you'll have higher attach rate, although the ASP might not be at the same level.

Jitendra Mohan

And may I, Sebastien, in general a helpful thing that we've found is every generation of XPU, our content has, has grown up so far. And we, we, we continue to head in that direction to having more dollar content per XPU generation.

Sebastien Cyrus Naji

Got it. OK, that that's really helpful. And maybe as a quick follow up, just on the Taurus line, is there a way to think about how much of the strong growth we're seeing there is coming from just strong underlying market growth versus Astera's ability to gain share in that market?

Sanjay Gajendra

So it's, I want to say both, but definitely the speeds have gone up from 400 to 800 gig, you know the. Need for active components whether it's on board or within cables in the form of AEC is growing, but that fact is not changing. Our business model is slightly different as probably you're aware, we don't do the whole cable. We do the modules that go inside the cable assemblies and rely on our cable partners to provide the the at scale deployment with multiple multiple vendors supporting the same opportunity.

So to that standpoint, what I would say is that you know we are seeing that transition happening. You can see that with some of the numbers that that we shared today. Our Taurus revenue has gone up Q4 and generally for the whole year it's about 4x. So we expect that trend to continue. Again, we won't be called in on on day one because of the business model that we have. But as volume picks up even for 800 gigs, what we're expecting is that Astera will come in strong with multiple cable suppliers using our module to support the high volume band.

Sebastien Cyrus Naji

Great. That's really helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from Sean O'Loughlin with TD Cowen.

Sean O'Loughlin

Hey, good afternoon guys, and thanks for letting me take the question. I have a question and Congrats on nice results. And Mike, Congrats on your retirement and hopefully a little bit of an easier new role at the company here. I wanted to ask on the warrant agreement and maybe get some background on sort of 1. You know, there's a, there's a period of, of exercise to 2033 I believe. And then, you know, there's a dollar amount associated with it to the extent that you're able to talk about sort of what drove the, you know, the two companies to reach the agreement. And is this should we think about this as as maybe like incremental to what you already had expected to to be doing with that customer over that time frame? And then anything you could give on linearity that'd be that'd be great. Thanks.

Michael Tate

Yeah, we, I can't go into much more detail than what we publicly disclose. You know, in the 8-K we did file the full warrant agreement. So you can you know, kind of get some of the more material terms out out of that filing. It does demonstrate the strong relationship that we have with Amazon. This is a a, a, a follow on warrant. We, we've had a previous warrant agreement in place, you know, and, and what happens is the warrants are earned as revenue milestones are achieved, which is the $6.5 billion that we, we outlined this for to account for the warrant.

You do take a noncash charge for the value of what vests and that goes directly against revenue and and effectively directly against gross margins as well. So as as the warrants are achieved, we, we, we are kind of modeling a, a you know a noncash hit to gross margins of about 2 points a quarter starting kind of in the Q2 timeframe. But you know the warrants have a life like like you outlined for 7 years.

Sean O'Loughlin

Great, thanks. And if I could ask another unfortunately financial follow up on the NVLink fusion agreements and whether it's with Amazon or whether it's with, you know, any other hyperscaler that might adopt that that topology, What is the, what does that financial arrangement look like? Is that a license that the hyperscaler is paying directly to NVIDIA and and they sort of grant you the the IP or is that a, is that something that gets incorporated into the ASP and the margin profile of that product?

Sanjay Gajendra

Yeah, yeah. And obviously we can't answer that question just given all the NDAs and other things that we need to be respectful of in general, what I would say is that it opens up a completely new set of opportunities for us to play in the NVLink ecosystem, which. We did not have a play so far. So to that standpoint, this is additive to everything that we're talking about. In terms of the exact business model, I think we'll let the hyperscalers or NVIDIA provide more color.

Sean O'Loughlin

OK, great. Thanks again guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

Karl Ackerman

Yes, Mike, you noted that some of the increase in OpEx is being driven by your investments in optical and follow your acquisition of aiXscale. Do you anticipate your customer opportunity for integrating your optical AEC glass cover technology is larger for a switch portfolio than your signal conditioning and SCM products? I have a follow up.

