9.12 FPG Gold Trend Analysis

XAUUSD H4

The CPI data for August in the United States was announced last night, recording 2.5%, which was lower than market expectations. The CPI has been declining for five consecutive months, reaching the lowest level since February 2021. After the data was released, the market significantly reduced its expectations of a 50 basis points interest rate cut in the rate decision six days later, believing that the cooling of inflation is not enough to support a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which will start a rate cut cycle in a more moderate manner. According to the data provided by CME this morning, the market's expectation of a 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped from 35% yesterday afternoon to 14%, and the US dollar index also rebounded from a low of 101.2 to 101.8. The rise in the US dollar index has led to a decline in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, before the data was announced, gold made an attempt to touch the upper range mentioned earlier. After reaching a high of 2529 during the day, there was a short-term price convergence pattern. After the data was released, the gold price dropped sharply and returned to the previous mentioned range watershed, reaching a low of 2500, and finally closed near 2510. The trend of gold price is consistent with the previous mention of oscillation in the upper range. Continue to pay attention to the price fluctuations in the larger range of 2530-2470, as well as the support and resistance near 2500-2508, which divide the large range into two parts. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be announced tonight, which may have a significant impact on gold price in the short term.

There is resistance at 2510 on the upper line, 2520 on the second line, and 2530 on the third line.

The lower first line support is 2508, the second line support is 2500, and the third line support is 2493.

# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #