“Apple with AI Delays (AAPL)” Reversal due to AI Advances?!
Magnificent Seven from the 7 major US tech companiesThere was a division between light and dark in stock prices from the beginning of 2024. On a quarterly basis, January-March $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$maintained the top position in terms of stock price growth rate, and then $Meta Platforms(META.US$ 、 $Amazon(AMZN.US$ 、 $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ 、 $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US$ and continued.Both maintained strong sales in 2023 and continued to growI did. Meanwhile, $Tesla(TSLA.US$ is down 29%, $Apple(AAPL.US$ fell 11%,Retrograde safetyIt became.
Many institutional investors presented quarterly stock price performanceReview and evaluate performance on a quarterly basisThen,Develop an investment strategy for the next quarterThis is because there is a strong tendency to do it. abovementionedMAGNIFICENT SEVEN's stock price performanceWhen I saw it, some fund managersI'm going to think about whether there is a chance for a reversal in retrograde stocks。
A return reversal perspectiveIf you look at it, the rate of decline is largeTesla may be more likely to get more attention。However, against the companyEven among institutional investorsLikes and dislikes are divided. Kathy Wood, who is known as one of Tesla's biggest fans, seems to have bought more Tesla shares during the recent downturn. The same person will operate it $ARK ETFs(BK2551.US$ On the ownership list (as of 4/15)Tesla is back in the leadI jumped forward.
AppleAs forThere is also a supporting factor for stock prices called stock buybacks in Buffett stocksI have it.It is easy to rise due to the list of candidate stocks that are expected to reverseIt is conceivable. Currently, it seems that interest among individual investors is growing in response to purchase recommendations from analysts and reports surrounding AI development.
★ The “Mac” series is equipped with a new chip with improved AI performance
Bloomberg is on 4/12,AppleAs part of a broader effort to incorporate AI functions into all products,Aiming to update all models in the “Mac” series with “M4”It was reported. The “M4” is a processor independently developed by Apple, and it is currently the latest “M3” next-generation chip.I liked the report, and Apple stock rose 4% on 4/11I did it.
Sales composition ratio of “Mac”If you check (2023/12),About 8% of the totalSo, it's far smaller than 52% of the main “iPhone.” Therefore, even if sales of “AI Macs” are strong,The boost in sales is expected to be limited。
Nevertheless, Apple stocksWhat was the 4% increase in response to reports、The AI elementFor Apple stocksIt confirms how important it is. In addition, the current movement“Part of a broader effort to incorporate AI functionality into all products”Maybe it's because of that. In other words, the fact that Apple, which is lagging behind due to AI, is accelerating its movement toward recovery can be an evaluation point. Therefore,If materials surrounding the progress of AI development continue,Against Apple stockThere is a possibility that review purchases will continue。
★ The long-awaited AI strategy is expected to be announced in June
AppleOn March 26th, the annualWorld Developers Conference (WWDC) will be held from 6/10 to 14Then it was announced. According to Bloomberg, “According to multiple stakeholders familiar with the situation, in the presentationThe emphasis is on AI”, “ScheduledBasic iPhone softwareRegarding the next version “iOS 18,”“New AI strategies will take center stage” outlookThat's it.
AppleOn March 26th, the annualWorld Developers Conference (WWDC) will be held from 6/10 to 14Then it was announced. According to Bloomberg, “According to multiple stakeholders familiar with the situation, in the presentationThe emphasis is on AI”, “ScheduledBasic iPhone softwareRegarding the next version “iOS 18,”“New AI strategies will take center stage” outlookThat's it.
AppleWWDC in JuneWhen a more clear path is shown for AI strategies, it will be positive material. At least, “the AI strategy is expected to be announced in June”、A supporting factor for Apple stock in terms of time scheduleIt is conceivable that it will become.The divergence from target stock prices and reasonable valuations also seem to be factors in review purchasesThat's it.
★ iPhone sales are expected to recover in the second half of the year
Prior to WWDC in JuneApple plans to announce financial results on 5/2that's it. This time'sIn financial results announcements, in particularSales trends in the main “iPhone” division will attract attention. Regarding iPhone sales, this is because materials showing a 10% reduction based on the number of units shipped were released on 4/15.
Prior to WWDC in JuneApple plans to announce financial results on 5/2that's it. This time'sIn financial results announcements, in particularSales trends in the main “iPhone” division will attract attention. Regarding iPhone sales, this is because materials showing a 10% reduction based on the number of units shipped were released on 4/15.
According to data from research firm IDC,Apple's smartphone shipments from January to March decreased 9.6% compared to the same period last yearWhereas I did, the competitor'sSamsung Electronics declined 0.7% from the same periodIt stayed at. As a result,Samsung Electronics replaced Apple and took the leadIt became.
Samsung Electronics was ahead of AppleI put it in” AI smartphone”It's unclear whether it was due to it. However, since it is thought that there is a sufficient possibility, it would be necessary for Apple to hurry up the introduction of the “AI iPhone.” At WWDC in mid-June for AppleThe pressure to reveal the details of the “AI iPhone” has increased even moreMaybe.
Also,Market forecast for iPhone sales for the January-March fiscal year(Bloomberg tally, same as below)8.2% decrease from the same period last yearWhereas it isSame 9.6% decrease based on IDC shipmentsIt became. It was suggested that market forecasts were slightly weaker. IDC data revealedOn April 15, Apple shares fell 2%I did it. There were many reports that they were disgusted by the slowdown in iPhone growth. However,Concerns about the situation in the Middle East and a rise in long-term interest rates on 4/15atTech giants almost fell by around 2%Doing it. Based on that,There is also a possibility that concerns about the slowdown in iPhone sales have been factored into stock prices to some extent。
Future iPhone salesThe outlook is expected to continue to slow in the April-6 fiscal year. However, the rate of decline compared to the same period last year has shrunk, and it is expected that the next fiscal year ending 7-9 will turn to an increase. In other words,Sales are expected to recover towards the second half of the yearThat's it.
On a full year basisWell then,The 2024/12 fiscal year continued to decline following the previous fiscal yearI will, butThe 2025/12 fiscal year is expected to turn positive. The impact of the recovery in the smartphone market and the replacement cycle is in the background.If Apple introduces iPhones equipped with AI as soon as possible、It is also expected to further boost sales. Overall, it can be said that investment interest is increasing.
Created April 16, 2024 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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港区貧困男子 : good article!
ありがとう星 : I like Apple and bought a lot
Just a little patience
Thank you for telling me the details ♡