Jitendra Mohan

Yeah, I mean I would maybe let me take that and then Mike can chime in afterwards. I would say that the opportunity for including optical into scale up is actually a very large opportunity, probably larger than the signal conditioning opportunity that we have of the order of you know what we are saying for scale up fabric connectivity. We have not quite sized it up exactly, but it is a very large opportunity and we are working very closely with our customers to understand what their requirements are and what their time frames are and we'll be ready to intercept those. We believe for scale up in particular that's likely to be in 2028.

Sanjay Gajendra

Also just to maybe add to that, right now, I know optical is an important area for us to invest and we're doing that with some unique architecture and capabilities. I'd also say that the increase in investments we're doing like Mike outlined. These are also servicing opportunities on the fabric side. Which are much more based upon existing engagement and as customers are seeing the value of what we offer they're coming back with requests for you know additional lane count or radix configurations or features and things like that. So the investment that we're talking about including the Israel team that we set up, which will focus on AI fabrics, it's all, it's all being done in a way that, you know, we get the near term, mid term and long term growth setting us up nicely for, you know, building on, on the momentum we have and, and getting to a different scale from a revenue standpoint.

Karl Ackerman

Got it, very helpful. You indicated that you have Scorpio P design wins now with 3 hyperscalers, 2 of which are new. Are your Scorpio P designs based on custom compute designs or are they also being designed on custom GPU racks as well? And then clearly you're having traction here, so you can perhaps address the, you know, the opportunity that you see with Scorpio P extending into 2026. I know there's a lot of focus on Scorpio X, but perhaps you could spend some time on the engagements you have as well as the opportunity that you see on Scorpio P into 26? Thank you.

Sanjay Gajendra

Yeah, No, Scorpio P has been really, I mean it's mostly going into scale out use cases now that we have ramped the chip in reasonable volume over the last 3, 4 quarters. You know we are seeing additional customers specifically like we called out 2 new hyperscalers that have adopted it. They go into production little bit later towards the end of this year.

These design-ins are supporting platforms that are both merchant GPU based as well as custom accelerators and and we do expect these to add meaningful revenue for us in 2027. But beyond this, again, these are the ones we called out just given the significance of these design wins. But in general I want to say for the P series. Ever since we announced it's been a, it's been attracting a lot of customer interest and traction and we do have several design wins on that in different lane count configurations and so on.

So that continues to be a device that has been. Now I want to say at this point, we are probably still the only one that's in high volume production with our Gen 6 switches, so it is. It's serving many customers and use cases.

Karl Ackerman

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Srinivas Pajjuri with RBC Capital Markets.

Srinivas Pajjuri

Thank you and let me echo my Congrats, Mike. Look forward to I guess continuing to work with you, but it's been a pleasure over the past 20 plus years. My question, you know there's been a lot of skepticism about the growth of Aries retimers and you continue to show that you know this obviously this segment continues to grow and you're projecting growth for this year as well. If you could talk to us about what's driving that growth, is it primarily the units or is it the PCIe 6 transition and then or is it new customers? And as we go into 27, 28, how should we think about any potential implications as the market goes from copper to optical?

Jitendra Mohan

Yes. So the -- if you think about PCI Express, PCI Express is really the nervous system inside of a server. All of the significant components, whether it's a GPU or a CPU or a NIC card, they talk to each other over, over PCI Express. And we established this early lead in in PCI Express with PCI Express Gen 4 Gen 5 and now extending that into PCI Express Gen 6.

We see not only the continued growth in the what we call the chip down applications, but we also see more growth of PCI Express in cable applications where we sell our smart cable modules. That does give us an uplift in the ASPs. These devices are used in scale up applications and again as we all understand, scale up is a very rich opportunity where we have multiple connections and a lot of them. So we are definitely benefiting from that trend with PCI Express going from Gen 5 to Gen 6.

Now your question about transition from copper to optical. So most of our customers will continue to stay with copper for as long as they can. That has been their preference all this time we will reach a stage where you know, maybe the reach or the bandwidth is just high enough and is not able to be supported by copper. And in those cases, we do expect a transition to optical, but copper and optical will continue to coexist for a long period of time.

