Crypto Market Rebounds: Missouri Bill Passed, Can the Positive Momentum Continue?

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After Bitcoin's $75K Crash: What is the Market Outlook of Cathie Wood & Other Crypto Whales?

Crypto-Moo joined discussion · Feb 1 02:30

The cryptocurrency market collapsed Saturday morning as $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ plummeted to $75,000 during Asian trading hours—its lowest level since April 2025, erasing nearly 300 days of gains.

After Bitcoin's $75K Crash: What is the Market Outlook of Cathie Wood & Other Crypto Whales?

In a historic shift, Bitcoin fell out of the global top 10 assets by market cap for the first time in years, now ranking 13th with a market cap of approximately $1.56 trillion. Bitcoin currently trades between $78,000-79,000.

$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ fell hardest, once dropping 11.8% to $2,370 before recovering to $2,400. Other majors followed: $Solana (SOL.CC)$ down ~10% to $105; $Binance Coin (BNB.CC)$ below $800.

The total crypto market cap shrank to $2.738 trillion (down 5.7%), while the Fear and Greed Index crashed to 18—extreme fear territory.

Why the Crash: Multiple Bearish Factors Converge

Geopolitical Flashpoint: Explosions at Iran's Bandar Abbas port—handling 20% of global seaborne oil—triggered immediate risk-off sentiment despite no claimed responsibility, reigniting Middle East escalation fears.

Fed Chair Uncertainty: Potential leadership change raises hawkish policy risks. A new chair favoring rate hikes or balance sheet contraction could squeeze liquidity amid the government shutdown, disrupting rate-cut expectations and triggering capital flight to dollars and Treasuries.

Government Shutdown: Friday's failed spending bill froze hundreds of billions in liquidity. Though brief, this dysfunction amplifies institutional caution, driving indiscriminate capital flight from risk assets.

Precious Metals Collapse: Gold plunged 12% and silver crashed 36% on January 31 - gold's worst day in 40 years, silver's worst ever. This shattered the "gold up, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ up" correlation, revealing a deeper liquidity crisis amid rumored regional bank stress.

The 1011 Shadow & Exchange Trust Crisis: In October 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced an unprecedented liquidation crisis. Recently, OKX's CEO and Ark Invest's Cathie Wood publicly accused Binance of market manipulation, sparking heated debate that has significantly affected investor trust in both cryptocurrency and exchanges. The controversy led to a massive exodus of $6.99 billion from Binance within just seven days, raising serious concerns about market stability and the integrity of major trading platforms.

Crypto Big Shots React

The flash crash sparked a range of perspectives across trading desks:

@Cathie Wood: Position Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and HYPE Could be Good Diversifiers.

In response to investor uncertainty following gold's recent pullback, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood suggested a diversification strategy, stating that "contrary to prevailing views, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$, $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$, $Solana (SOL.CC)$, and HYPE could serve as viable portfolio diversifiers."

@Michael Saylor, MSTR's Executive Chairman: Built for the Long Run.

Bitcoin briefly dropped to $75k this morning, falling below $Strategy (MSTR.US)$'s average cost of ~$76,037/BTC, triggering significant liquidations. As Bitcoin rose back to around $78k, the current mNAV is 1.14.

@Barry Silbert, Grayscale's Chairman: My picks: BTC,ETH,SOL,ZEC,TAO

Barry Silbert thinks the crash is actually healthier for the market, and he will bet on $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$, $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$, $Solana (SOL.CC)$, $Zcash (ZEC.CC)$ for the next massive capital rotation into the Crypto market.

@Gracy Chen, Bitget's CEO: Time to Buy the Dip?

Chen suggested that while investors with high positions might want to wait, those with lower exposure could consider buying at current levels.

In another tweet during Bitcoin's plunge, she reinforced Bitget's confidence in the market by revealing that the exchange has been consistently accumulating $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ on a monthly basis since 2025, demonstrating their long-term bullish stance despite short-term volatility.

@Mike McGlone, Bloomberg: Both Silver and BTC will go down in 2026

Bloomberg's Senior Commodity Strategists, Mike McGlone, is predicting that silver's January 2026 peak and Bitcoin's October 2025 peak signal the end of the inflation-driven rally, with 2026 marking a shift to deflation where both assets will potentially decline continuously.

@Merlijn, Crypto Analyst, Key Support Level Analysis

Bitcoin's critical support level is $78,000 right now - holding it means a healthy correction, breaking below it triggers a deeper drop toward $76,000.

