Arm's focus and Nvidia's future
The development of the AI market and technological progress are obvious to all, and many new technologies have been rapidly implemented in the rapid development of AI hardware! Due to the large-scale generation of AI models, there is almost no upper limit on the demand for GPU hardware. Perhaps many companies want to invest in GPU development! But none of them were able to form a competitive relationship with Nvidia! The reason is that even if GPUs are developed and produced, they cannot achieve the cost performance ratio of Nvidia's similar products! It will even be quickly eliminated! The investment went back to zero! Buying GPUs on a large scale is like upgrading a computer! Continued adoption of new GPUs on a larger scale and higher end is needed to adapt to future more advanced AI models! It's a huge process! After a few years, the now expensive high-end GPUs will be quickly phased out! This process and speed is far faster than the CPU's Law of Moore!
Here's the problem, AMD's GPU development is far behind Nvidia! Even with short-term mass adoption, they are rapidly being quickly phased out! Don't buy to boost performance!
Another unicorn is brewing! Currently, the company that has independent GPU R&D and patents is Arm. The problem is that this company is a local patent development company! “For example, if this company has the ability to develop and produce a complete set of automobiles, but the company only develops core automobile engines and energy technology, and sells patents to automobile manufacturers for profit!” , SoftBank acquired Arm and has never been involved in Arm's development in the GPU field! It is estimated that this year SoftBank will reduce Arm Holdings and use the capital from Arm to reduce its stock holdings to establish a new GPU R&D company on a par with Nvidia! If you know information about TSMC building a factory in Japan, you'll find that SoftBank is likely to enter the GPU R&D and manufacturing field! In other words, Arm has complete GPU technology and development capabilities! This is a Big Mac company that should have a market capitalization of a trillion dollars! But they want to give way to SoftBank's new company! So there are four companies that need close attention from 2024 to 2026! Arm, SoftBank, TSMC's Japanese factory, a new GPU company established by SoftBank! The latter two are being planned and in progress! Once the capital is in place, it will be completed quickly! The core of the problem is Arm's efforts to reduce SoftBank holdings after March! That's the heart of the matter! This is also a test of SoftBank's intelligence and ability to carry out capital operations! Reducing holdings too much will lower the stock price! Reducing holdings too much will reduce the total market value! SoftBank needs a reasonable and gradual release of stocks while continuously boosting stock prices while obtaining the capital required for new GPU companies to complete the establishment and operation of new GPU companies! If all goes well! The new GPU company will rank fourth after Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, and may also be in second or third place! After all, SoftBank has no US control over China's AI chips! Japan can fill the gap! So in a sense, Arm will decide whether SoftBank will be the owner of two listed companies with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion and $300 billion respectively in the next 2 years! Or maybe it's just a dream! The whole story begins when SoftBank reduced Arm holdings this year! When Arm's stock price skyrocketed, that's when the whole story began! As much GPU development capital does SoftBank require, Arm will rise to what level! Because the security deposit for the 100 billion dollar capital raised by SoftBank came from Arm.
So this is the reason why Arm's stock price hasn't risen! When all the planning and layout didn't begin! Arm doesn't allow large fluctuations! It's not beneficial! Because the fluctuation range is determined based on capital requirements! Not profit expectations! In the context of the endless development of AI! The number and capabilities of GPUs have become the core of determining the country's strategic strength in the future! So you can't just have one Nvidia! Although Nvidia is the best! But the market needs partners! This is the background behind SoftBank's planning for a new GPU company! SoftBank is a capital operation company! If SoftBank reduces its arm holdings, but a new GPU company cannot be established, it doesn't matter, because SoftBank's holdings reduction will enable other companies to enhance cooperation with Arm! Don't forget that many of Arm's GPU technologies are also partnering with Nvidia! We'll notice that many large companies are starting to accelerate their collaboration with Arm, the most important company after Nvidia and Chatgpt! AI is the story of these three companies, in different order and impact!
We don't rule out that with the development of AI technology, GPU research and development will begin to have the ability to develop models themselves! Maybe this is just a story for the future! Perhaps there are other emerging GPU development geniuses that have developed new technologies to push AI further!
Anyway, Arm's story was just beginning when SoftBank reduced its stock holdings! The current stock price doesn't reflect its value! Any price below 150 yuan is acceptable!
Arm is making great strides to become the new Big Mac! It's still being frantically attacked by capital and turned into ordinary garbage! It all depends on the results of SoftBank's capital operation!
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72753806 : WithArmJust go to the bank for stock loans; there is no need to reduce your holdings.
Brooks Falls : The SoftBank Blind Cat experienced a sharp rise in arms like a dead mouse. You can really admire him manipulating stock prices like this