Are US stock valuations inflated? A review of September 22-23
A trip to Fukuoka, filled with attractions for all ages, would not be complete without visiting the aquarium. The underwater world is fascinating, but unexpectedly, the young child felt afraid when facing real marine creatures.
Only adults make choices; children want everything: one toy car in the left hand, another in the right. The hat-wearing style fully blends into the local society without any sense of incongruity.
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The Hang Seng Index has experienced pullbacks over the past four days—a phenomenon that requires extreme caution as previously mentioned. After encountering resistance at the significant psychological level of 27,050 points, the sustained decline may indicate the beginning of a bearish phase after reaching the target price. If it closes below 26,000 points again, the next critical level will be 25,800. If it breaks below this major threshold, deeper pullbacks may follow, warranting attention to hedging strategies. $CSOP HANG SENG INDEX DAILY (-2X) INVERSE PRODUCT (07500.HK)$ $CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07552.HK)$。
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Currently undergoing consolidation on a small trading range, it remains the strongest among many technology giants; resistance is at 160, with support at 155.
$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ The decline continues; if it falls below 100 again, it will quickly drop to 95 or even lower levels, signaling a potential downtrend. $BIMTUAN@EP2603B.P (20135.HK)$ The support level is set at 108.
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ Continuing to rise slowly upward along the 10-day line, with support from below pushing up to 67.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ If it drops again near the critical level of 55 and falls below 54.5, then the previous breakout would be considered false, and a downturn toward the $50 level is likely. Hedging strategies should be considered. $BIXIAMI@EP2602A.P (17907.HK)$ 。
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Be cautious about short-term pullback pressures, as the bearish engulfing pattern formed on September 18 creates significant downward pressure. Support must hold at 625; otherwise, the next levels to watch are 619 or even lower at 599, with hedging possibilities to consider. $BITENCT@EP2603B.P (20518.HK)$ 。
$SENSETIME-W (00020.HK)$ The trend remains strong, but given the substantial short-term gains, it is reasonable for the market to consolidate within a narrow range at this level. $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ It is expected to enter a consolidation phase, as the accumulated short-term gains have been substantial.
Regarding other individual stocks, $SDHG (00412.HK)$ A rebound occurred after a sharp decline; however, caution is warranted, as there remains the possibility of another sharp drop once the rebound concludes. $ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$ As gold has broken through its historical highs again, the related IPOs have once again become a focal point. It is estimated that being allocated shares in the IPO could result in significant gains. $BUTONG GROUP (06090.HK)$ The share price surged over 40% on the first day of listing. The high-end maternal and infant market is unexpectedly a blue ocean: the company's operating revenue has achieved a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as high as 56.9%, and its adjusted profit CAGR reached an astonishing 236.8%. This indicates significant potential for future growth, which remains worth monitoring.
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It is surprising to see Powell directly criticizing the valuation levels in the U.S. stock market. Such remarks from prominent figures have created confusion. Although there is some correlation between the stock market and economic conditions, as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, singling out the stock market instead of addressing the real economy raises suspicions of overstepping his role. However, this further suggests that Powell may be attempting to divert public attention—he is likely very concerned about the possibility of stagflation in the future. Regardless, we should respect the trend of the Nasdaq index: the critical level of 24,000 points serves as a key support-resistance zone, and if it breaks below this level, hedging strategies must be considered. $CSOP NASDAQ-100 Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07568.HK)$ 。
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ After a strong bullish candle broke above the previous high of 184 on Monday night, yesterday’s trading lacked follow-through momentum. It is crucial to monitor whether volatility around this level reoccurs. If the price consolidates again and subsequently breaks below the key level of 170, a double-top pattern will form on the daily chart. At that point, hedging possibilities must be carefully evaluated. $CSOP NVIDIA Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07388.HK)$ However, if the consolidation is followed by another breakout above 184, the price could continue rising. $CSOP NVIDIA Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07788.HK)$ 。 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ The short-term critical support-resistance level at $300 remains intact, and holding above this level still presents upward potential. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The short-term upward trend is nearing its end, with 440 serving as the critical resistance level for today. The semiconductor sector continues to demonstrate strong performance. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Accelerating upward once again, under these circumstances, the price is highly likely to reach the psychological threshold of $300. $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ The market remains in a sustained upward trend. $Intel (INTC.US)$ The support below at 27.3 may also indicate a transition from the first phase to the second phase.
1. Position trading executed.
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After engaging in ultra-short-term operations for some time, approximately half of the positions are still held; solid-state batteries have the potential to become a core technology for electric vehicles, making this sector worthy of in-depth research.
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Executed $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ A brief hedging deployment was carried out, with the main focus being on shorting the weakest constituent stocks to hedge against risks associated with holding Hong Kong stocks.
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$HORIZONROBOT-W (09660.HK)$ $XTALPI (02228.HK)$ It remains an important threshold for medium- to long-term deployment, but due to the price falling below the psychologically significant $10 level again, a slight reduction in holdings was executed.
$CSOP Gold Futures Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07299.HK)$ After securing profits exceeding three-quarters, the continued rise in gold prices suggests that it may be necessary to consider re-entering the market as the trend in gold is highly significant and worth close attention. $CSOP Tesla Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07766.HK)$ Almost all profits have been realized; the key now is whether Tesla's share price will decisively fall below 400, which would be pivotal for market sentiment.
2. Reflection
"Turning迂into directness and adversity into advantage" — my understanding of this military strategy grows deeper over time. In markets, we often observe a unique reality: asset price trends frequently remain flat, spending most of their time neither in uptrends nor downtrends. More often, they consolidate or fluctuate irregularly. However, when the timing is right, trends can develop rapidly: sometimes, a year’s gains can occur in a single explosive day. Yet this is not entirely random—often, patterns emerge. Whether we ultimately capitalize on these opportunities depends on our wisdom, patience, and courage to execute strategic moves accordingly.
3. Deployment
$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ The possibility of entering from the third phase to the fourth phase has become evident; under these circumstances, it is worth closely monitoring the relevant short-selling strategies. $CSOP MicroStrategy Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (07399.HK)$ The defensive position is set at 353, with a target reaching the 250 level. $CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07747.HK)$ It remains in the strongest trend. Failing to decisively enter during the consolidation phase was indeed a missed optimal opportunity.
Among U.S. stocks, most of the key stocks have already seen significant increases, so there are currently no individual stocks worth highlighting at this juncture. On the contrary, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ A downward movement may occur at any time, as the stock price has clearly formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart, and potentially also on the weekly chart. Amazon could become a casualty in the AI competition due to the exceedingly high costs associated with AI infrastructure development.
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