@EmberCN, Crypto Analyst: MSTR and BNMR Face Mounting Losses as Crypto Prices Tumble

$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ holds 712,600 BTC at an average cost of $76,037—just $2,000 below current $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ price, meaning their profits have nearly evaporated. Tom Lee's $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ is underwater with 4.24 million ETH bought at $3,849, now sitting on $5.92 billion in losses (-36%) as $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ trades around $2,400

Market Trading Insights

The market has returned to April 2025 levels amid weak liquidity. The key question now: where will the sell-off find its next wave of buyers? Last April, buyers emerged at around $75,000, temporarily halting the decline, making this level a critical focal point today. So how should we determine our trading strategy from here? Here are the key insights：

Major Bottom Signal?

Key Bitcoin Accumulation Indicator Hits Lowest Level Since 2023

On February 1, 2026, Bitcoin's ahr999 hoarding indicator fell below 0.45 for the first time in 839 days, marking the first such signal since October 16, 2023. The ahr999 formula—calculated as (BTC Price / 200-day DCA Cost) × (BTC Price / Exponential Growth Valuation)—combines short-term cost basis with long-term fair value metrics to identify exceptional accumulation zones.

Historically, readings below 0.45 have consistently marked major market bottoms, occurring less than once every two years and appearing only 8.5% of the time throughout Bitcoin's history.

The 839-day gap between signals suggests extreme oversold conditions rarely seen in Bitcoin's cycle. The last signal in October 2023 preceded Bitcoin's rally to $126,080. Current market confluence strengthens the bullish case: Fear Index at 18, $22 billion in deleveraged positions, and price near institutional cost bases.

Analyst Sea Bitcoin notes these signals have never failed to precede major recoveries, suggesting a strategic entry point for patient capital. With $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ trading at $77,730—35% below its October 2025 high—the indicator's rare appearance may signal the bottom is in.

"Whales" are Buying the Dip

The divide: "Whales" are Buying the Dip while everyone else sells off

According to CoinDesk, large bitcoin investors, or "whales" holding 10,000 BTC or more, are currently the only group buying as prices plummet, while all other holder cohorts are selling. According to Glassnode's onchain data, these largest whales have been in a "light accumulation" phase and maintained a neutral-to-slightly-positive balance trend since bitcoin fell to $80,000 in late November, even as prices now trade near $78,000.

In stark contrast, all smaller cohorts are net sellers, particularly retail holders with less than 10 BTC who have been persistently selling for over a month, reflecting continued risk aversion among smaller participants.

Gold's Historic Peak Signals Potential Bitcoin Pivot

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, who first bought Bitcoin in 2015 at under $500, maintains her bullish outlook despite BTC crashing below $80K. ARK still projects Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.

ARK's Digital Assets Research Director Lorenzo Valente highlights a critical metric: gold's market cap now equals 170% of U.S. M2 money supply—matching 1934 Depression levels. "Gold is as expensive as it can be," Valente noted. Such peaks typically mark turning points; gold crashed 60% after the 1980's similar peak.

Wood emphasizes $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ and gold rarely move together (0.14 correlation since 2020). Yet historically, gold rallies preceded Bitcoin surges in past bull runs.

Despite gold hitting $5,594.82/oz on Jan. 30, 2026 before crashing to $4,893.20, Bitcoin failed to capture rotating capital. BTC fell 7.5% in 24 hours to $77,730—35% below its October 2025 high of $126,080. The "debasement trade" suggested Bitcoin and precious metals should surge when the dollar weakens, but $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ offered no meaningful response as gold and silver hit record highs. Ark sees this as a "pivot moment"—ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and regulatory clarity may make this cycle different from past bear markets.

While the recent market plunge may offer trading insights, investors must remain vigilant and closely monitor liquidity shifts. No one—not even seasoned traders—can accurately predict market bottoms or turning points. Approach the market with humility and caution, always considering worst-case scenarios.

Monday's Critical Watch Points

Market analysts highlight the following factors worth close attention:

- Asian and North American Stock Markets Open: Whether panic spreads to traditional markets

- Middle East Developments: Geopolitical tension escalation will directly impact volatility pricing

- U.S. Congressional Action: Senate reconvenes Monday; whether temporary appropriations pass will influence market confidence

Summary

Currently, Bitcoin remains range-bound as traders watch whether the weekend selloff will attract fresh demand or trigger deeper downside. The convergence of signals is unprecedented: extreme fear readings, rare accumulation indicators, and gold's potential peak—yet overshadowed by geopolitical flashpoints and institutional uncertainty.

The next 48 hours will be telling. Asian markets open first, setting the tone for risk appetite. If equities hold and Middle East tensions ease, Bitcoin could stabilize at current levels. But if panic spreads to traditional markets or the $78,000 support breaks, the path to $76,000—or lower—could accelerate quickly.