The transition to optical will likely come in the form of first like pluggable optics may be followed by near package optics and eventually the Holy Grail which is the co-packaged optics which you know all of us are working towards. But we expect to see the first deployments of co-packaged optics for scale up sometime in the 2028 time frame.

Srinivas Pajjuri

OK, got it. And then the other debate, Jitendra is obviously. UALink versus ESUN, I guess hypothetically if the market you know moves more toward ESUN, I'm just curious, I mean, do you? Have the capability to pivot to ESUN. And if so, how quickly can you do that? And, and I'm just curious because again, this, this is a debate that we can, you know, answer, you know, sitting here because it's, it's something that's going to happen in the future. But just wondering if if the market were to go to ESUN, you know how do you see your you know position, you know what kind of role do you anticipate playing in that market?

Jitendra Mohan

Yes. So I would say that we are much closer to the action. So we understand who's doing what largely for the initial deployments of the new scale up protocols whether it's UALink or Ethernet or ESUN from a capability standpoint it's definitely within reach. We can, we can if we choose to design an ESUN based solution we can. However, as has been the trend with Astera, we listen to our customers very closely and so far everybody is telling us to focus on UALink and that's what we are focusing on.

As you say, if things were to shift towards ESUN, we certainly have the capability and with the addition of the of the you know additional resources that we are deploying, we can definitely go in the direction of additional solutions. As a matter of fact I would say over time our aspiration really is to address the full connectivity TAM and not just limit to any one particular protocol.

Srinivas Pajjuri

Got it. Thank you, Jitendra.

Operator

Next Question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

Unknown Analyst

Hi, this is Robert on for Quinn. Thank you for taking the questions. First wanted just to double click more on to the for Astera AEC product offering. Can you maybe discuss how qualifications for your 800 gig AECs are progressing? And do you expect to be shipping 800 gig AECs to multiple hyperscalers this year?

Sanjay Gajendra

So 800 gig is obviously starting to ramp up right now. And to that standpoint, what I can say is that we're very closely engaged with that from a qualification process standpoint given our business model, which is slightly different. Like I highlighted early on, we come in as the volume starts expanding. So to that standpoint, you can expect a similar transition happening to our business as well with more deployments for 800 gigs, 800 gigs like.

We highlighted before is broad based meaning there are multiple customers that are using AECs for 800 gigs and those are opportunities that we expect to gain from from a revenue standpoint.

Unknown Analyst

Thanks for the color there. And then just quickly on Scorpio P, just wanted to double click a little bit more into that color. Do you expect these additional P series customers to reach kind of the size and scale I guess down the line as volume ramps with them kind of in the second-half of the year and beyond? I guess can these new customers be as big as your your main hyperscaler there?

Sanjay Gajendra

Yes, there is a potential for that. At least the ones that we called out now there are, like you noted, many P-Series opportunities and design wins we have, but specifically to the hyperscaler opportunities that we called out, these are mainstream use cases. So we do expect them to have the revenue impact like what we've had so far.

Unknown Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Your final question comes from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

Thomas O'Malley

Hey, guys. Thanks for sneaking me in. I just had one quick one And then a longer term one. So you announced 2 new hyperscalers for PCIe late in 26. You're saying revenue in 27? Are those US hyperscalers? Are those Chinese hyperscalers?

Jitendra Mohan

U.S.

Thomas O'Malley

And then on the longer term, I think you mentioned on the call about the MI 500 series supporting UALink obviously the 400 series, you know, supports UALink but it's over Ethernet. Are you saying that the 500 series will be native UALink or is it still going to be Ethernet supporting UALink Obviously, that's a big difference in what switches you're using. Thank you.

Jitendra Mohan

Tom, I don't want to speak for our AI customer, but if you look at some of the publicly released information, they have said that they will continue to support both, but they've also said that they believe UALink native is the highest performance scale up protocol.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back over to the presenters for any closing remarks.

Leslie Green

Thank you, Karly, and thank you everyone for your participation and questions. Please refer to our Investor Relations website for information regarding upcoming financial conferences and events. Thanks so much. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Details at Astera Labs IR

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