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Equities and currency slump, lobster emerges as game-changer

One moment people were discussing the dual stock and currency sell-off, and the next moment the market was ignited by a seemingly 'ridiculous' concept – the 'lobster' concept.

Many people might feel that this kind of market movement is too emotional, right?

However, if you take a longer-term view, you’ll find that this trend actually aligns very well with historical market patterns.

Because market reversals often don’t begin with fundamentals but are instead triggered by emotional tipping points.

1. Why does the market tend to see an emotional rebound after a simultaneous crash in stocks and currency?

What we refer to as a 'dual crash' in stocks and currency essentially involves two things happening at the same time:

A decline in the stock market

Depreciation of the local currency and capital outflows

When these two factors occur simultaneously, market sentiment tends to deteriorate rapidly. However, an interesting historical pattern is that a short-term rebound is more likely to occur after such dual crashes.

The reason is simple – when funds have already started panic withdrawals, the market has typically entered an extreme emotional zone.

And extreme emotions often only need one event to ignite them.

What ignited the market this time is the so-called 'Lobster Concept'.

Second, why did a 'Lobster Concept' cause a collective rebound in tech stocks?

The hottest topic in the market these past two days has been the OpenClaw project within the AI circle.

Simply put, the logic behind these AI products is to use AI agents to automatically complete tasks, such as managing accounts, handling office workflows, and generating content.

Tencent has even directly launched a corresponding product portfolio, including:WorkBuddy, QClaw, Lighthouse

These tools can even remotely control computers via WeChat to execute tasks.

As soon as the market saw this direction, it immediately began speculating on related companies.
$MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$$KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$$UNISOUND (09678.HK)$

MiniMax once surged more than 23%, with its market value breaking through 300 billion Hong Kong dollars. Even more astonishingly, MiniMax's market value increased by about 130 billion Hong Kong dollars in just two days.

At the same time, heavyweight technology stocks in the Hong Kong stock market were also driven up: $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Surged over 7%
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Followed the rise
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ strengthen
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Rose 2.17% on the day.

So many people think it's 'lobster driving the Hong Kong stock market'.

But in reality, this is just the tipping point of sentiment.

The real logic is:

The market has fallen to an extreme of sentiment, only lacking a story.

Third, the real rule of the market: sentiment bottoming out + new narrative

Rebounds in the capital markets often follow a fixed structure:

Step one: panic sets in after a decline

Step Two: A new narrative emerges

Step Three: Capital seizes the opportunity

The 'lobster concept' is, in fact, a new narrative

Similar events have occurred many times throughout history:

Mobile Internet in 2013

New energy in 2020

AI large models in 2023

At the beginning of every major market trend, it always looks 'unbelievable'

But its purpose is not to prove the future; rather, it is to:

Give investors a reason to jump in

Fourth, the US stock market also has a similar historical pattern

If you shift your perspective to the US stock market, you'll discover another very interesting pattern: the midterm election cycle.

There is a classic statistic in the US stock market: since 1930, the average gain in midterm election years has been only about 4%-5%.

But the truly critical data point is this: in the year following a midterm election, the S&P averages an increase of about 16%.

Even more striking: in the 18 midterm elections since 1950, the market rose every time during the 12 months following the election.

Why does this pattern occur?

There is only one core reason: the disappearance of political uncertainty.

Fifth, why is it difficult for the market to keep falling before the midterm elections?

Because there is a very pragmatic issue in American politics:Votes。

If the economy is weak and the stock market continues to fall, the ruling party often loses a large number of seats in the midterm elections.

Almost all presidents in history have lost congressional seats during midterm elections.

Therefore, during election cycles, the government often takes various measures to stabilize the economy:

For example:

fiscal stimulus

Interest rate cut expectations

Energy policy

Infrastructure spending

and even includingCreating external events to divert domestic issues.

6. The historical relationship between wars and economic cycles

Historically, there is indeed some correlation between wars and economic cycles:

For example:

World War II drove an explosion in American industry.

The Korean War stimulated the military industry

The Gulf War boosted the energy and military sectors

At the market level, these events all lead to the same outcome:Fiscal expansion.And fiscal expansion, in essence, is:Injecting liquidity into the market.

This is also why during many geopolitical conflicts:

Energy

Defense/military industry

Commodities

They often become the core sectors of the market.

Seven, so what is the real logic behind the market?

If you look at Hong Kong stocks and US stocks together, you will find an interesting commonality:The market is not short of negative factors,What's lacking is a reason to trigger a rebound.

And what truly drives the market are actually just two things:

Sentiment + Liquidity.

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