About the “Follow-up Day (FTD)”
The concept of a “follow-up day (FTD)” was first proposed by William.J. O'Neil in the book “Laughing Stock Market”. It describes the concept of starting an upward trend caused by the main index (SPX) rising more than 1.5% and trading volume exceeding the 50-day EMA on the 4th to 7th (sometimes even the 10th and 11th days) after the market bottomed out.
Later, minor revisions and additions were made in his subsequent book “The Principles of Stock Trading” (written after 2003): 1.5% was changed to 1.7%, and the success rate is estimated to be about 75%-80%, and it is required to be prepared for withdrawal if trading volume expands and falls sharply in the future.
Back now, more than 5 months have passed since the last SPX follow-up day, November 2 (Thursday). SPX rose 1.89% on that day, and the trading volume exceeded the 50-day average, thus starting the upward trend in the past 5 months; currently, SPX has adjusted from a high point on the 19th, reaching 4 weeks after Friday (today). There is a chance that there will be a potential follow-up date on Friday. Although I am skeptical about the “one-legged” market adjustment, I still need to believe in objective facts and act quickly; if it doesn't happen, continue to be patient 🚴🏻
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